Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

You Know How This Ends Right? This Ends Through War.
SHTF Plan ^ | 12-31-2012 | Mac Slavo

Posted on 12/31/2012 9:07:36 PM PST by blam

You Know How This Ends Right? This Ends Through War.

Mac Slavo
December 31st, 2012

In 2006, when Americans were flying high on ever-expanding credit and double digit real estate growth, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass came to the conclusion that something was very wrong. He and his investors determined that a massive real estate bubble was forming in sub-prime mortgages. But rather than just making a prediction, they put their money where their mouth was, and took a $4 billion gamble that the real estate market was about to detonate.

At the time, many in the industry and within financial circles thought him crazy.

History, however, proves he was right.

When the real estate bubble did finally burst, stock markets plummeted and mortgage backed securities fell to pennies on the dollar. Bass and his hedge fund made billions in the process.

Bass’ foresight was 20/20, and now he has issued a warning so dire that it, like the real estate crisis and recession that followed, is unimaginable for most Americans.

In many of these situations the quantitative analysis is already done. It’s just a question of when will this unravel and how will it unravel, which I think is the key when we’re thinking about the chronology of events and the likelihood of events going forward.

Something that I think is really important to pay attention to, in the last 10 years debts around the world – this is total credit market debts, this is on balance sheets, sovereign obligations, corporate debt, household debt – has grown from $80 trillion to just over $200 trillion.

We sit today at the world’s largest peacetime accumulation of debt in world history…

…You know how this ends right?

This ends through war…

…I don’t know who’s going to fight who, but I’m fairly certain in the next few years you will see wars erupt, and not just small ones…

You’re going to see more social unrest.

You saw HUGE riots in Greece, and you’re seeing HUGE riots in other parts of the world over food (and lack of food) and those are actually derivatives of the financial problems that we’re seeing. We’re exporting inflation to some other nations. Going forward it’s going to be a problem.

They’re not going to tell you [that a collapse is coming]. You’re going to have to see it for yourself. [During the Tequila crisis], the Mexican government affirmed they would not default, that they would not devalue, almost daily. The day after they said “we wont devalue,” they devalued by 60%.

The government’s never going to tell you that it’s going to happen.

Greece’s Yunker said recently, ‘When it becomes serious—you have to lie’. These guys are never going to tell you the truth, because they can’t tell you the truth. Their job is to promote confidence, not to tell you the truth.

Watch Kyle Bass: Full Speech at the AmerCatalyst 2012 Conference (Approx 1 hour)

The United States, Europe and the rest of the world have created more debt than has ever existed in the history of the world. Debt is nothing more than a representation (and expectation) of future earnings – future work. But, as many of us know, there has been so much money borrowed that we can’t possible every expect to pay it back. In fact, the only thing we can expect is that we will continue to take on even more debt.

At some point in the (near) future, the plug is going to be pulled and no one is going to lend anyone any more money. We saw this on a small scale in 2008 when credit markets around the world froze up. No one was lending money. There was so much risk that banks not only refused to lend money to individuals and businesses, but they refused to even lend each other money.

Central banks around the world, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve, calmed financial markets by pumping out trillions of dollars in emergency lending. This gave many a perception that things were returning to normal, but as Kyle Bass points out, we are in anything but a normal situation.

Debt has sky rocketed and we’re not going to pay it back – ever.

Like the mafia does when debts don’t get paid, our creditors are eventually going to resort to ‘breaking some legs.’

But we’re talking about debts of entire sovereign nations here, so the tools used to ‘take care of it’ won’t be crowbars or baseball bats, but rather, soldiers, tanks and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

War is coming – just as it has throughout history.

And the 99% of Americans who believe in a benevolent, all knowing, all caring government will be the last ones to get the memo.

Ignore the warnings at your peril.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: budget; debt; economy; shtf; war
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-83 next last

1 posted on 12/31/2012 9:07:47 PM PST by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: blam

bump

and most Americans don’t think anything is wrong except those evil Republicans holding back more freebies


2 posted on 12/31/2012 9:09:20 PM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

Bump

And Happy New Year Blam.


3 posted on 12/31/2012 9:09:37 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

I correspond with someone in India on a regular basis. He tells me people there expect their food prices to skyrocket in 2013.


4 posted on 12/31/2012 9:15:05 PM PST by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jet Jaguar
Happy New Years to you too Jet.

I like Kyle because he's Texan and also has 20 million nickels as a hedge against inflation...

10 Fascinating Facts About The Fabulous Life Of Hedge Funder Kyle Bass

5 posted on 12/31/2012 9:16:03 PM PST by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: blam

bump


6 posted on 12/31/2012 9:20:17 PM PST by ConservativeMan55
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: combat_boots

Food prices will go up here too.Another drought like last year-we will be in serious trouble.


7 posted on 12/31/2012 9:20:36 PM PST by Farmer Dean (stop worrying about what they want to do to you,start thinking about what you want to do to them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

Given we had close to 60 million voters for the R candidate, it would probably be easier to mobilize on a peaceful footing with real results. Not sure how the war proposal will inspire those unwilling to take action now with obviously fewer deleterious consequences.


8 posted on 12/31/2012 9:24:04 PM PST by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

The thing is Red China needs us to keep buying what they make, if they nuke us, they lose a huge market. Still, if they try to take us down, we must be reads to take them with us. We are in uncharted waters but I believe there is no mathematical way to pay off the debt, unless we print a 20 trillion dollar bill or something (that might not work either but when all else looks bad, well?), we might just as well default and reboot.


9 posted on 12/31/2012 9:25:52 PM PST by Nowhere Man (Whitey, I miss you so much. Take care, pretty girl. (4-15-2001 - 10-12-2012))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

The only part of the article I disagree with is that it was “peacetime” debt. We’ve been in a cold war with communism for many decades, while they put their pawns in the government, schools and the media; laying their legislative roadside bombs the whole while. Their “H-bomb” was getting Obama elected, and it may very well turn into a “hot” war.


10 posted on 12/31/2012 9:36:27 PM PST by SpaceBar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kartographer

Ping.


11 posted on 12/31/2012 9:42:29 PM PST by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

Thanks for the link!

I have a way to go, but have many nickels.


12 posted on 12/31/2012 9:51:56 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

I see a Civil War coming. We just can’t sustain this kind of spending! We’re already broke! Tax hikes without spending cuts in this new supposed “fiscal cliff” deal! Our rights being trampled, our guns being threatened. Not that I’m a big gun lover, but our Constitution protects our right to bear arms. Not for hunting, but as protection against an oppressive government. Obama has been the absolute best thing for gun sales which are through the roof as is ammunition sales.


13 posted on 12/31/2012 10:00:13 PM PST by Fran B (Love!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: blam

First post for 2013

...and from SHTF....

Appropriate.

Happy New Year blam.


14 posted on 12/31/2012 10:11:34 PM PST by libertarian27 (Profile page has links to the 2011 & 2012 FR Cookbooks- Enjoy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: combat_boots

The BBC did a story a few months ago noting that there is double digit food price inflation in the world (15 percent rate).

Food isn’t included in the inflation stats here in the US, but back in 2011 the story from Australia was that food price inflation was running at 15 percent.

I make up the grocery list every week and read the prices and packages when I shop.

Food prices are going up either by the same package costing more or a new smaller package costing the same or slightly less.

THE BIG CULPRIT IN THIS IS THE USE OF FOOD TO MAKE FUEL (EHTANOL).


15 posted on 12/31/2012 10:22:49 PM PST by Nextrush (PRESIDENT SARAH PALIN IS MY DREAM)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: blam; bruinbirdman; Carry_Okie; NormsRevenge; Ernest_at_the_Beach; dixiechick2000; AuntB; ...
Good find and I think he is prescient once again!!!

I'm lookin for a way off this planet and I'm not thinkin about suicide, either because that's a sin IMO!!!

If he's right... true peace is only gonna come from one place... you figure it out... Happy New Years and years and years, everybody, may you live in peace that passeth understanding!!!

16 posted on 12/31/2012 10:23:13 PM PST by SierraWasp (Conservative, constitutional & capitalistic thinking is the last refuge from pussy liberal thought!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nowhere Man

The debt can be paid back, but the debt owners would have settle on getting just the principle back and forego any, and all, interest.

Even then, it would take 500 years for all this debt to be paid back by everybody.


17 posted on 12/31/2012 10:33:09 PM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: blam

Yes. It is the inevitable fate of fascist states to have to invade their neighbors right after they have destroyed their own wealth.

They need their neighbor’s resources to keep the party going.

Canada has vast untapped natural resources.

Mexico has a vast underutilized labor force.

(just sayin’)...


18 posted on 12/31/2012 10:38:32 PM PST by null and void (Socialism: Equal parts dumb and evil, in a blender.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: null and void

The leaders do have other options like the “botox Evita” of Argentina Kirchner did a few years back.

She seized all the private pension funds and combined them with the country’s Social Security system.

All that 401k and pension money in this country is still untapped to feed the monster.........


19 posted on 12/31/2012 10:43:51 PM PST by Nextrush (PRESIDENT SARAH PALIN IS MY DREAM)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Nextrush

Yep. Inevitable doesn’t mean next. The USofA hasn’t yet had all its own wealth destroyed.


20 posted on 12/31/2012 10:49:25 PM PST by null and void (Socialism: Equal parts dumb and evil, in a blender.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Fran B
How would "signs in the heavens" change what you see coming?
A SIGN of the TIMES ?
21 posted on 12/31/2012 10:50:55 PM PST by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Fran B
How would "signs in the heavens" change what you see coming?
A SIGN of the TIMES ?
22 posted on 12/31/2012 10:50:59 PM PST by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: blam

Humans tend to get themselves into this predicament - hence the Biblical “Year of Jubilee” every half century. We’re gonna screw it up on a predictable basis, so just plan to hit reset.


23 posted on 12/31/2012 10:51:54 PM PST by ctdonath2 (End of debate. Your move.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nextrush
"All that 401k and pension money in this country is still untapped to feed the monster........."

I warned my son about that possibility when he was here Christmas.

24 posted on 12/31/2012 10:52:03 PM PST by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: SierraWasp; blam
Happy New Year....

And check out this thread...for some dialogue:

Obama, Senate Republicans reach agreement on ‘fiscal cliff’ (All taxes, no cuts)

25 posted on 12/31/2012 10:54:48 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Fran B

There’s a reckoning coming, no doubt about it. This country is occupied by two nations that absolutely loathe each other. The question is timing. What will be the spark? Will it be tomorrow, or will it be decades from now? One way of dealing with the uncertainty is to be absolutely sure who your friends are, and start digging now to identify potential future threats within your community. Which of your neighbors would be likely to support a regime drifting into tyranny? ID them and file it away in the back of your mind. Update every time you meet or learn about someone new, or when you have to correct initial data. It’s a slightly tinfoil-hat perspective to take, but having an advance notion of who to trust and who to frag could save your life in the chaos of civil conflict. Ugly thing to contemplate.


26 posted on 12/31/2012 10:55:28 PM PST by Trod Upon (Civilian disarmament is the precursor to democide.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: blam
I remember when a nickel would get a small bottle of Coca - Cola.
27 posted on 12/31/2012 10:59:34 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: blam

What Good Can a Handgun Do Against An Army?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/2312894/posts


28 posted on 12/31/2012 10:59:58 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I'll raise $2million for Sarah Palin's presidential run. What'll you do?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: blam

It could end through war, although that would be awful for a lot of people to suffer war over something not their doing.

A better solution would be to depose and remove the problem leaders. Instead of millions hurt and inconvenienced, hurt or killed, there are maybe 1-500 people who could be banished from the country and end the drama and problems. Perhaps more if the media is included.


29 posted on 12/31/2012 11:02:54 PM PST by Chickensoup (Leftist Totalitarian Fascism coming to a country like yours.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Gasoline is still 20¢ a gallon, if you use silver dimes.


30 posted on 12/31/2012 11:06:04 PM PST by null and void (Socialism: Equal parts dumb and evil, in a blender.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: blam

“But were talking about debts of entire sovereign nations here, so the tools used to ..take care of it “....

Extortion-Care,

which is the reason for the panic deal to push it through, and the imposter Roberts to gavel the final vote.

and a “tax” was decreed....

The number one debtor is going to attempt to secure it’s downgraded debt, on the shackled backs of decent U.S. citizens beginning in 2014.

They were actually counting on the “cliff” to coincide with 2014, to begin leveraging the average citizen, but it shows how fast (rate) the debt is accumulating.

Watch for coming Arbeitsziehungslager


31 posted on 12/31/2012 11:06:35 PM PST by Varsity Flight (Extortion-Care is the Government Work-Camp: Arbeitsziehungslager)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
"I remember when a nickel would get a small bottle of Coca - Cola. "

Me too.

Could it happen again?

32 posted on 12/31/2012 11:07:59 PM PST by blam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: blam

It will be the US vs. China. Time to pay the piper. You get into bed with the devil, and now the devil demands his piece, and you will pay dearly.


33 posted on 01/01/2013 12:21:45 AM PST by factoryrat (We are the producers, the creators. Grow it, mine it, build it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: factoryrat
Respectfully, I don't think so, as satisfying as it might be.

China is more apt to be the "Arsenal of Democracy" with us playing the part of Britain, and ? (Mexico, Canada, Nigeria, whoever) playing the Axis.

Except China will be supplying whoever is playing the Axis, too...

34 posted on 01/01/2013 12:30:17 AM PST by null and void (Socialism: Equal parts dumb and evil, in a blender.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Nowhere Man

I’m thinking about taking bets on when obama signs an EO eliminating all nukes, just like he promised Putin. Then we will be totally defenseless. Maybe Russia is going to hit us hard and that’s why he won’t allow any adoptions.


35 posted on 01/01/2013 12:31:56 AM PST by Terry Mross (I'm here for the entertainment.. And I know there are people I don't like who read my posts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: blam; Ernest_at_the_Beach
Could it happen again?

I don't think they can make a bottle small enough....and even if they did, ya couldn't dump a nickle bag of peanuts into it.

36 posted on 01/01/2013 12:40:34 AM PST by Roccus (POLITICIAN...............a four letter word spelled with ten letters.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: Chickensoup
It could end through war, although that would be awful for a lot of people to suffer war over something not their doing.

Those people traded their independence to the State for a mess of pottage. It is their doing. War is their heritage.

37 posted on 01/01/2013 2:12:53 AM PST by Misterioso ( "Those who grant sympathy to guilt, grant none to innocence." - Ayn Rand)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: blam
Debt has sky rocketed and we’re not going to pay it back – ever.

They might, when the dollar has been devalued by 99% or so.

38 posted on 01/01/2013 3:18:56 AM PST by Hugin ("Most times a man'll tell you his bad intentions, if you listen and let yourself hear."---Open Range)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: combat_boots

FWIW I’m in India, and I don’t see that much to indicate a major rise.


39 posted on 01/01/2013 4:15:20 AM PST by Little Pig (Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Gene Eric
Gene Eric. He is not advocating civil war. But rather war or wars between nations. It might pay you to watch the video, it is very informative.
40 posted on 01/01/2013 5:04:46 AM PST by Shane (When Injustice Becomes Law, RESISTANCE Becomes DUTY.----T.Jefferson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Chickensoup
A better solution would be to depose and remove the problem leaders. Instead of millions hurt and inconvenienced, hurt or killed, there are maybe 1-500 people who could be banished from the country and end the drama and problems. Perhaps more if the media is included.

That might - might - prevent the accumulation of additional debt. Keep the situation from getting even worse.

It would do absolutely nothing to reduce the present debt.

The problem is that each and every debt is also counted as somebody else's asset.

Writing off the debts would mean pensions, and 401ks, and every other investment in the world would suddenly crash.

In the long run, that might be a good thing. In the short run it would be catastrophic for the economy.

What WILL NOT happen is for us to continue into the indefinite future as we have for the last few decades.

When something is truly unsustainable, it won't be sustained.

41 posted on 01/01/2013 5:33:41 AM PST by Sherman Logan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

Paint it black, go for broke.


42 posted on 01/01/2013 5:37:21 AM PST by pingman (Paint it black, go for broke.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: blam

This could all be avoided so easily. So fast could things go right, if only the productive class quit paying taxes. They hold the purse strings. No government operates without steady revenue; that is the “consent” of the governed.

Quit enabling. If you really think disaster is on the way, war and famine and the rest — surely you can choose the relatively minor risk and inconvenience of ceasing to pay taxes. Legally if you wish, illegally if you dare.

Maybe then you won’t have to stockpile chow and guns — although it sure is exciting, isn’t it?


43 posted on 01/01/2013 5:38:22 AM PST by HomeAtLast ( If you care to reply, PM or risk non-detection amid ME ping list entries)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nowhere Man

“The thing is Red China needs us to keep buying what they make, if they nuke us, they lose a huge market. “

Is China neccessarily wedded to markets that are, or might China come up with a grand plan of markets to be? Junk the order of today, suffer some privations along the way, in order to have full power and authority in a new world setup. People are crazy and the old bipolar world kept many ambitions in check. The fall of the USSR is “old” news but the pace of History is slower and finer than the human attention span.


44 posted on 01/01/2013 6:02:57 AM PST by TalBlack (Evil doesn't have a day job.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: null and void
Canada has vast untapped natural resources.

Mexico has a vast underutilized labor force.

You are correct. Of course the US also has large untapped petroleum resources. At 20+ per cent real unemployment the US also has a vastly underutilized labor force, some of whom even speak a form of English.

45 posted on 01/01/2013 6:05:53 AM PST by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: blam

I would urge everyone to view the Bass speech. He might be the smartest man in America.


46 posted on 01/01/2013 6:07:18 AM PST by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Trod Upon
It’s a slightly tinfoil-hat perspective to take, but having an advance notion of who to trust and who to frag could save your life in the chaos of civil conflict. Ugly thing to contemplate.

Reality can be ugly sometimes, but it still needs to be dealt with.

47 posted on 01/01/2013 6:07:24 AM PST by EricT. (The GOP's sole purpose is to serve as an ineffective alternative to the Democrat Party.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: blam
I've been thinking that one of the consequences of all this debt will be war(s), but then again, wars are expensive.

How will already broke governments finance them without being able to borrow?

48 posted on 01/01/2013 6:25:19 AM PST by Hardastarboard (Bringing children to America without immigration documents is child abuse. Let's end it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Chickensoup
It could end through war, although that would be awful for a lot of people to suffer war over something not their doing.

Their votes made this all happen.

49 posted on 01/01/2013 6:26:05 AM PST by EricT. (The GOP's sole purpose is to serve as an ineffective alternative to the Democrat Party.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: blam

There supposedly is a plan being worked on that would propose doing just this. it’s “1035 something or other..” I can’t remember the specific name, but the number 1035 is in the name.


50 posted on 01/01/2013 6:31:11 AM PST by MachIV
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-83 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson