I would suggest this....if we arrive on 2 January, with the fiscal cliff going into full operation, and yet really noticeable to the common American....then the story rapidly dwindles. No one will care.
So I’m predicting this. On 2 January....almost nothing with the fiscal cliff is noticed. By the end of January....other than some freezes on hiring, and some conferences cancelled for the year....nothing is noted.
By March, around 10k government employees who are at or near retirement will be offered a bonus to leave now (max at $25k, and it’s taxed anyway). Nothing much is really noticed.
By July, there are fewer TSA folks and you start to require another thirty minutes at the airport. Your application for a new passport takes an extra ten days. But still, most folks don’t notice anything.
By December of 2013, the fiscal cliff thing is considered a joke by half the public. But as we get into 2014....more intense cuts start to occur...strangely enough in an election year. Blame now resurfaces toward the Republicans. We made almost a full year without complaint, and now seem to notice various little issues each week.
“But still, most folks don’t notice anything.”
Typically governments make cuts in the goods and services most visible to taxpayers. In state government instead of taking out a level of bloated high paid bureaucracy in the education or highway departments in the state capital, they reduce the number of highway patrolmen or close several state parks. Georgia even recently announced it was closing the state archives. The closure was reversed after the pesky taxpayers protested vehemently.
Obama and his administration no doubt already have cuts planned for maximum effect and public relations value with the mainstream press. There will be no $150,000 directors of Muslim outreach positions eliminated. Instead TSA officers will be cut in high traffic airports and the news media will be on site day one to show the long lines at LAX, LaGuardia, Newark, Atlanta. National parks will be closed or services the public frequently uses such as campgrounds will be closed at parks that stay open while the number of park rangers giving programs on global warming will be increased. No doubt they will reduce the number of air traffic controllers and the press will be primed to report every near miss. We’ll see stories on the news with air traffic controllers complaining about not having enough sleep. Another tactic might be to lay off 10,000 border patrol agents or hundreds of FBI agents. Administrators who interface directly with the people at the social security offices around the country will be cut, resulting in longer processing times and long waits to be seen while the multiple layers of highly paid bureaucrats in regional offices and Waashington will be retained. The strategy will be to create citizen anger at the mean Republicans whose unwillingness to be bipartisan caused the pain.
Now to reality both sides understand. Over the past 25 years American corporations and American business have gone through waves of downsizing in middle management. Desktop computing has resulted in signifiant productivity gains, the nature of white collar office work has changed, and corporations have learned to do with fewer layers of bureaucracy. Plus people in private industry work longer hours than government workers who are out the door at 5:00 pm. Go to any corporate headquarters or regional office. The parking lot is half full at 7:30 in the morning and 6:30 at night. It common for new CEO’s to begin their new assignments by early on ordering a 10% cut of the workforce, knowing it will reduce cost and increase productivity by giving managers the opportunity to cut out the least productive workers.
Contrast with government which has become more bloated over the past 25 years. Layers of bureaucrats and dozens of regional offices have been added. Any skillful private sector CEO or COO could go into a government agency and after a few weeks of study cut 20% of the head count, reorganize the workflow and actually increase productivity. In fact the experience in the private sector is usually an increase in productivity after a major layoff. People who survive the layoff become extremely motivated to perform, fearing a future layoff. Plus the elimination of the dead wood standing around talking all day actually allows those remaining to work faster.
No doubt there are many regional agency offices, created only to bring the bacon home to some powerful committee chair’s district, could be eliminated without changing services. The post office is bleeding red ink due to technology changes and private sector competition yet there are at least 5 post office branches within 10 miles of my house and a dozen or more contract locations in hardware stores and card shops. Add to that private sector UPS stores and Fed/Ex Kinkos locations. If the post office had truly been privatized it would have eliminated Saturday delivery, shut down thousands of tiny post office, contracted out office services to private mail offices and eliminated at the door service in suburban neighborhoods.
I absolutely agree with you the fiscal cliff “cuts” can be performed in a way that won’t affect services to any taxpayer in any meaningful way. However, I have no doubt the agencies and the administration will deliberately implement the cuts in ways that will create havoc for the taxpayer and its allies in the press and entertainment industry will scream about the pain being inflicted on the poor as well as the many risks to public safety. The cuts will be made by politicians with an agenda, not professional managers carefully assessing how to increase productivity and maintain essential services.