Posted on 12/11/2012 1:52:14 PM PST by entropy12
India will be the fastest-growing market, with exports to the South Asian nation expanding at an annual rate of 12% between 2016 and 2020, and staying in the double digits beyond then. Vietnam is another strong future trading partner for the United States, with double-digit annualized trade growth forecast over the next five to 15 years. Other promising new markets in the future include Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland.
India has many advantages.
Rule of law is British based.
Limited sectarianism.
Not communist.
People are focused on getting ahead.
Youth.
The health issues they have are going to improve, not decline.
Education can be quite good, and can surely improve.
Upward mobility is possible.
I don’t hear that the Indian government wants to punish success like socialists everywhere else.
So, I’m optimistic about India. It’s not all roses, but I like it’s prospects much more that China or the U.S.
India is still handicapped by a protectionist outlook for its businesses and industries. To open a business takes years of soliciting permits and approvals.
It will never be much more than a third rate Asia power unless it allows competition and does away with the corruption in nearly every level of government.
True. But I look at whether they are likely to tear down barriers or erect more.
I suspect they are more likely to tear down barriers. Compare that to the Chinese, who, while they’ve had a great run, cannot continue down their current path because their barriers are high, getting higher, and their nationalism and lack of law is going to hurt.
So, I think about likely trajectories. I see more reason for hope of improvement in India than most places on the planet. Everyone else seems to be going to heck in a hand-cart as fast as possible.
That’s backed by the full faith and credit of Uncle Milties unvarnished and unprofessional opinion.
The protectionist policy is not universal industry wide. When it comes to technology, IT,Biotech and backend outsourcing there is actually minimum to zero government interference or regulation. Even retail is being degrelated. Much of the other traditional industry still heavily regulated but there is increasing pressure on the government to liberalize those as well.
China's internal barriers are almost non-existent. Any Chinese citizen can start an instant pop-up business tomorrow with almost no paperwork. The government only gets interested when the company gets big enough to owe a lot of tax. An expat I spoke to in Shenzhen told me the Chinese economy has become unbelievably free over the last decade - that by comparison Hong Kong, routinely ranked as the most business-friendly country in the world, requires massive amounts of red tape to do anything.
China's barriers are erected against foreign companies and nationals who are trying to do business there - and those barriers are indeed unnecessarily steep and protectionist. But despite their problems with law and corruption, they still have a big edge over India right now due to their laissez-faire internal policies - policies India is unlikely to emulate for a generation.
Fair enough. My interaction with the Chinese is are as an exporter and intellectual property rights holder. The Chinese are rapists.
I know dozens of Indians who have started hi-tech companies from their “garage” so to speak, with no interference from the big bad government. But the older, large scale industries such as Auto, aircraft, locomotives, steel etc manufacturing is another matter. But no individual Chinese can start that either. Where China has succeeded is in buying foreign manufacturing technology on the cheap. I actually worked for a US company manufacturing large machinery, Chinese gov’t sent 50 engineers and bought our entire technology developed over 60 years. It was a privately owned company and the owners needed the capital during lean times. We gave them all our blue prints, our engineering standards and processes, computer programs...anything they wanted.
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