Achuthan Vigorously Defends His Recession Call, Says We'll Know If He's Wrong Within One Month

TBI ^ | 11-29-2012 | Sam Ro

[blam]

Lakshman Achuthan Vigorously Defends His Recession Call, Says We'll Know If He's Wrong Within One Month

Sam Ro
Nov. 29, 2012, 6:30 AM

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan is on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene, vigorously defending his recession call, which many have called dead wrong.

In case you're catching up, back in September 2011 Achuthan predicted the U.S. would go into recession. Advisor Perspectives' Doug Short has a great summary of all of Achuthan's calls and appearances since then.

Achuthan essentially lays out two parts to his defense this morning.

First, a recession is not measured as two consecutive quarters of GDP. Most actually agree with Achuthan here. Indeed, the official recession call, which is made by the NBER, is based on four big economic indicators: production, employment, income, and sales.

Based on his interpretation of these indicators, Achuthan believes that the U.S. went into recession in the middle of 2012.

Second, he says that you will not be able to tell if he's wrong until the end of this year. This is because a recession only becomes clear in the rearview mirror.

He cautioned Keene about rushing to judgement. But Achuthan effectively gave himself a one month deadline.

[blam]

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[pgkdan]

Based on his interpretation of these indicators, Achuthan believes that the U.S. went into recession in the middle of 2012.

I sell industrial supplies...metal and plastic shapes and parts and I can tell you with 100% certainty that the economy went into a tailspin around March and only got worse as the year continued. There would not even be a discussion of this fact if the media hadn't allowed itself to become the propaganda arm of the democrat party. I don't expect things to get a whole lot better anytime soon. In fact I'm anticipating things will get a whole lot worse.

[WILLIALAL]

Goldman Sachs, yeah that,s a trust worthy source. The stock market has been divorced from economic reality for the last 4 years. Its on a Fed sugar high.

[blam]

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"My conclusion should not come as a surprise, really. This is especially true if you’re a reader of my newsletter Capital & Crisis. In those pages we have come to focus on U.S. opportunities – indeed, most of the global plays have been sold off. Instead, we find our focus is on American real estate, American banks and American manufacturers."

[Fee]

This guy is like Meredith Whitman and Gerald Celente. They predict the end but it nevers happen, but do not discount them because of it. These analysts catch the rot in our financial infrastructure, but cannot predict the powers of central banks, gov and large corporations from coming up with schemes one never dreamed of to prop up the system. Eventually our system will fail or a Black Swan incident causes a collapse of the rotten system. Good news is it allows those who are aware to prepare family and self so when the collapse comes, one can survive.