Skip to comments.The Political Landscape After 2012
Posted on 11/17/2012 5:50:18 PM PST by neverdem
Like death, taxes, and the sun rising in the east, there is nothing more certain after a presidential election than a swift and usually overwrought round of analysis and advice for the losers. So it is this year for Republicans. If you Google “Republicans Whigs,” and confine your search to the past week, you will find multiple pages dedicated to the proposition that demographic trends are waiting to overwhelm the Republican Party, which is now a regional rump party awaiting extinction.
I’ve written some 75,000 words on the broad topic of demographic trends and realignments, and this election hasn’t done much to alter my thinking. There will be plenty more to say on this after the final votes are counted, exit polls are further refined, and other data sources, such as the CPS, are made available. For now, I think it is useful to take a look at the overall standing of the parties, and not just in the presidential race. Just looking at the numbers the Republican Party, overall, is actually in pretty good shape. Of course, that doesn’t mean it isn’t set for a major decline; this could be a high point. But it does mean the Party would be starting its decline from a pretty high peak.
The following two charts show the percentage of House and Senate seats held by Republicans since World War II:
As you can see, Republicans are still almost at a postwar high in the House of Representatives, with only 1946 and 2010 resulting in a larger share of the chamber going Republican. This is somewhat due to redistricting (more on that in a subsequent article). But even if you assume that redistricting saved the party 20 seats -- a very generous assumption...
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Obama used his Executive Pen to create 12,000,000 Hispanic voters this past summer, which should not go without mention in what would have otherwise been a different outcome in numerous races (about 13 in the Congress and Senate).
The problem for those in the GOP that the MSM calls the Religious Right is that many in the Religious Left (Catholic & Black) put those very values into question to the nonbelievers and within the religious community.
The real challenge to attend first for the GOP is use every one of the 30 governors to enact Voter ID laws and seek bipartisanship measures with Democrat Governors/Independents to also enact Voter ID laws.
Republicans did great in the states but crappy at the national level. They do good in midterms but bad in POTUS elections.
Just a few comments:
First, the econometric models argued for Obama to lose by 2 points. He won by 2 points. This was outside the margin of error.
Second, race and gender trumped the economy for many voters. My guess is that the Democrats will have to have a minority on the ticket in 2016 to replicate this year’s winning formula. But, who would that be?
Third, we had a problem with white ethnics when they were arriving here in big numbers. But, we started to get their votes as they rose up the economic ladder. I think this pattern will exhibit itself with Asians and Hispanics. Blacks, on the other hand, are very race conscious. We just have to keep plugging away at the identity thing.
Fourth, I can think of a dynamic candidate on our side, who was supposed to be our VP candidate this year. Photogenic. Great Speaker. A Horatio Alger story. A gorgeous wife. From a must-win Purple state. And, a Tea Party favorite. He could be the next Ronald Reagan.