Skip to comments.Andrew Kohut: Misreading Election 2012
Posted on 11/15/2012 3:22:45 PM PST by lbryce
Postelection talk of "lessons learned" is often exaggerated and misleading, and so it is in 2012.
A week after President Obama won re-election, two themes are dominant. First, that Mr. Obama kept his job because key elements of his basenotably young people, African-Americans, Latinos and Asian-Americansturned out for him. Second, that the growing size of these voting blocs represents a decisive challenge for the Republican Party.
Both points are true, but most observers are overstating the gravity of the GOP's problem. In particular, they are paying too little attention to how weak a candidate Mitt Romney was, and how much that hurt Republican prospects.
Here is what the exit poll found. Mr. Romney's personal image took a hard hit during the primary campaign and remained weak on election day. Just 47% of exit-poll respondents viewed him favorably, compared with 53% for Mr. Obama. Throughout the campaign, Mr. Romney's favorable ratings were among the lowest recorded for a presidential candidate in the modern era. A persistent problem was doubt about his empathy with the average voter. By 53% to 43%, exit-poll respondents said that Mr. Obama was more in touch than Mr. Romney with people like themselves.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
1.First,that Mr. Obama kept his job because key elements of his base turned out for him.
2.Second, that the growing size of these voting blocs represents a decisive challenge for the Republican Party
. 3. The weakness of Romney as a candidate,the damage he had done as candidate hurt Republican prospects.
4 Mr. Romney's favorable ratings were among the lowest recorded for a presidential candidate in the modern era. A persistent problem was doubt about his empathy with the average voter. By 53% to 43%, exit-poll respondents said that Mr. Obama was more in touch than Mr. Romney with people like themselves.
5. Throughout the campaign, Mr. Romney's favorable ratings were among the lowest recorded for a presidential candidate in the modern era. A persistent problem was doubt about his empathy with the average voter. By 53% to 43%, exit-poll respondents said that Mr. Obama was more in touch than Mr. Romney with people like themselves.
6.Surprisingly, Mr. Romney proved unable to exploit Mr. Obama's biggest weakness: the economy. Seventy-six percent of exit-poll respondents rated the national economy "poor" or only "fair," and just 25% said their finances were better off than they were four years ago. Yet voters expressed roughly equal confidence in Mr. Obama's ability to handle the economy (48%) as in Mr. Romney's (49%).
6.Surprisingly, Mr. Romney proved unable to exploit Mr. Obama's biggest weakness: the economy.
There are some bright spots for the Republican party but essentially Obama's ability to win despite probably having the worst records an incumbent ever had to defend had all and everything to do with Romney not being the right man. His perceptions a rich businessman, the secret recording revealed, his immoral pro-choice stance on abortion certainly did not endear him to the conservative element to the Republican party.
The one thing that stands out as having been omitted as a cause for Romney's loss was his religion affiliation with the Mormon church. I can't believe it was not a factor, and wholeheartedly believe that many people did not vote for Romney solely on this issue but would admit to it as bieng a factor in the election.
That was his first opportunity in a major venue to demonstrate that he had some moral fiber and he failed.
Being Governor of Massachusetts is really not the sort of thing to demonstrate you're an upright guy, so people have doubts about everybody who's ever held office there ~ and this was his chance to overcome the Massachusetts reputation dogging him.
He let his Republican agents in the Old Dominion engage in some skullduggery on his behalf and when he didn't speak out against the results the Conservative factions there tuned him out.
The watch word among Republicans here, and any campaign workers was simple "Next time you guys gotta' run a real Republican" and they'd shake their heads in agreement.
Romney is a draft-dodging, gun banning, Obamacare creating, gay marriage law signing, liberal judge appointing CULT LEADER !
No one is perfect, but Romney was perfectly wrong for a GOP candidate. I will NOT vote for someone who governed TO THE LEFT OF BILL CLINTON, and has a lifetime of liar training in a CULT.
This fight was lost in the primary....I stand blameless before God.
... but... but... "unskewedpolls.com!" "Dick Morris!" "Karl Rove's Marvelous, Magical White Board!" "INDEPENDENTS -- !!!" ;)
Time will tell.
Expecting voters to know whats going on and their reliance on MSM is just part of why our great loss. While there are examples of fraud which may close up the gap, the gap is too big to blame the loss on fraud ...Expecting GOP Es to address media bias or Romney to call Obama a congenital liar or even point out that the fact and figures released by the white house were allways questionable is another . But the fault lies really in the messaging the Republican campaign gave.choking on political correctness parameters devised by the socialist party known as Democrat ..
Romney ran a Johnny One Note Campaign. Used a poison dart blow gun when he should have used a cannon loaded with grape shot because he had pleanty of stuff he could fill that cannon barrel with..
They failed to hammer away on what will happen when Obama gets returned; The Obama past due 2013/14 Tax Increases. The impact of Obamas choking energy policies, restricted drilling, use of coal ,ban on fracking, and that related price..(a socialist construct never branded as such) was a bread and butter issue which reached into every demographics pocketbook...The impact of Supreme Court Appointments.. 18,000 new IRS agents and on and on. Including rampant corruption . Some were very briefly touched most werent and Benghazi was left to languish. Then there is Obamas personal extravagance and behavior refusing to visit Nashville after its disaster showing up at New Orleans after Mitt visited it.
Instead we got a sales pitch on executive ability but not the reason why one should toss the old model and buy his. That print and tv pitch , 20 million new jobs, was given a discrarded dose of skepticism .
In addition Rove who I understand was handling the Charter PAC senate campaign played games. His material never warned voters that IF OBAMA GETS RE-ELECTED AND SENATE CONTROL REMAINED . .. OBAMACARE AND ALL THE TAX INCREASES THAT GO WITH IT WILL NEVER GET REPEALED Let alone tie into or cover the formentioned grape shot which would have perhaps changed that body. I don’t recall any of that material directed toward that fact.
Finally they didnt believe the polls which turned out were dead on. Even going as far as setting up focus groups which could have looked into whats going on . Even to the point of going out to local eateries and bars and eavesdrop into conversations and pick up on topics being discussed.(chat rooms twitter too contrived)
Our local small population (-8000) rural blue county GOP had at the outset good and growing attendence at their meetings 50 plus. At the meeting the Thursday before the election only about a dozen people showed up and I knew we were in trouble .
Nuts...This loss is inexcuseable, while I trully don’t believe Mitt Romney would never continence losing, I’m begining to wonder if many GOPE’s didn’t want to see O care go ..
We had to go but her comment was Hispanics do not vote for Democrats because of immigration....
Yeah, we know all of that is true because Romney was turning out crowds of 30,000 people and Obama couldn’t fill half a stadium when he was offering a free concert with Bruce Springsteen as part of the deal. I don’t believe the young turned out any more than I believe Kennedy took Chicago by the official numbers.
Bwa hahahaha. I seriously doubt that, especially if you stood down and let the Kenyan win. That's two strikes right there.
I didn’t leave the party. The party left me. Here I stand, principles intact, not feeling like a $2 whore.
You want to know why Romney lost and any other Republican would have lost as well?
Here it is in the FoxNews Exit Poll:
Do you work full time for pay? Yes 60%, No 40%.
Romney won the suburban and rural vote by good margins. He got slammed in urban environments where government is Daddy. There is no change in the forseeable future if democrats continue to turnout so many takers in urban America.
ANYONE should have been able to beat Nobama. And ALL republicans should have voted instead of staying home. I’m sick of the sad sack, cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face wienies who hated Romney so much that they decided to stay home. America was more important than any one person. We had a chance to revive our nation with Romney. Now we have NO CHANCE of returning it to its previous glory. HOWEVER, God is in control. He has given us Nobama (first and second term) for a reason. The outcome may be the end of America, but it is all in HIS hands. God bless us all—if he can forgive us of our national sins.
I spent a while looking at the exit poll data today. Pretty interesting.
Romney wins the popular vote if you narrow it down to:
-White men of any age
-White women or married women
-People over 40
-People who self-identify as Republican or Independent
-Household incomes over $50k (I find this amusing because Romney only hits 42% with people who have post-graduate degrees. No wonder people are mad about their loans)
-Suburbs and rural
-People who have a full-time job (ties)
Under no circumstances will I ever stand before my Maker and explain that because he was the lesser of two evils, I supported a baby-killing cultist who directly or through his organization proclaimed that:
There are more gods than the one God revealed in the Bible.
God is a glorified, perfected human being with a body of flesh and bone.
God is polygamously married to dozens (at least) of wives, and spends eternity as a type of Celestial Stud engaged in endless copulation producing countless spirit babies.
Jesus is the spirit brother of Lucifer.
Jesus is the literal Son of God who was conceived through direct sexual intercourse between the Virgin Mary and God the Father -- or in other words, that God committed incest with his daughter Mary.
A person is saved into heaven by virtue of their good works.
A person must accept Joseph Smith in order to receive salvation.
A person must pass in judgment before Joseph Smith before being admitted into Heaven.
A person must believe in Prophet Lorenzo Snow's famous couplet: As man now is, God once was ... As God now is, Man may become.
Non-whites are loathsome and cursed because of something they did or did not do in the dawn of pre-existence whereas people of European descent in general, and Mormons in particular, are white and delightsome.
A person must aspire to be sealed in a Masonic-based temple ceremony to his/her spouse for time and all eternity so that they may someday become gods and goddesses ruling over our own planet.
Wives will only be resurrected if their husbands call forth their Temple Name from beyond the veil.
Christianity ceased to exist after the death of the twelve apostles, to the point where all Christian Churches (especially the Baptists, Catholics, Methodists and Presbyterians) are an abomination to the Lord.
The Mormon Church is Christian.
Furthermore, I can't believe that any true Christian anywhere would ever contemplate supporting any candidate for any public office that espouses such horrible heretical and blasphemous doctrines -- be they Muslim, Mormon, or whatever.
In my case, if asked to uphold one cultist or the other, I will always support neither, no matter what the cost or penalty.
.....and before anybody tells me that my vote lost the election for romney, I admit, I'm responsible for that utter failure of a man losing, my non vote for romney here in Illinois cost him the election.
I agree. Plus its hard to win when fighting on two fronts—the Democrat party and the media. They covered for their chosen one just as they did in ‘08 when they created the Obama myth. And the Dems will continue to win. Conservatives can’t win against the government-media lib complex. Once it all falls apart, maybe something good will emerge when the smoke clears.
Every single person who voted for Obama, whether it was by voting for Mickey Mouse or George Washington, or actually voting for Dear Leader himself, Obamamugabe, is directly responsible for the hell that will soon descend upon us...
I agree that Mormonism is a blasphemous cult, but I couldn’t care less what someone’s religious beliefs are...after all, the most evil woman in American politics right now, Nancy Pelosi, is a Catholic, and they are hardly a cult.
And yeah...you DID elect Obama through your non-vote for Romney, and as our guns are seized, “hate speech” laws censoring criticism of Muslims and homosexuals are enacted, and as anti-discrimination laws are set up forcing us to hire guys in dresses and letting men use girl’s restrooms, then, yeah...the blame WILL fall upon you and everyone who voted as you did.
I already admitted I cost Romney the election, especially here in Illinois, where my vote would have put him right over the top, then he would have gotten all of Illinois' electoral votes.