Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The GOP Has Problems With White Voters, Too
The New Republic ^ | November 12, 2012 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 11/13/2012 2:21:04 PM PST by neverdem

With the national exit poll showing Obama winning with just 39 percent of white voters, a smaller share than any Democrat since Mondale, the emerging conventional wisdom holds that a demographic tidal wave of minority turnout cost Romney the presidency. As a result, Republicans are focusing on their poor performance with the burgeoning Latino population; even Sean Hannity says he's "evolved" on immigration reform. But while the national exit poll data give the impression that Romney got the job done with white voters, Romney's stellar national performance obscures stark regional differences that suggest the GOP has its own problem with white voters. 

Romney’s strong national showing among white voters was almost exclusively driven by historic support from Southern and Appalachian white voters. In many counties, Obama’s performance was the worst by any Democrat since McGovern or, in some places, ever. Even a quick glance at overwhelmingly white, Southern, or Appalachian counties with a history of offering even limited support to Democratic candidates shows Obama performing anywhere from 15 to 30 points worse than Kerry did eight years ago. Obama even lost more than 50 points compared to Kerry’s performance in several “coal country” counties in southern West Virginia and eastern Kentucky.

Outside the South, Romney’s performance among white voters was anything but historic. He ran behind Bush’s tallies in most of the northern half of the United States. While some believed that Obama’s weakness among white voters would translate into opportunities for Romney in overwhelmingly white states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, Obama ultimately won these three states by 5.6 to 6.9 points, even though Bush never lost any by more than 1.3 points. More broadly, you can quickly consider changes in Democratic support among white voters between '04 and '12 in the nine states where whites represent at least 85 percent of the population. These states aren't exactly representative of white voters elsewhere, but the big picture is about right: outside of the South, Romney ran behind Bush among white voters, but he made up for it in Appalachia and the rest of the South. 

Obama also preserved many of his gains in affluent and well-educated suburban counties where many believed that Romney would perform well. Republicans won Jefferson, CO, Chester, PA, Loudon, VA, Wake, NC, and Somerset, NJ, in every presidential election from 1968 through 2004, but Obama carried all of them with the exception of Chester County, where Obama’s performance was still better than any other Democrat since Johnson. Obama also performed near ’08 levels in moderate Democratic-leaning suburbs like Fairfax, Polk, Franklin, Hennepin, or Oakland Counties. 

It's important to remember that the nation's best-educated counties are increasingly among its most diverse (whites were just 72 percent of the population in 37 counties without a major university where 40 percent or more of adults hold a Bachelor's degree), but it's clear from the results in relatively white counties (80 percent or more) like Jefferson and Larimier, CO, or Delaware, OH, that Obama's big gains over Kerry's performance in well-educated areas aren't just a product of demographic changes.

Making matters worse for Republicans, Democratic Senate candidates ran as well as or ahead of the president in white areas in just about every competitive state, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. The performance of these candidates suggests that the GOP's issues extend beyond specific problems with Romney or the unique appeal of the president. This particular writer can't judge whether Republicans were hurt more by abortion, tax policy, or something else, but it's clear that Romney's issue among rural, white northerners wasn't just Bain Capital, and his problem in affluent suburbs wasn't just his pledge to end funding to Planned Parenthood.

If Romney's historic performance among white voters manifested evenly across the electoral map, then Republicans could justifiably consider their “demographic challenge” as their primary obstacle to victory in 2016. But the Republicans shouldn't let their national standing among white voters obscure their real challenges with white voters outside of the South. It’s not useful for Republican strategists to take solace in Obama's 39 percent showing among white voters if Obama still managed to do much better than Kerry or Gore in states like Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Minnesota. In the Electoral College system, turning "lean Republican" states like Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Missouri into "solid Republican" states just doesn't matter.



TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012election; election2012

1 posted on 11/13/2012 2:21:11 PM PST by neverdem
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: neverdem

Here was the problem with (Republican) voting:

“Oh, I’m sorry, this machine is broken, could you put your vote in this box and we’ll scan it later....”

7PM (DUMPS BOX)


2 posted on 11/13/2012 2:27:20 PM PST by struggle (http://killthegovernment.wordpress.com/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

More encouraging news.


3 posted on 11/13/2012 2:27:20 PM PST by Arthurio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: paul544; Vision

Forgive me for the source, but if the numbers are correct, the problem is working class whites outside the south.


4 posted on 11/13/2012 2:27:42 PM PST by neverdem ( Xin loi min oi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

Clue; The Government Opposition Party(GOP) is a LIE..
AND democracy is also a LIE... therefore all democrats..

NO democracy has ever yet been democratic.. and never will be..
Democracy is a metaphorical stage for Socialism...
Democracy was, is and always will be MOB Rule for mobsters..


Democracy is the road to socialism. -Karl Marx

Democracy is indispensable to socialism.
The goal of socialism is communism. -V.I. Lenin

The meaning of peace is the absence of opposition to socialism .-Karl Marx


5 posted on 11/13/2012 2:28:23 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem
Forgive me for the source, but if the numbers are correct, the problem is working class whites outside the south takers vs. makers.

Fixed it.

6 posted on 11/13/2012 2:29:44 PM PST by freedumb2003 (Here comes bama claus here comes bama claus left down bama claus lane!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

Santa Claus is colorblind.


7 posted on 11/13/2012 2:30:02 PM PST by rfp1234 (Arguing with a liberal is like playing chess with a pigeon.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem
but if the numbers are correct, the problem is working class whites outside the south.

Yup. Working class whites in the Rust Belt have been taking it on the chin with Outsourcing Outsourcing Outsourcing since the 70's. And to the extent that Obama's ads were able to position Romney as the kind of guy who was behind those sorts of deals, it appears to have really hurt him.


8 posted on 11/13/2012 2:33:53 PM PST by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

The reason why the Rats are obsessed with race is that they are obsessed with power. Targeting racial voter groups is just a means to an end. If the US was Iceland, the Rats would resuscitate the KKK.


9 posted on 11/13/2012 2:34:24 PM PST by rfp1234 (Arguing with a liberal is like playing chess with a pigeon.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

The GOP seems to have a problem with all different demographics - did they ever think maybe it is the message and messenger.


10 posted on 11/13/2012 2:34:42 PM PST by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem
The South is the real America and this map proves it:

Dixie is where initiative, enterprise, freedom and individual liberty triumphs over the union slavemasters. Is is any wonder that White Southerners (overwhelmingly Christian, by the way) embrace Constitutional Conservative principles and are pro-business?


11 posted on 11/13/2012 2:39:34 PM PST by re_nortex (DP...that's what I like about Texas.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem
Moderate is lukewarm. Neither hot or cold. What did Jesus say about lukewarm?

The liberals are clearly not lukewarm.

12 posted on 11/13/2012 2:39:39 PM PST by 5thGenTexan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

Yet another stake through the heart of the stupid twin ideas that Romney lost voters because he wasn’t socially conservative enough, or was a Mormon; if either was true, he wouldn’t have gained votes in the South.


13 posted on 11/13/2012 2:40:32 PM PST by Strategerist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye McFrog
Agreed. Romney didn't have a counter balance on the ticket that was against TARP. There was no GOP message on trade policies at all. Simply attacking China, ok, but the rust belt didn't believe Romney, even though Obama will never do anything.
14 posted on 11/13/2012 2:40:36 PM PST by Theoria (Romney is a Pyrrhic victory.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye McFrog; neverdem

Like Huckabee said, working-class whites didn’t feel like electing someone who looks like the guy who fired them. Presidential elections are decided on superficial things with enough swing voters that we can’t afford to nominate someone with the kind of baggage Romney brought from Bain Capital.

This article doesn’t get into turnout though. White turnout was down a couple percentage points I think, so the problem is bigger than this author even states. It’s not a minority problem per se, although votes from minorities would help of course.

The key problem was with incomes. Under $50,000, they voted for Obama bigtime, over $50,000, they voted for Romney by almost as wide a margin. The affluent liberals are not a big enough voting block to stop the affluent in general from going for Romney.

We didn’t learn anything new about voters in this election. Democrats have always been perceived as the party that helps the poor or working class. That’s how FDR got reelected during the Depression. Republicans are seen as the party that’s better on national security. The Iran hostage crisis is probably what got Reagan elected moreso than the bad economy. I think conservative media knew it, which is why they tried to make the Benghazi story a prominent issue in the campaign. Romney foolishly backed away.


15 posted on 11/13/2012 2:47:35 PM PST by JediJones (Newt Gingrich warned us that the "King of Bain" was unelectable. Did you listen?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Theoria
Agreed. Romney didn't have a counter balance on the ticket that was against TARP.

Steve Deace pointed out how if Romney was for TARP but against the auto bailout, it just made it sound all the more that he confirmed people's worst stereotypes of Republicans, that they're for lining the pockets of the rich but not for helping the working man. It's a problem when you run a candidate that has no consistent principles and just puts his finger in the wind over the course of a decade building up policy positions with no rhyme or reason other than that they were convenient at the time he stated his opinion.

16 posted on 11/13/2012 2:49:46 PM PST by JediJones (Newt Gingrich warned us that the "King of Bain" was unelectable. Did you listen?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

Non-southern working class whites are definitely a problem and I have no idea why so many of them, including a large number or possibly the majority of the younger white males, support the Dems. Possibly these are people who live in union areas, although unionized workers are a very small proportion of the workforce. Frankly, I think it’s because they believe it’s cool to support Obama.

Young white men watch exactly the same television that young black men do, and they see the same rap videos and “rap artists” and watch the same mindless celebrities; young working class whites have high numbers of “single mothers” and the males never seem to marry even if they live with the same woman for awhile and have children with her, so they have high illegitimacy rates. And they are largely unchurched, poorly educated, often unemployed and really don’t live much differently from Obama’s black fans.

The only correct thing Jesse Jackson ever said was “what goes around comes around.” Everybody (well, the liberals) thought it was okay to encourage the black marginal culture because the white liberals thought it was kinda cool and subversive, and now it has spread to all of our society.


17 posted on 11/13/2012 3:02:22 PM PST by livius
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: rfp1234
Targeting racial voter groups is just a means to an end.

Its a little hard to get a message out to someone who doesn't speak your language unless you tailor the message to fit the language they do speak.

Have we learned nothing from history? The old Ward Politics of the 1920s ran this way. You get a Jew to talk to the Jews. You get a Pole to talk to the Poles. You get an Irishman to talk to the Irish.

18 posted on 11/13/2012 3:03:10 PM PST by superloser
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

The Republicans lost because they continue to grovel before the Race Card

They ignored Obama’s Attorney General, Eric”my people” Holders, public statements that white Americans are NOT protected by federal hate crime laws against violent racist crime. LINK

This issue alone, if pushed and backed by well crafted political adds, would have defeated Obama in a landslide .If Romney would have gotten another 2 percent of the white vote he would have won the election.He would have easily gotten that and then some if he would have stood fast on exposing Obamas racist double standard on hate crimes.

Much more at this link:

http://blackracismandracehatred.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-reelection-of-president-obama.html


19 posted on 11/13/2012 3:07:38 PM PST by Uncle Lonny
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

The Republican Party has a problem attracting the votes of dopes.


20 posted on 11/13/2012 3:25:54 PM PST by driftless2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Strategerist

The South is a separate country of patriots, and should be Independent of the Government slave driving north.

I told a lady today I diden’t care about the victims of hurricane sandy because I felt they deserved it. I feel in hinesite that was perhaps a little harsh and certantly non-diplomatic.

But in my heart I know the North for historic reasons deserves much of what Sandy and the subsequent storm has brought upon them. They were not prepared they turned away help simply because that help didn’t happen to measure up to their “high & mighty* standards. They deserve to suffer for their choices. I don’t want one more nickle going to help those slave driving bastards.


21 posted on 11/13/2012 3:38:59 PM PST by Monorprise
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

Bottom line...the bigger government gets and the more things it touches, the more the Democrats can flex a muscle to compel votes. Look at the newly introduced contraception mandate, added by HHS in February of this year. They add it in, force religious institutions to give birth control to employees (against their beliefs) and then spend nine months crowing about a ‘war on women’. Completely fabricated, and all from a minor tweak to the unlimited regulatory control given to that department of the government. This is not new, but now that health care is controlled by government it will be an endless weapon wielded by the Democrats.

This crosses all colors, sexes, religions, etc. It is frightening...and it works.


22 posted on 11/13/2012 3:54:15 PM PST by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem
whites were just 72 percent of the population in 37 counties without a major university where 40 percent or more of adults hold a Bachelor's degree

That's the most ridiculous statistic I've seen in years. How deep do you have to dig to prove I mean support oh, heck your assumption to make yourself look like a total dope to come up with a number like that?

Asinine.

23 posted on 11/13/2012 4:17:33 PM PST by BfloGuy (Workers and consumers are, of course, identical.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Uncle Lonny
John Derbyshire touches on this. Here's a brief excerpt from a fairly long but worthwhile read. Written Nov 10, 2012.

____________________________________________________________

05 — The shape of things to come. What about the future, then? Does the Republican Party have a future?

As I have been saying, there is no unity among white Americans. The old splits of education, class, sex, religion, city-country, and of course North-South still divide whites, and that is the basis of most of our politics. The Republican Party is white, sure enough, but whites aren't Republican.

This will presumably be less and less the case as whites head for minority status. At some point the fact of impending minority status will sink in, and whites will begin to sink their differences and circle the wagons. At some point the Lee Kuan Yew principle will take over. I've quoted it before, and I'll quote it again, because it's very quotable in this context. Quote from Lee Kuan Yew, who was Prime Minister of Singapore for thirty years, and the power behind the curtain for a further twenty in that very successful city-state, quote:

'In multiracial societies, you don't vote in accordance with your economic interests and social interests, you vote in accordance with race and religion'

http://www.johnderbyshire.com/Opinions/RadioDerb/2012-11-10.html

24 posted on 11/13/2012 4:41:39 PM PST by Ken H
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

I have a problem with the Gutless Old Pretenders:

They are worthless cowards who will turn on us every time it counts.

(See tagline)


25 posted on 11/13/2012 4:53:09 PM PST by EricT. (The GOP's sole purpose is to serve as an ineffective alternative to the Democrat Party.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

Our side has to wrestle control away from the media, and get our side out earlier and often. The fact that people made decisions in this cycle on race, and women’s issues is purely absurd. There was literally nothing on the ballot. Millions of voters who are smart enough to know the economy is being suffocated by Washington DC voted for more of it. We have to get our message out around the media, or it will be death of us as a nation.


26 posted on 11/13/2012 5:35:51 PM PST by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
Lesbian Mothers’ Children - Is it time to retire the National Longitudinal Lesbian Family Study?

Lessons Learned - What can we learn from Election 2012? Some reflections

Obama's re-election drives gun sales

The Latino-Vote Obsession

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

27 posted on 11/13/2012 6:22:21 PM PST by neverdem ( Xin loi min oi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
Lesbian Mothers’ Children - Is it time to retire the National Longitudinal Lesbian Family Study?

Lessons Learned - What can we learn from Election 2012? Some reflections

Obama's re-election drives gun sales

The Latino-Vote Obsession

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

28 posted on 11/13/2012 6:22:48 PM PST by neverdem ( Xin loi min oi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
Lesbian Mothers’ Children - Is it time to retire the National Longitudinal Lesbian Family Study?

Lessons Learned - What can we learn from Election 2012? Some reflections

Obama's re-election drives gun sales

The Latino-Vote Obsession

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

29 posted on 11/13/2012 6:23:46 PM PST by neverdem ( Xin loi min oi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

I think the system is having problems again,....just posted an articl and got no feedback that the article had been posted......when it had actually posted it....


30 posted on 11/13/2012 6:28:49 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: ilgipper

We have to take back education! the hippies took it over in the 60’s and developed their 40 year plan....we are seeing it’s fruit!

The ‘elite’ intelligensia is ‘guiding’ the administration and the young masses have been brainwashed.


31 posted on 11/13/2012 6:35:14 PM PST by bitt (The buck rolls downhill.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: neverdem

Thanks for the ping!


32 posted on 11/13/2012 8:20:21 PM PST by Alamo-Girl
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: BfloGuy
I will speculate that most of those 37 counties include a state capitol or Washington D.C.

Wherever you find a concentration of well educated minorities, you will also find a concentration of government jobs.

And, yes, that is one Orca sized jumble of statistics packed into one sentence.

33 posted on 11/13/2012 10:10:03 PM PST by zeestephen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; neverdem
Ernest - neverdem,

Just click “Post” one time.

If your browser acts like it's still trying to transmit, sometimes for several minutes, the post has actually gone through, 100% of the time, in my experience.

If you're afraid of losing work, open a new window, and bring up Free Republic.

The post has always been there for me.

Then, just close out the “transmitting” window and do whatever you planned to do with the new window instead.

34 posted on 11/13/2012 10:24:46 PM PST by zeestephen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: neverdem
Forgive me for the source, but if the numbers are correct, the problem is working class whites outside the south.

I think the problem might be that Republican candidates are growing increasingly "moderate" (getting further to the left of LBJ).

That makes it tougher to pick up votes, and I know the last two elections, the POTUS candidate came from the bottom 1/3 of my list out of all the primary contenders. Now we are told if we just pick a more socialist candidate we are sure to win, but where is the victory in electing what we are allegedly voting against?

You just can't get the vote out that way, even with Duh-1.

The real suffering occurs down ticket, though, another 3500 R voters (before any recount) and Berg would have likely taken the Senate seat, so picking socialistic candidates instead of strong Conservatives hasn't worked, and has hurt elsewhere as well.

35 posted on 11/14/2012 12:00:01 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson