Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The Case of the Missing White Voters (7,000,000 of them!)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 11/08/12 | Sean Trende

Posted on 11/08/2012 7:32:38 AM PST by TonyInOhio

One of the more intriguing narratives for election 2012 was proposed by political scientist Brendan Nyhan fairly early on: that it was "Bizarro 2004."

~ SNIP ~

The Election Day returns actually continued the similarities. George W. Bush won by 2.4 percent of the popular vote, which is probably about what Obama’s victory margin will be once all the ballots are counted.

~ SNIP ~

But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.

~ SNIP ~

In other words, if our underlying assumption -- that there are 7 million votes outstanding -- is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes.

This is nothing to sneeze at, but in terms of the effect on the electorate, it is dwarfed by the decline in the number of whites. Again, if our assumption about the total number of votes cast is correct, almost 7 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008. This isn’t readily explainable by demographic shifts either; although whites are declining as a share of the voting-age population, their raw numbers are not.). In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home.

Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator.

(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bho2012; lost; mystery; romney2012; whitevote
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-148 next last
Fascinating, and opposite to the prevailing conventional wisdom about why Romney lost. It's clear now that running moderate candidates (even competent and decent candidates like Romney) means we will lose.

Romney bet that playing nice and running on conpetence would be enough, but bringing a knife to a gun fight leads to getting shot. He never respoded to Obama's attacks in kind, betting that playing nice would appeal to the mushy middle - he lost that bet.

This piece is long, but well worth the read if you want to understand the lessons of the election.

1 posted on 11/08/2012 7:32:45 AM PST by TonyInOhio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Without paper ballots you can never prove those votes existed or not


2 posted on 11/08/2012 7:36:58 AM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I read this earlier today and was going to post it.

The key factor was the Bain attacks in swing states. That kept blue collar types who were not at all keen on Obama home. They didn’t like Obama, but didn’t feel motivated to vote for Romney.

Down the road I’d really be curious to see what the change in turnout (2008-2012) was in blue collar areas that were targeted with those ads vs. areas that weren’t targeted.


3 posted on 11/08/2012 7:38:16 AM PST by Numbers Guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

It would not have made a difference in Mississippi... but out of 20 whites (random) that I have asked if they had voted... 8 said they were not registered... I asked why and a couple just said they hated politics but 6 of them said that they do not want to serve jury duty. Lazy pos parasites!

LLS


4 posted on 11/08/2012 7:38:16 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (I AM JOHN GALT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

There should be a public record of everyone who cast a vote—though of course not which way they voted.

I have a hard time imagining seven million votes being disappeared and it not being found out.

A few hundred thousand in key states, however—that I could see.

My best guess is a share of the evangelical base staying home and orchestrated voter fraud on the part of the Dems in combination would solve the mystery.


5 posted on 11/08/2012 7:40:29 AM PST by 9YearLurker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
Considering all of the "On the Ground" reports during the election .... a lot of these post mortem studies are becoming a little bit difficult to swallow.

Conservative knew very well what was at stake in this election so these after action results are sounding very implausible. I could understand a few apathetic and protest wonks staying home .... but 7 million??? ..... give me a break.

6 posted on 11/08/2012 7:40:48 AM PST by R_Kangel ( "A Nation of Sheep ..... Will Beget ..... a Nation Ruled by Wolves.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
"In other words, the reason this electorate looked so different from the 2008 electorate is almost entirely attributable to white voters staying home. "

This is exactly my thought, and unfortunately the opposite of what the Republican establishment seems inclined to do next time. Obama did terribly compared to previous presidents reelections. Has a president ever won reelection with fewer votes before? This was the Republican's election to lose, and somehow, against all odds, they managed to do that. And I don't think that a brown Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican Party's salvation.

7 posted on 11/08/2012 7:42:38 AM PST by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I’m going to guess it was a lot of Ron Paul voters. They didn’t like Obama. They didn’t like what happened at the convention and they said screw it and didn’t vote. Look at it like a hidden “Perot” vote that cost Bush against Clinton. There’s also a lot of people out there that think the system is broken and don’t think anyone can fix it. They’ve given up.


8 posted on 11/08/2012 7:45:27 AM PST by larryleo (We all need to get Newtered!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sooth2222

Anti-Mormons stayed home.


9 posted on 11/08/2012 7:47:22 AM PST by jennychase
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: GeronL
I suspect this election was stolen. A simple check would be to compare percentages of voter participation in states with controls in place against those states that have "flexible" voter standards.
10 posted on 11/08/2012 7:47:29 AM PST by Errant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Aren’t all bad things in America the fault of whitey/crackers/neocons?


11 posted on 11/08/2012 7:48:14 AM PST by subterfuge (BUILD MORE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS NOW!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Perhaps this is the bitter fruit of those who refused to vote for Romney because he was not conservative enough, not enough better on abortion than Obama, or because they hate/distrust Mormonism.

We are screwed now with some deeply destructive Supreme Court appointments looming (I’m guessing a couple of red diaper babies in their forties), and a string of UN treaties which will cede our advantages, technology and wealth to Socialist and Islamist competitors. Only the Presidency and Senate are needed to enact these long term structural realignments. God only knows how they will use this opportunity to sabotage this country.

Shot self in foot.

I wonder if their was change in the Catholic and Jewish vote this election cycle? Did the Evangelicals sit this one out? I have not heard yet.


12 posted on 11/08/2012 7:48:44 AM PST by BeauBo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

As a Newt supporter, I did not like how the Romney campaign carpetbombed him in Florida to get the nomination. That being said, I put that aside and still voted for Romney to at the very least - remove Obama. Unfortunately, Ron Paul voters don’t see it that way. It’s either their way or no way and it just might have cost Romney the election.


13 posted on 11/08/2012 7:50:09 AM PST by larryleo (We all need to get Newtered!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Errant

check this link:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2957009/posts


14 posted on 11/08/2012 7:51:54 AM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: R_Kangel

all you had to do was look at the totals on election night to realize our side did not come out to vote in numbers...thats why all this “Romney lost because of woman and latino’s” is BS- he lost because not enough white folks voted...

i am in agreement with you about the on the ground reports though most of the one i heard were from the morning- my only guess was people got to the polls early to avoid the evening rush...then again Virginia stopped counting because so many people were still on line when the polls closed...


15 posted on 11/08/2012 7:52:19 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

After the first debate, which Romney won impressively, he went on cruise control.

He backed down in the 2nd debate when Crowley and Obama both jumped him about Obama’s timeline for calling Benghazi attacks terrorism.

He coasted through the 3rd debate, not wanting to make waves. He got lauded with praise for appearing presidential.

He tried, like McCain did, to take the high road to the White House. Meanwhile, Obama was throwing everything, including binders and Big Bird at him. The ‘small things’ won the day.

Then, there was that incumbency thing. Incumbency is hard to defeat. I recall the shock when Bill Clinton won reelection. I was similar stunned Tuesday night.


16 posted on 11/08/2012 7:52:31 AM PST by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

really, man?

you need to look at the ballots to know who voted? they use the cross off sheets to tell ya who voted. And how many. Did they cross yer name off the list when you voted on TUES?


17 posted on 11/08/2012 7:53:23 AM PST by campaignPete R-CT (campaigning for local conservatives)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

“It’s not the people who vote that count. It’s the people who count the votes.” (attributed to Josef Stalin)


18 posted on 11/08/2012 7:54:13 AM PST by vortigern
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

There are still millions of absentee and provisional ballots that have not been counted yet


19 posted on 11/08/2012 7:54:34 AM PST by chemical_boy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Contemptible. Bastards ought to be taken out and bullwhipped. Now we’ve got Obama for another four years. Stupid mf’ers.


20 posted on 11/08/2012 7:55:20 AM PST by LibWhacker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jennychase

The last several posts are all correct, but only in part.

Because it was all three.

Anti-Mormons, Ron Pauls and turned off repubs who have no enthusiasm for Romney.

That said, they were all very foolish. They made it possible for the worst president in history, a Muslim Islamic Marxist to seriously damage our future.

Fools.


21 posted on 11/08/2012 7:55:56 AM PST by old curmudgeon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

325,000 ballots remain to be counted in your state


22 posted on 11/08/2012 7:56:04 AM PST by chemical_boy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Those seven million VOTED. Their votes were deliberately lost.


23 posted on 11/08/2012 7:56:04 AM PST by Mamzelle
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

Exactly. The paperless ballot machines (the modern solid state ones) can be rigged. There were and are reports of republican votes switching to dems as the ballot is cast. It may have never gotten counted at all. It could work in a predetermined ratio.

For example, for every 20 republican votes, one gets switched to the dems, one vote is dropped altogether. This type of fraud could explain why the votes are lower this year. Some votes were skimmed off.


24 posted on 11/08/2012 7:57:02 AM PST by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

If white voters sat out the election because they did not like Romney then they are as much to blame for Obamacare and all the other crap that will be flung at us.


25 posted on 11/08/2012 7:59:32 AM PST by AngelesCrestHighway
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TomGuy

agree with you 100%...Romney played prevent defense and prevent offense at the same time...left a lot of opportunity on the table during that 3rd debate...


26 posted on 11/08/2012 8:06:25 AM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: GeronL
Without paper ballots you can never prove those votes existed or not

Exactly.

Does it not occur to anyone that fraud could account for that?

27 posted on 11/08/2012 8:06:42 AM PST by metmom (For freedom Christ has set us free; stand firm therefore & do not submit again to a yoke of slavery)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TMA62

In every state in the Union?

Wouldn’t that be difficult?

I think that it was more likely three major groups turned off, as I stated above.

There is a large group who despise Mormons. I ran into that on another thread.

It shows up regularly on FR.

And another interesting question:

Have you noticed that the Ron Pauls have almost disappeared from FR?

They have not changed their beliefs. They are determined. So why have we not heard from them for the past couple of months? Why are they not gloating today, telling us how right they are and how wrong we are?

I think that is something we are ignoring at our peril.


28 posted on 11/08/2012 8:07:40 AM PST by old curmudgeon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
Nielsen: 66.8 Million Tune Into Election Coverage in Primetime, Down 6% from 2008

==

That is about 6 million drop in viewers:

71.5 million (2008) and 66.8 million (2012).


29 posted on 11/08/2012 8:08:36 AM PST by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jennychase
Anti-Mormons stayed home.

Oh gag.

Lose the martyr complex. Not one person I know even considered his Mormonism an issue.

30 posted on 11/08/2012 8:09:16 AM PST by metmom (For freedom Christ has set us free; stand firm therefore & do not submit again to a yoke of slavery)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: jennychase

Evangelicals stayed home, so yes you are correct.


31 posted on 11/08/2012 8:12:22 AM PST by Double Tap
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Libertarian candidate Johnson got 2 million votes - the record number of Libertarian votes since the party was founded in 1972. They usually get 300-500K votes in a Presidential election. These votes would have given the election to Romney.


32 posted on 11/08/2012 8:14:41 AM PST by bboop (does not suffer fools gladly)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

In which states did these white voters stay home? If they stayed home in Wyoming and Idaho, the point isn’t really consequential. If they stayed home in Virginia or Ohio, that’s a totally different matter.


33 posted on 11/08/2012 8:14:58 AM PST by ishmac (Lady Thatcher:"There are no permanent defeats in politics because there are no permanent victories.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: old curmudgeon

“In every state in the Union?”

__________________________

No. Just the major battleground states. Especially those who don’t require photo ID or if you don’t have to sign anything when you vote.

They (the republicans) better do recounts and canvassing the precincts. In 526 people showed up at a precinct, there better be 526 votes. If that number is different and especially lower, they better look into that.


34 posted on 11/08/2012 8:15:10 AM PST by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: BeauBo
Did the Evangelicals sit this one out? I have not heard yet.

That claim has been made but I don't believe it for a minute.

My family certainly didn't and I know people at church who would have crawled over broken glass to vote, not to mention quite a number of Evangelical FReepers.

We knew what was at stake.

I think voter fraud had more to do with the election than anything but the GOP, wusses that they are, will not pursue it, while if the dems thought that there was voter fraud resulting in their loss, they'd be all over it like white on rice.

A fault the acceptance of the loss with the GOP for not pursuing it and pressing the issue.

35 posted on 11/08/2012 8:15:18 AM PST by metmom (For freedom Christ has set us free; stand firm therefore & do not submit again to a yoke of slavery)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: TMA62

Thank you.


36 posted on 11/08/2012 8:17:12 AM PST by metmom (For freedom Christ has set us free; stand firm therefore & do not submit again to a yoke of slavery)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: Mamzelle

Bill Cunningham (cincy talkshow host) was on Hannity around 3 p.m. the day of the election. He said he talked to Republican election officials at Butler County near Cincinnati (Republican stronghold) and the offical said she had never seen such a turnout. THEN THE VOTES UNDERPERFORMED. ALARM BELLS!!!!!!!!


37 posted on 11/08/2012 8:18:53 AM PST by SC_Pete
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: AngelesCrestHighway
If white voters sat out the election because they did not like Romney then they are as much to blame for Obamacare and all the other crap that will be flung at us.

I don't subscribe to that. I'd lay blame with the morons back east who foisted Romney upon us. I had no meaningful say in his nomination and never felt any compelling reason to vote FOR him as opposed to AGAINST Hussein.

Since I live in blue Oregon, I skipped the presidential election line. I guess I am a missing white voter, not that it ever mattered.

My message is this: Put up a REAL conservative or quit caterwauling about the electoral fates of your Dim-Lites.
38 posted on 11/08/2012 8:22:49 AM PST by Goldsborough
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I wonder in retrospect if Romney’s decision to stay mute on the attacks against Chick-fil-A caused some white voters to stay home. That was a golden opportunity for him to stand for religious liberty and remove some of the doubts Evangelicals had about him. Also, he said very little about Obamacare’s contraception mandate, which may have caused some devout Catholics to stay home.

There were other reasons he lost, of course, but these may have been contributing factors.


39 posted on 11/08/2012 8:24:20 AM PST by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GeronL

We need to go back to one day voting and paper ballots supplemented with a photo id requirement and 24hour indelible purple ink. We do not need or want any computer assistance in tabulating our votes. The old fashioned way may take longer but vote integrity is worth it. These remedies are simple and common sense but I’ll fall over in a faint if they are enacted any time soon. We should also require that all military ballots are counted before any others.


40 posted on 11/08/2012 8:25:38 AM PST by Josephat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

Who says white voters didn’t show up.

Let’s remember the growing crowds for Romney, and the crickets at the Hussein rallies.

A simple tampering with voting machines can wipe out millions of repub votes.

Everyone I know could not wait to go vote. We waited 4 long painful years to do that.

We showed up, and they wiped out millions of our votes with the largest amount of vote fraud and tampering in history.


41 posted on 11/08/2012 8:27:29 AM PST by TheConservativeParty (Dems to Amerika : "All ur votes belong to us.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I know we can “Freep” a poll. Let’s see if we can Freep an issue. Bring up the fact that the Republicans stayed home on every site you can, in every comment section possible. NRO, Hot Air, and all the rest. Email right-leaning pundits. This is why Romney lost. The Republican base didn’t turn out, and the “experts” aren’t addressing it. They will answer it by running another moderate.


42 posted on 11/08/2012 8:28:18 AM PST by cdcdawg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Double Tap

Actually that is incorrect. Look at the numbers Ralph Reed put up today.


43 posted on 11/08/2012 8:28:30 AM PST by Bainbridge
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Double Tap

Actually that is incorrect. Look at the numbers Ralph Reed put up today.


44 posted on 11/08/2012 8:28:30 AM PST by Bainbridge
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio
Fascinating, and opposite to the prevailing conventional wisdom about why Romney lost. It's clear now that running moderate candidates (even competent and decent candidates like Romney) means we will lose. Romney bet that playing nice and running on conpetence would be enough, but bringing a knife to a gun fight leads to getting shot. He never respoded to Obama's attacks in kind, betting that playing nice would appeal to the mushy middle - he lost that bet. This piece is long, but well worth the read if you want to understand the lessons of the election.

>br> Of course. CNBC did an article on this yesterday but, they couched it in sarcasm, "Where was the angry white male voter", or something like that. Many white males of voting age stayed home but, of course we're gonna get the GOP claiming it's because of Akin or some other irrelevant person. They'll never get why. They and some on here will continue to talk about reaching out to Mexicans and blacks as if that's gonna help.
45 posted on 11/08/2012 8:32:23 AM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TonyInOhio

I hope everyone who posts on this thread, also look at all our comments on the earlier thread on this same article, at:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2957014/posts


46 posted on 11/08/2012 8:34:09 AM PST by Wuli
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bboop
Libertarian candidate Johnson got 2 million votes - the record number of Libertarian votes since the party was founded in 1972. They usually get 300-500K votes in a Presidential election. These votes would have given the election to Romney.

Not necessarily.

In NYS, even if all the third party votes had been given to Romney, he still would not have had enough votes to overcome obama. And there were votes for Johnson in there.

If those votes for him were spread out over the country, then it would have not made a difference as long as obama got the key states, the ones with high electoral votes.

Maybe Romney would have won the popular vote but overcoming the inertia of the high electoral vote states is tough.

47 posted on 11/08/2012 8:34:49 AM PST by metmom (For freedom Christ has set us free; stand firm therefore & do not submit again to a yoke of slavery)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: old curmudgeon

As a Ron Paul supporter, I address this by saying that I held my nose (yet again) and voted for Mitt. The only thing he ran on was the proposition that he is a better manager than Obama. He is, but that’s not going to get the base fired up. He didn’t give anyone a reason to vote for him. Add in Mormonism, flip-flopping, and lack of a geographic base, and 7 million apparently stayed home. At the end of the day, Romney was a better candidate than McCain. Whoopie.


48 posted on 11/08/2012 8:37:03 AM PST by cdcdawg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: SC_Pete

On Tuesday morning, it was reported that republican poll watchers were kicked out of Philadelphia precincts and replaced with dem poll watchers. Via court order, the republican poll watchers were allowed back around lunch time. What happened in their absence? In a related story also posted on FR, it is reported that some Philadelphia precincts had an 85 PERCENT TURNOUT. Were the dem poll watchers running dem friendly ballots over and over again in the morning when the republicans were not there?

From reports on Tuesday, turnout in urban and dem friendly areas was reported light to moderate. It was HEAVY in the republican ones. This is not passing the smell test, folks.


49 posted on 11/08/2012 8:37:16 AM PST by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: Double Tap
I had feared the same, especially after all the rabid anti-Mormon stuff that has been posted on FR. But Ralph Reed claims today that Evangelicals did turn out in big numbers:
"Evangelicals turned out in record numbers and voted as heavily for Mitt Romney yesterday as they did for George W. Bush in 2004," said Ralph Reed, chairman of Faith and Freedom Coalition. "That is an astonishing outcome that few would have predicted even a few months ago."
The Evangelicals went for Romney 78 to 21 according to the story in the Christian Post.
50 posted on 11/08/2012 8:38:13 AM PST by ishmac (Lady Thatcher:"There are no permanent defeats in politics because there are no permanent victories.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-148 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson