Skip to comments.Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - November 6, 2012 Post Mortem
Posted on 11/06/2012 11:43:03 PM PST by Political Junkie Too
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Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.
The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.
Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.
Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.
This Edition's Updates:
The Race for the White House
This will be a quick post mortem of the major misses in Rasmussen's swing-state polls. I understand that the actual results for all the states fell within each poll's margin of error, but one can convert the polling result and MOE into the probability of the leading candidate actually winning, and of the trailing candidate actually winning.
Probabilistically, Romney had an expected value of 266.9 Electoral Votes (P10 is 238, P90 is 292), and a 45.4% chance of winning. The actual result will be 306-206 for Obama. Romney performed at the P01 point on the curve. The P05 point was 231 EV.
The swing states that Rasmussen's polls missed are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia.
In Colorado, Rasmussen polled at 50%-47% for Romney. The odds of the trailing candidate winning is 19.5%. The actual result was 51%-47% for Obama, the reverse of Rasmussen's poll.
In Florida, Rasmussen polled at 50%-48% for Romney. The odds of the trailing candidate winning is 28.1%. The actual result was 50%-49% for Obama, the reverse of Rasmussen's poll.
In Iowa, Rasmussen polled at 49%-48% for Romney. The odds of the trailing candidate winning is 38.3%. The actual result was 52%-47% for Obama, the reverse of Rasmussen's poll, doubled.
In New Hampshire, Rasmussen polled at 50%-48% for Romney. The odds of the trailing candidate winning is 30.3%. The actual result was 52%-47% for Obama, the reverse of Rasmussen's poll.
In Virginia, Rasmussen polled at 50%-48% for Romney. The odds of the trailing candidate winning is 28.1%. The actual result was 50%-48% for Obama, the reverse of Rasmussen's poll.
As is the new norm in American elections, ALL the breaks ALWAYS go one way.
Something is seriously wrong here.
This is classic GIGO. Rasmussen and every other poll house that “found” a Romney push needs to look at their methodologies.
Something bizarre happened at about midnight. GOP was catching up in Fla., winning Va and No. CArolina, and overtaking Ohio and Fox CALLS it for Zero? Are you kidding? WTF???
Something needs looking into, alright. It ain’t the polls.
There could be some fraud, but also I think the “likely voter” theory has to completely be reworked. I still can’t get my head around the lower turnout reports in dem counties, higher in GOP counties....yet Obama winds up equalling 08? Something seems off...maybe the turnout were reports just wrong or wishful thinking.
The big difference between 2010 and 2012? Obama was on , ticket in 2012 and not in 2010. Thus I suspect 2014 will be a huge GOP year, but 2016 may be more like this.
The Dems seem to have tapped into some of the voters who would not normally vote, plus there are more of them (latinos). They will turn out for the BIG one, but might not get invested in the smaller races.
The GOP now has to mine the grassroots and start collection the “smaller” offices.
The question is, can the Dems nominate someone in 2016 who can replicate the enthusiasm.
JUST ANOTHER EVIL PLOT WAGED UPON US BY OUR EVIL REGIME. AND WE THOUGHT THIS WAS A 'FREE AND FAIR' ELECTION.. SHOULD'VE KNOWN SOMETHING WAS WRONG WHEN THE BLACK PANTHERS LAUGHED IN OUR FACES AS WE DID NOTHING TO EXTRICATE THEM OR THE GOP POLL WATCHERS WERE LOCKED OUT AND WE DID NOTHING TO FORCE THE ENEMY TO ALLOW THEM BACK IN.. JUST KEEP SURRENDERING AMERICA. NOT MUCH TIME LEFT. FOUR BRAVE AMERICANS LEFT STRANDED FOR DEAD BY OUR PRESIDENT BUT THE MEDIA RUNS A DIVERSION AND A HURRICANE SAVES THE DAY!!
For as long as females vote, and 0bama runs for office, females will vote for 0bama. He knows and the females know something we’re not allowed to talk about here. Sprinkle in MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD ON A NATIONAL SCALE and voila! Four more years o HELL.
If Republicans end up with only 44 Senate seats it’s going to take a huge tsunami to get them into a majority even then. They really blew it this time. Everyone is saying Akin cost us a seat in MO but McCaskill’s margin was so big I have to wonder if she might have beaten one of the other Republicans anyway. Senate races were just a disaster. I’m surprised Flake managed to win.
EFF FOX, EFF MEGAN KELLY. I WILL NEVER WATCH FOX AGAIN. GEORGE SOROS HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF THEM TOO.
Wasn’t Rasmussen’s final NH poll Obama +2?
Another day, another FRAUD, by the FRAUD
That makes the odds of running the remaining four states 0.6%.
Thanks for point that out to me.
Thanks PJ2, for all you efforts and know that you are, in my eyes at least, a true Freeper that deserves respect.
It might just be me, but it seemed like the early calls were on the basis of democrat strongholds still holding the vote tallies. I thought the panhandle of Florida would come through for Romney and that is normally the conventional wisdom for Florida Presidential voting, but numerous times the media and other posters noted that Miami-Dade still had yet to release half of their numbers.
It would not surprise me if the same thing happened in other swing states. It kind of throws things off a bit if you are watching from home because Romney was ahead and they still called it for Obama on the basis that one of these overwhelmingly democratic precincts had yet to dump their numbers.
Even with the correction to .6% I smell a rat. I’m in Cook County and around blacks and liberal whites all day and Obama’s enthusiasm level here was incredibly low.
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