As is the new norm in American elections, ALL the breaks ALWAYS go one way.
Unbelievable!
-PJ
-PJ
Something is seriously wrong here.
Wasn’t Rasmussen’s final NH poll Obama +2?
Even with the correction to .6% I smell a rat. I’m in Cook County and around blacks and liberal whites all day and Obama’s enthusiasm level here was incredibly low.
The number one issue was the economy. D +6 turnout in swing states vs Ras historical conventional D +2. Ras failed to predict the Takers > Producers bias. In Ras defense he did move from an R +2 to D +2 number last week so there was data that appears he was trying to re-weight. On election day Ras even stated he could not predict who would win so he knew he had a problem. The Takers > Producers bias is a new variable. The ‘Rat polls that predicted this just got lucky ... The broken clock adage.
The momentum was CLEARLY with MITT...republicans must have sat out this election. All RINO Mitt had to do is just show up to win, and he couldn't pull it off. WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU ABOUT RINOS?! FCOL, Mitt didn't even get the numbers McCain did in '08!! The rino record nationally is LOSE, LOSE, LOSE!!!!
It's mind boggling! Will the republican party ever wake up to this FACT???
Waiting for the HUGE exodus from the STUPID PARTY...
The fix was in, and I do not believe in whacko theories, but this.. this was well planed. Freaking MSM was calling it for Obama even before the voting began! We need to read up on George Orwell’s 1984.
The lesson is that the RCP average was more accurate than any individual pollster. And even though the RCP average, on the final day, was giving us bad news (this time around), we need to look at things as they are, not as we wish them to be.
I was on board with the whole “Dems were oversampled” mantra, but, in the end, the skewed polls approach of dissembling samples was way off. Sometimes one has to go where the numbers take one. In two years I expect major Republican gains and I suspect the polls leading into the elections will show that. And in four years I expect a GOP win for the presidency and I suspect the polls will show that as well. So we can sit back, smile, and watch the lefty sites try to explain away the polling numbers.
If I had one guess (sans numbers) about what happened, it was that the Obama turnout machine was remarkably effective given the drop in enthusiasm for his presidency. That allowed for a higher Dem turnout than one would have expected given all the exogenous indicators.
Rasmussen has a pretty good track record, but minor methodological issues can skew a series of polls one way, so hopefully he’ll examine his methods and revise them.