Iowa Hard Numbers

[TigerClaws]

See comment. Early voting stats

[TigerClaws]

According to new numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State, as of November 5th, Democrats have a 66,527 advantage over Republicans in early voting in the state, a 10 point advantage. That margin has only increased for Democrats by 1,428 since numbers were last reported from November 3rd.

The 673,124 early votes submitted is a record for the state, and equals 44% of all ballots that were cast in 2008.

These are the last early voting numbers we will get before polls close tonight, but are not the final numbers. According to Iowa Secretary of State spox Chad Olsen, a few more absentee ballots that were mailed in by the end of business on November 5th will be added to these totals.

Early Voting in Iowa as of November 5th: Dems - 281,966 (42%) GOP - 215,439 (32%) Other - 175,719 (26%) Total - 673,124

While the vote lead has grown for Democrats, it is much less than the 93,000 (17 point) early vote advantage Democrats held in 2008 over Republicans.

Democrats argue that a large percentage of the "No Party" early voters are actually voting for President Obama, but Republicans are banking on their voters showing up to the polls today, something historically they have done better than Democrats in this state.

IOWA VOTING STATS: 2012 Totals*: - 673,124 absentee ballots submitted (STATE RECORD) o Equals 44% of all ballots cast in 2008 o Equals 31% of registered voters o Dems - 281,966 (66,527 advantage) o GOP - 215,439 o No party - 174,850 o Other - 869 o Total requested - 741,510 - Registered voters: 2,166,539 *As of 11/5/2012

2008 Totals: - Registered - 2,105,534 - Total votes cast - 1,528,715 (72% turn-out) - 545,739 absentee ballots submitted o Equaled 35% of all ballots cast (1,528,715 total) o Dems - 250,104 (93,118 advantage) (46%) o GOP - 156,986 (29%) o No Party - 138,328 (25%) FINAL TOTAL IOWA RESULT: Obama 828,940 (54%) - McCain 682,379 (44%)

2004 Totals: - Registered - 1,971,735 - Total votes cast - 1,497,741 (75% turn-out) - 460,059 absentee ballots submitted o Equaled 31% of all ballots cast o Dems - 193,766 (52,570 advantage) (42%) o GOP - 141,196 (31%) o No Party - 125,097 (27%) FINAL TOTAL IOWA RESULTS: Bush 751,957 (50%) - Kerry 741,898 (49%)

[Raycpa]

Democrats argue that a large percentage of the "No Party" early voters are actually voting for President Obama,

The percentage of "no party" early voting is about the same for 2008 and 2012. This leaves a gigantic shift away from Democrats voting toward Republicans voting.

[Defiant]

Does this mean the nursing homes have finished voting for their wards, and from here on, its up to sentient citizens?

[Raycpa]

Summary:

Total early vote increase 128,000 from 546,000 23% higher

Democrat increase 32,000 from 250,000 12% higher
Republican increase 58,000 from 157,000 36% higher
No party increase 37,000 from 138,000 26% higher

No party is tracking same percentage of total vote.

Republicans tracking much higher than average.

Democrats tracking much less than average.

It sure indicates substantial more intensity for the republicans than existed 4 years ago and substantially less intensity for democrats.

[Michael.SF.]

Some quick calcs on this.

Assumptions- 5% Dems voting R and independents breaking 55% R to 45% D, then gives:

326,182 votes for Romney
267,867 Votes for Bronco Bama.

55% vs 45%

[MHT]

Do those numbers represent the declared party affiliation of those doing the early voting or the party for which the early voters actually voted?

[Professional]

I like your math.

The GOP has not had a landslide election in a very long time. Today is the day.

[LS]

Do some different math, if you would; 3% Ds for Romney,
2-point Indy advantage. Are there enough votes to catch up?

[Mike Darancette]

Early Voting in Iowa as of November 5th: Dems - 281,966 (42%) GOP - 215,439 (32%) Other - 175,719 (26%) Total - 673,124

We can use these numbers as a very large Poll sample, Lets use the CNN D+11 results and run the numbers.

Obama votes:
95% of 281,966 (Democrat Votes)= 267,867,
01% of 215,439 (GOP Votes)= 2,154
39% of 175,719 (Ind votes)= 68,530
Total Obama Votes = 338,512 for 50.3%

So Obama won the Early vote by .7% what are the chances that the people voting in person will be D+10?

[ConservativeDude]

thanks for that summary....i love summaries.

[gusopol3]

I doubt newspaper endorsements of themselves mean much. But the flip from Obama in ‘08 to Romney in ‘12 shows that whatever kind of voters the editorialists are, are changing their minds.

[wiggen]

To my knowledge all the early numbers you see until after the poll closes in that state are affiliation and not tallies.

[Michael.SF.]

That would equate to a 53-47 Romney margin.

[MHT]

So, if Romney is getting about 60% of the 25% independents, our % moves from 32% to 47%, leaving about 53% for the Dems. And, if they find their strength in early voting rather than poll voting, Iowa might still be a possible Romney win (even though I have never thought that would be the case).