Skip to comments.Presidential Bellwethers: Close Election; Electoral Path for Romney
Posted on 11/06/2012 10:29:08 AM PST by goldstategop
Mitt Romney has a path to 270 electoral votes, but no room for error, according to Suffolk Universitys analysis of bellwether areas in the key swing states of Ohio and New Hampshire.
Romney held leads in Lake County, Ohio and in the towns of Epping and Milford, New Hampshire. The states of Ohio and New Hampshire are key to Romneys path to victory, and a must hold for President Barack Obama to stave him off.
A bellwether is an area of a state that closely mirrors a statewide electoral outcome using similar election types from previous elections and other data. Suffolk Universitys bellwether model has been used since 2002 and is 95 percent accurate in predicting outcomes but is not designed to predict margin of victory. All bellwether analyses carry a margin of error similar to a statewide poll. Ohio
In Lake County, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted. Duncan, an Ohioan listed on the presidential ballot, received most of his support from voters who have already cast ballots for him in Lake County, causing neither major candidate to reach a decisive 50 percent there.
What better place to decide this presidential election than on the banks of Lake Erie, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. A word of caution about Lake County. It is widely recognized as an Ohio bellwether, correctly predicting the last four presidential elections. But there have been some elections where it has trended more Republican. That was the case in 1996 and 2008, where Lake County voted for the Democratic nominees who won, but still leaned more Republican than the statewide vote.
Below is a comparison of which presidential candidate won in Ohio and percentage of votes received statewide and the comparative vote of Lake County:
1996 - Clinton Statewide: 47 percent Lake County: 44 percent
2000 - Bush Statewide: 50 percent Lake County: 50 percent
2004 Bush Statewide: 51 percent Lake County: 51 percent
2008 Obama Statewide: 52 percent Lake County: 50 percent New Hampshire
Two New Hampshire towns, Epping and Milford, have mirrored the statewide New Hampshire vote in four out of four presidential elections going back to 1996. In Milford, Romney led Obama 51 percent to 46 percent and in Epping, a closer bellwether, Romney led Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.
Below is a comparison of which presidential candidate won in New Hampshire statewide and the comparative votes of Epping and Milford:
1996 Clinton Statewide: 50 percent Epping: 50 percent Milford: 48 percent
2000 Bush Statewide: 49 percent Epping: 48 percent Milford: 50 percent
2004 Bush Statewide: 50 percent Epping: 50 percent Milford: 51 percent
2008 Obama Statewide: 54 percent Epping: 53 percent Milford: 52 percent
In both Suffolk University statewide polls taken over a week ago, both Ohio and New Hampshire were found to be deadlocked at 47 percent to 47 percent for both the Democratic and Republican nominees. U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts
In the Massachusetts race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren led Republican Scott Brown in two bellwether areas, the city of Waltham (50 percent to 47 percent) and the city of Gloucester (53 percent to 45 percent). In the last three presidential elections, these two areas had all three U.S. Senate outcomes correct and were close to the statewide vote as well.
Below is a comparison of which U.S. Senate candidate won in Massachusetts statewide and the comparative votes for Waltham and Gloucester:
1996 Kerry Statewide: 51 percent Waltham: 53 percent Gloucester: 51 percent
2000 Kennedy Statewide: 69 percent Waltham: 69 percent Gloucester: 71 percent
2004 No Senate race
2008 Kerry Statewide: 64 percent Waltham: 66 percent Gloucester: 64 percent
Since 1996, no Republican candidate has won a U.S. Senate seat during a presidential election year in Massachusetts, although Republican Governor Bill Weld came close in 1996, losing to incumbent Democrat John Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent.
The great thing about exp-nding the map is it opens new paths to victory. For instance, Romney doesn’t absolutely need Ohio. He could take Pennsylvania instead.
Not sure why NH rates this high in the discussion. If OH is lost, then NH my itself does little. Seems like WI should be part of the discussion with OH. WI + IA (or WI + NH or WI + NV) all make OH unnecessary for 270.
According the WSJ, the Gary Johnson vote is the problem for Romney in New Hampshire. It may hand New Hamshire to Obama, which sounds like it may be all right with Johnson. What kind of a Libertarian is that?
Romney will win OH and he will also win PA and WI.
MN and MI are bridges too far.
He’ll carry the Electoral College with a comfortable majority.
MN and MI are bridges too far.
Hell carry the Electoral College with a comfortable majority.
I was commenting on the specifics in the linked article. I'm glad you believe Romney will have a comfortable Electoral victory. I prey that you are right.
prey => pray (sheesh! :( )
I understand the bellwether argument but it, like any number of other indicators, can be upset by one factor: the unprecedented events of the last 4 years under Obama.
As the stockbrokers always say, “past results are no guarantee of future performance”. Elections have been fairly predictable in the past and we’ll know in another day or so whether that is still the case.
Pray that the days of siege, a time that has found us the prey, are nigh ended.
Certainly hope you’re correct. At what time EST do you think the final outcome will be announced? Hopefully early as likely nothing in PTZ for Romney.
Not so true. There are even ways to win with or without NH and even while losing these states OH, PA, WI, and MI.
This is the closest electoral win that can happen for Romney (see below) but likely won't.
An interactive electoral map that you can play what "if".
Does that make you more comfortable with your refusal to vote for Romney?
Oops, the interactive electoral map should have been set to 269 to 269 where Congress would vote to make Romney Pres.
Win or lose, I have zero confidence in the electoral system for addressing the problems facing this country anymore.