Forecast: Mitt Romney Will Likely Win Ohio

Disreport ^

[scooby321]

Duh

[Ravi]

I predict Ohio turnout will be 6 million. I said that yesterday. 1.8 million total early voters is about 30% of total turnout.

That’s my prediction.

8 million registered voters I believe for a 75% turnout of registered voters - outstanding.

[Doctor 2Brains]

for later

[CatOwner]

Likely? Wow, strong language. /s

[BlueStateRightist]

Best news all day! Based on hard data and rigorous, conservative analysis. Let’s hope it holds up.

[Huskrrrr]

This author should be a rocket scientist.

[snarkytart]

Ravi. Still optimistic for Ohio today?

[MyHub]

Idk about all of this. From everything I’ve read, Nate Silver is typically pretty spot on. So I’ll take his viewpoint over the supposed weighting disparity in early polls. I guess we’ll see tonight who was right!

[snarkytart]

Why don’t you go hide under covers today? You are so miserable in every thread.

[onyx]

Happy with FR now?

How about Contributing Today?

[Ravi]

Oh, yes based on all the data I’ve seen. It all comes down to turnout.

[HerrBlucher]

Nate Silver is going to get his ass handed to him today.

[Ravi]

Where’s the sarcasm tag?

[gdani]

Late Monday night the Ohio Secretary of State released the “final” early voting results from Ohio’s counties.

"Results" is not quite accurate. We know how many absentee ballots were requested & how many were cast. But we do not know how they actually voted.

[Nervous Tick]

This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount.

LOL... wut? Paramount, maybe? Even that word is awkward in that place. And that's not the only place where his writing is clumsy.

I think the author is on to something and the numbers and conclusions are pleasant to my ear. However, he's trying, but failing, to put on that authoritative scholarly tone. Maybe it's just me, but I'm always a little suspicious of the motives of folks who do that.

[BunnySlippers]

Is that someone’s blog?

[Red Steel]

Nate Silver is typically pretty spot on.

He's willfully ignorant.

[Jim from C-Town]

I stopped reading after the second scenario. All I heard in my head was Charlie Brown’s teacher ‘Wha Wha Wha Wha’.

[Jim from C-Town]

Nate Silver figured ONE election when he was 29. That was 2008. Everyone picked O’Bumbler by a mile. He actually under performed against the polls.

Nate Silver MISSED 2010. Totally. He missed WI THREE TIMES! He is a Leftist Punk who couldn't figure out how to count to eleven if he wasn't a man.