Why it’s Romney and Not Very Close

Townhall.com ^ | November 6, 2012 | John Ransom

[Atlas Sneezed]

In Nevada, Republicans trail by seven points in early voting.

o In 2008, they trailed in the two major counties (which made up 88% of the early votes cast) by 19 points.

---

Sloppy assumption. The two big counties are Clark (heavy Dem) and Washoe (lean Dem), adn do not represent the state overall. The remaining 12% of Nevada voters are in counties with 70-90% Republicans.

[Windflier]

Sure all the numbers look like Romney has a real shot today. But, let’s not forget - PEOPLE WANT THEIR FREE STUFF. PERIOD. AND THEY WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA.

Well, hell. Here I was, all fired up to get out and vote to get rid of Obama, but why bother? You convinced me. There's no point. The parasite class is just gonna beat us anyway.

I'm staying home.

[omni-scientist]

One set of numbers that most people fail to mention is the electoral vote shift that happened after the 2010 census. With only one exception I can think of (WA state) electoral vote losses were all by blue states, and the gains were by red states and swing states. This makes a Romney win marginally easier today than a McCain win in 2008.