Skip to comments.Why itís Romney and Not Very Close
Posted on 11/06/2012 4:21:36 AM PST by Kaslin
If you were expecting a cliff hanger, you still could get one, but really its Romney and it likely wont be close.
There are a few reasons why I think that.
We will delve into those, but we will also look at the voting datapoints provided by pollster Chris Wilson that say an Obama win just isnt in the cards.
First, lets list my feelings as to why I dont think Obama will win.
Obama hasnt delivered.
Except perhaps bankrupting anyone who wants to operate coal-fired power plants.
Oh, and keeping gas prices high.
And apologizing to rest of the world for Americas greatness.
He has not been the great unifier he promised to be, and, if Sandy is any indication, the seas have not receded on his watch.
I thought Obama promised that if elected hed put out an executive order telling the seas to recede. Hes put one out on everything else.
What the heck is the EPA doing? Shouldnt that be their first priority to stop the seas from overwhelming us?
It would be nice if instead of trying to pass Cap and Trade, Obama would have passed something less ambitious like trying to remediate the higher sea levels for costal communities like New York City.
As the editors of National Review write: Tunnel-improvement projects do not have the sex appeal of a global climate crusade, but they represent a more prudent use of our capital, both political and real.
Thats something a president can help do.
Its another example of where Obamas priorities often fashion upon fantasies rather than facts. Healthcare, auto bailout, Cap and Trade, Dodd-Frank, voter IDs and immigration reform. The list of solutions under Obama grows from the improbable to the impractical.
Four years into Obamas term and the economy is still terrible. Yes the 3rd quarter was stronger but next quarter wont be good, nor will the 1st quarter of 2013. Theres a record amount of cash sitting around in fewer assets than ever before. Thats not a good sign. And the Federal Reserve seems panicky too. Its never good when the Fed says they want to keep interest rates at zero for the next two years.
Consumer confidence is at the highest level its been at all year, but is that really enough?
Anything under 100 is considered anemic and we are currently at 72. And pretending that unemployment and underemployment are still not a drag on the economy happens nowhere outside the presidents council of economic advisors.
Voters vote their pocket book. And the improvement in economic conditions says more about the blindness of the administration than it does about an economic miracle that will rescue Obama.
Because, according pollster Chris Wilson at Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, there is a lot of data from early voting that suggests turnout in 2012 will be much closer to 2010 than to 2008. (Sign up for Wilson's blog here).
Tomorrow night (or more likely Wednesday morning), writes Wilson in his election update to clients, someone is going to look pretty bad. It might be the pollsters who have continually insisted on using a 2008 model for their polls. Or it will be pollsters like us and other analysts who have criticized the 2008 model as unrealistic and exaggerating Obamas advantage.
Wilson goes on to look at early voting in Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada, awarding each to Romney because early voting numbers tend to confirm that Obamas not reaching the critical mass that generates turnout that he needs for a win.
Reading tea leaves
Now, for the very impatient, here are some hints in the latest early voting data distributed today by the AP:
In Colorado, Republicans lead by two points in early vote turnout.
o In 2008, Democrats lead by two points in early vote turnout.
o Thats a four point swing toward Republicans; but not enough to erase Obamas 2008 advantage without some big shifts among Independents.
o And, recent polling has shown Obama leading Independents by just two points when he won them by ten in 2008, according to the exit polls.
o So, based on this, Colorado goes Romney.
In Iowa, Republicans have an 11 point gap in early votes so far, which compares to an 18 point gap in 2008.
o Obama won Iowa in 08 by more than nine points, so there will have to be an even bigger shift in Election Day votes to change the outcome.
o So, based on this, Iowa goes Obama.
Ohio is notoriously hard to judge for early voting because the only party registration is based on the last primary in which a voter cast a ballot.
o But, based just on that measure and absentee/early ballot requests, Republicans have shaved a 14 point 2008 gap down to a six point gap (an eight point gain) in a state Obama won by less than five points in 08.
o So, based on this, Ohio goes Romney.
In Nevada, Republicans trail by seven points in early voting.
o In 2008, they trailed in the two major counties (which made up 88% of the early votes cast) by 19 points.
o Even accounting for the fact that the rural counties are more Republican, thats a significant closing in a race Obama won by slightly under 13 points in 2008 and makes Nevada a very close race even assuming Independents dont shift.
*But Romney leads among Independents by seven points in the latest Las Vegas Review Journal poll (Obama won Independents by 13 according to the 2008 exit polls).
o So, based on this, Nevada goes Romney.
By Wilsons estimate that leaves Romney at 268 electoral votes, just 2 shy of the 270 needed to win the presidency without considering states where early voting data isnt a available such as Virginia (Obama at 48% in RCP average), New Hampshire (Obama at 49% in RCP average), and perhaps even a Pennsylvania (Obama at 50% in RCP average), Wisconsin (Obama at 50% in RCP average) or even Oregon (Obama at 50% in RCP average). All those RCP (Real Clear Politics) averages are based on polls relying on 2008 models.
Wilson gets paid to do this for a living. True hes a Republican pollster, but in order to make a living at it, he needs to be right. A lot. And he is. A lot.
Hes one of the smartest guys in the business.
In 2008, Obama won the national vote total by 8 million votes. In simple terms, if 4 million and 1 votes had voted the other way, Obama wouldnt have been elected. Obama took the field in 2008 because voter intensity amongst Democrats was higher than for Republicans.
Hell lose because voter intensity is polar opposite from 2008.
Ask yourself this: After four years of Obamanomics, are four million voters sorry they have voted for Obama?
Certainly; more than four million in fact.
I think I personally know at least that many.
And on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning so will Barack Obama.
The bloom is off Obummer's plume.
The country will vote to fire O.
Republicans and Independents hate his guts and want him out.
There’s no use pretending O has an outside chance - not after Denver was a game-changer.
I smell victory in the air.
I hate to be a KillJoy, but...even if Romney has a small edge, there’s gonna be a lot of liberal voter fraud (people voting multiple times). I keep reading about people tweeting that they voted multiple times—and that’s just the stupid ones who announce it. For every one of them, there will be 1000s who do it and keep their mouth shut. And then there are the truckloads of illegals who will vote Obama. Many voting officials, especially timid and/or liberal ones, will just look the other way. Some may even assist.
Dems don’t care about “rules” — they just want their side to win. They justify this behavior by telling themselves that the issues are too important NOT to cheat.
This is why we have to turn out in vast vast numbers.
I agree. Using 2008 numbers is a huge mistake. No matter what you hear vote vote vote.
The GOP has never been very good at combating vote fraud. If you are right, then that quote about about having a Republic if you can keep it comes into play.
VICTORY FOR MITT!!! (please)
It is going to be a tough day. Sure all the numbers look like Romney has a real shot today. But, let’s not forget - PEOPLE WANT THEIR FREE STUFF. PERIOD. AND THEY WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA. Those of us that have contributed over our life or are contributing now have to get out there and vote. A gaffe means a true statement one shouldn’t say. 47% was a gaffe. It is true. Remember: The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money. ― Alexis de Tocqueville This holds true to President’s too! VOTE!
That is a legitimate concern, but in my opinion it’s counterproductive to openly worry about it right now. Also, i remember before the Wisconsin recall people here were saying similar things. Yet of course we not only won, but won big.
Let’s not psych ourselves out. Whatever they may or may not do, we can overcome it if we stay positive and turn out en masse.
This is the only day in the last 4 years I wish I still had cable so I could watch liberal news anchors like Chris Matthews soil themselves on national TV.
But sadly, this post is irrelevant. I think the Chicago machine is in full force for today and tomorrow, with the help of numerous national and international bodies, and they'll do enough "creative" work to steal yet another one.
In 2004 many of the libs got drunk and began slurring their words on the air when it appeared Bush was going to win. Not an exaggeration.
I do hope Prissy Chrissy has his adult diapers on.
place mark... lots to read today.
My lifetime experience... the worse the road trip, the better the end result...
they lost my voter card at the polls, the lady with it just took off... took the poll workers about 10 minutes to find her and get me a ballot.. place was packed..
accidents on the freeway on my way in, with slow mo mo fo’s all over the place, took over an hour and a half to get in..
sooo, bad road trip equals excellent results..
romney in a landslide, pub house and pub senate, with the states putting pubs in all over the place...
Lets not psych ourselves out. Whatever they may or may not do, we can overcome it if we stay positive and turn out en masse.
Dems dont care about rules they just want their side to win. They justify this behavior by telling themselves that the issues are too important NOT to cheat.”””
Voter ID has to be the main issue in every single state in the Union in the immediate future.
Early voting only gives the Dems more opportunity to have their minions vote in a number of places. I don’t think those ‘provisional’ ballots are chacked against the whole state & surely not against the whole nation.
Early voting only gives the Dems more opportunity to have their minions vote in a number of places. I dont think those provisional ballots are chacked against the whole state & surely not against the whole nation.
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