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Why itís Romney and Not Very Close
Townhall.com ^ | November 6, 2012 | John Ransom

Posted on 11/06/2012 4:21:36 AM PST by Kaslin

If you were expecting a cliff hanger, you still could get one, but really it’s Romney and it likely won’t be close.

There are a few reasons why I think that.

We will delve into those, but we will also look at the voting datapoints provided by pollster Chris Wilson that say an Obama win just isn’t in the cards.

First, let’s list my “feelings” as to why I don’t think Obama will win.

Obama hasn’t delivered.

On anything.

Except perhaps bankrupting anyone who wants to operate coal-fired power plants.

Oh, and keeping gas prices high.

And apologizing to rest of the world for America’s greatness.

He has not been the great unifier he promised to be, and, if Sandy is any indication, the seas have not receded on his watch.

I thought Obama promised that if elected he’d put out an executive order telling the seas to recede. He’s put one out on everything else.

What the heck is the EPA doing? Shouldn’t that be their first priority to stop the seas from overwhelming us?

It would be nice if instead of trying to pass Cap and Trade, Obama would have passed something less ambitious like trying to remediate the higher sea levels for costal communities like New York City.

As the editors of National Review write: “Tunnel-improvement projects do not have the sex appeal of a global climate crusade, but they represent a more prudent use of our capital, both political and real.”

That’s something a president can help do.

It’s another example of where Obama’s priorities often fashion upon fantasies rather than facts. Healthcare, auto bailout, Cap and Trade, Dodd-Frank, voter IDs and immigration reform. The list of solutions under Obama grows from the improbable to the impractical.              

Four years into Obama’s term and the economy is still terrible. Yes the 3rd quarter was stronger but next quarter won’t be good, nor will the 1st quarter of 2013. There’s a record amount of cash sitting around in fewer assets than ever before. That’s not a good sign. And the Federal Reserve seems panicky too. It’s never good when the Fed says they want to keep interest rates at zero for the next two years.

Consumer confidence is at the highest level it’s been at all year, but is that really enough?

Anything under 100 is considered anemic and we are currently at 72. And pretending that unemployment and underemployment are still not a drag on the economy happens nowhere outside the president’s council of economic advisors. 

Voters vote their pocket book. And the improvement in economic conditions says more about the blindness of the administration than it does about an economic miracle that will rescue Obama.          

Because, according pollster Chris Wilson at Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, there is a lot of data from early voting that suggests turnout in 2012 will be much closer to 2010 than to 2008. (Sign up for Wilson's blog here).

“Tomorrow night (or more likely Wednesday morning),” writes Wilson in his election update to clients, “someone is going to look pretty bad.  It might be the pollsters who have continually insisted on using a 2008 model for their polls.  Or it will be pollsters like us and other analysts who have criticized the 2008 model as unrealistic and exaggerating Obama’s advantage.”

Wilson goes on to look at early voting in Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada, awarding each to Romney because early voting numbers tend to confirm that Obama’s not reaching the critical mass that generates turnout that he needs for a win.

Reading tea leaves

Now, for the very impatient, here are some hints in the latest early voting data distributed today by the AP:

         In Colorado, Republicans lead by two points in early vote turnout.

o   In 2008, Democrats lead by two points in early vote turnout.

o   That’s a four point swing toward Republicans; but not enough to erase Obama’s 2008 advantage without some big shifts among Independents.

o   And, recent polling has shown Obama leading Independents by just two points when he won them by ten in 2008, according to the exit polls.

o   So, based on this, Colorado goes Romney.

         In Iowa, Republicans have an 11 point gap in early votes so far, which compares to an 18 point gap in 2008.

o   Obama won Iowa in ’08 by more than nine points, so there will have to be an even bigger shift in Election Day votes to change the outcome.

o   So, based on this, Iowa goes Obama.

         Ohio is notoriously hard to judge for early voting because the only “party registration” is based on the last primary in which a voter cast a ballot.

o   But, based just on that measure and absentee/early ballot requests, Republicans have shaved a 14 point 2008 gap down to a six point gap (an eight point gain) in a state Obama won by less than five points in ‘08.

o   So, based on this, Ohio goes Romney.

         In Nevada, Republicans trail by seven points in early voting.

o   In 2008, they trailed in the two major counties (which made up 88% of the early votes cast) by 19 points.

o   Even accounting for the fact that the rural counties are more Republican, that’s a significant closing in a race Obama won by slightly under 13 points in 2008 and makes Nevada a very close race even assuming Independents don’t shift.

*But Romney leads among Independents by seven points in the latest Las Vegas Review Journal poll (Obama won Independents by 13 according to the 2008 exit polls).

o   So, based on this, Nevada goes Romney.

By Wilson’s estimate that leaves Romney at 268 electoral votes, just 2 shy of the 270 needed to win the presidency without considering states where early voting data isn’t a available such as “Virginia (Obama at 48% in RCP average), New Hampshire (Obama at 49% in RCP average), and perhaps even a Pennsylvania (Obama at 50% in RCP average), Wisconsin (Obama at 50% in RCP average) or even Oregon (Obama at 50% in RCP average).  All those RCP (Real Clear Politics) averages are based on polls relying on 2008 models.”

Wilson gets paid to do this for a living. True he’s a Republican pollster, but in order to make a living at it, he needs to be right. A lot. And he is. A lot.

He’s one of the smartest guys in the business.

In 2008, Obama won the national vote total by 8 million votes. In simple terms, if 4 million and 1 votes had voted the other way, Obama wouldn’t have been elected.  Obama took the field in 2008 because voter intensity amongst Democrats was higher than for Republicans.

He’ll lose because voter intensity is polar opposite from 2008.

Ask yourself this:  After four years of  Obamanomics, are four million voters sorry they have voted for Obama?

Certainly; more than four million in fact. 

I think I personally know at least that many.

And on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning so will Barack Obama.  


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: riggedpolls

1 posted on 11/06/2012 4:21:37 AM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin
MEDIA POLLING is to quote Rush Limbaugh, "THE BIGOTRY OF LOW EXPECTATIONS"!

The bloom is off Obummer's plume.

2 posted on 11/06/2012 4:25:49 AM PST by Tugo (Romney & Ryan)
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To: Kaslin

The country will vote to fire O.

Republicans and Independents hate his guts and want him out.

There’s no use pretending O has an outside chance - not after Denver was a game-changer.


3 posted on 11/06/2012 4:26:01 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Kaslin

I smell victory in the air.


4 posted on 11/06/2012 4:47:04 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: goldstategop

I hate to be a KillJoy, but...even if Romney has a small edge, there’s gonna be a lot of liberal voter fraud (people voting multiple times). I keep reading about people tweeting that they voted multiple times—and that’s just the stupid ones who announce it. For every one of them, there will be 1000s who do it and keep their mouth shut. And then there are the truckloads of illegals who will vote Obama. Many voting officials, especially timid and/or liberal ones, will just look the other way. Some may even assist.

Dems don’t care about “rules” — they just want their side to win. They justify this behavior by telling themselves that the issues are too important NOT to cheat.


5 posted on 11/06/2012 4:49:16 AM PST by rbg81
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To: rbg81

This is why we have to turn out in vast vast numbers.


6 posted on 11/06/2012 4:56:33 AM PST by waxer1 ("The Bible is the rock on which our republic rests." -Andrew Jackson)
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To: Kaslin

I agree. Using 2008 numbers is a huge mistake. No matter what you hear vote vote vote.


7 posted on 11/06/2012 5:00:05 AM PST by waxer1 (Don't vote for revenge. Vote for love of country-Mitt Romney)
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To: rbg81
"Dems don’t care about “rules” — they just want their side to win. They justify this behavior by telling themselves that the issues are too important NOT to cheat."

The GOP has never been very good at combating vote fraud. If you are right, then that quote about about having a Republic if you can keep it comes into play.

8 posted on 11/06/2012 5:03:25 AM PST by Truth29
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To: goldstategop
Just heard Robert Gibbs on Fox & Friends offering nothing but went to the "blame Bush" card the whole interview!

VICTORY FOR MITT!!! (please)

9 posted on 11/06/2012 5:04:24 AM PST by Bushbacker1 (I miss President Bush! 2012 - The End Of An Error! (Oathkeeper))
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To: Kaslin

It is going to be a tough day. Sure all the numbers look like Romney has a real shot today. But, let’s not forget - PEOPLE WANT THEIR FREE STUFF. PERIOD. AND THEY WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA. Those of us that have contributed over our life or are contributing now have to get out there and vote. A gaffe means a true statement one shouldn’t say. 47% was a gaffe. It is true. Remember: The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” ― Alexis de Tocqueville This holds true to President’s too! VOTE!


10 posted on 11/06/2012 5:08:50 AM PST by dan on the right
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To: rbg81

That is a legitimate concern, but in my opinion it’s counterproductive to openly worry about it right now. Also, i remember before the Wisconsin recall people here were saying similar things. Yet of course we not only won, but won big.

Let’s not psych ourselves out. Whatever they may or may not do, we can overcome it if we stay positive and turn out en masse.


11 posted on 11/06/2012 5:14:42 AM PST by Humbug
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To: Kaslin

This is the only day in the last 4 years I wish I still had cable so I could watch liberal news anchors like Chris Matthews soil themselves on national TV.


12 posted on 11/06/2012 5:15:50 AM PST by Safrguns
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To: Kaslin
I wonder if, in the case of a Romney popular vote victory today, if anyone will take the opportunity to remind the Progressive folk that if their National Popular Vote Bill kicked in today, then 132 of Obama's Electoral Votes would STILL go to Romney. (HI, CA, WA, IL, MD, DC, NJ, MA, and VT) Instead of, say, a 273-265 spread for Romney, it would become a 405-133 debacle. And even worse for them, it could be pointed out, even if Obama found the extra X-million votes to be the popular vote winner, he would gain exactly ZERO Electoral Votes from that very same bill. Their minds will explode, and then they will quickly scream for that bill to be repealed in those 9 states. (The pact is NOT in force today because the signatory states do not yet total half of the available EV's... "only" 25% right now.)

But sadly, this post is irrelevant. I think the Chicago machine is in full force for today and tomorrow, with the help of numerous national and international bodies, and they'll do enough "creative" work to steal yet another one.

13 posted on 11/06/2012 5:16:08 AM PST by Teacher317 ('Tis time to fear when tyrants seem to kiss.)
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To: Safrguns
This is the only day in the last 4 years I wish I still had cable so I could watch liberal news anchors like Chris Matthews soil themselves on national TV.

In 2004 many of the libs got drunk and began slurring their words on the air when it appeared Bush was going to win. Not an exaggeration.

14 posted on 11/06/2012 5:18:51 AM PST by old and tired
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To: Safrguns

I do hope Prissy Chrissy has his adult diapers on.


15 posted on 11/06/2012 5:19:07 AM PST by Lurkina.n.Learnin (Superciliousness is the essence of Obama)
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To: Kaslin

place mark... lots to read today.


16 posted on 11/06/2012 5:20:43 AM PST by kinsman redeemer (The real enemy seeks to devour what is good.)
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To: Kaslin

My lifetime experience... the worse the road trip, the better the end result...

they lost my voter card at the polls, the lady with it just took off... took the poll workers about 10 minutes to find her and get me a ballot.. place was packed..

accidents on the freeway on my way in, with slow mo mo fo’s all over the place, took over an hour and a half to get in..

sooo, bad road trip equals excellent results..

romney in a landslide, pub house and pub senate, with the states putting pubs in all over the place...


17 posted on 11/06/2012 5:40:48 AM PST by joe fonebone (The clueless... they walk among us, and they vote...)
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To: Humbug

Let’s not psych ourselves out. Whatever they may or may not do, we can overcome it if we stay positive and turn out en masse.


I have no intention of “psyching myself out”. If anything, the spectre of voter fraud should motivate people to turn out. I’m going to vote on the way to work. In the final analysis, its the best I can do.


18 posted on 11/06/2012 5:46:42 AM PST by rbg81
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To: rbg81

Dems don’t care about “rules” — they just want their side to win. They justify this behavior by telling themselves that the issues are too important NOT to cheat.”””

Voter ID has to be the main issue in every single state in the Union in the immediate future.

Early voting only gives the Dems more opportunity to have their minions vote in a number of places. I don’t think those ‘provisional’ ballots are chacked against the whole state & surely not against the whole nation.


19 posted on 11/06/2012 6:27:27 AM PST by ridesthemiles
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To: ridesthemiles

Early voting only gives the Dems more opportunity to have their minions vote in a number of places. I don’t think those ‘provisional’ ballots are chacked against the whole state & surely not against the whole nation.


I concur about whole early voting thing. There are too many ways to milk that for voter fraud. Also, if voting was only on Election day, a lot of libs would be too lazy to do it. And then there’s Motor Voter....


20 posted on 11/06/2012 7:00:19 AM PST by rbg81
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To: Kaslin

In Nevada, Republicans trail by seven points in early voting.

o In 2008, they trailed in the two major counties (which made up 88% of the early votes cast) by 19 points.


Sloppy assumption. The two big counties are Clark (heavy Dem) and Washoe (lean Dem), adn do not represent the state overall. The remaining 12% of Nevada voters are in counties with 70-90% Republicans.


21 posted on 11/06/2012 7:29:31 AM PST by Atlas Sneezed (Hold My Beer and Watch This!)
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To: dan on the right
Sure all the numbers look like Romney has a real shot today. But, let’s not forget - PEOPLE WANT THEIR FREE STUFF. PERIOD. AND THEY WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA.

Well, hell. Here I was, all fired up to get out and vote to get rid of Obama, but why bother? You convinced me. There's no point. The parasite class is just gonna beat us anyway.

I'm staying home.

22 posted on 11/06/2012 7:37:51 AM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Tugo

One set of numbers that most people fail to mention is the electoral vote shift that happened after the 2010 census. With only one exception I can think of (WA state) electoral vote losses were all by blue states, and the gains were by red states and swing states. This makes a Romney win marginally easier today than a McCain win in 2008.


23 posted on 11/06/2012 7:49:39 AM PST by omni-scientist
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