“we’re possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. ‘08...(1/2)”
So you mean that those stupid D+6 polls are....wrong???
NO WAY!
In other words, if the GOP has the edge in the electorate and its R+1 or R+2 today, O’s 2008 winning margin can be wiped out and Romney should carry the Buckeye State by five points. Its all about the turnout now, stupid!
The link doesn’t work.
Again, the link does NOT work!
There is 100% chance that Nate Silver will be crying like a baby by midnight.
If I read this correctly there’s a 5pt difference, which if applied to the election day turnout means Obama wins by 2pt.
Now I know that’s not a fair comparison because GOP turnout has been historically better on election day than in early voting.
But it raises the question of what happens if it turns out that the increase in early voting is due to GOP voters shifting to early turnout and not indicative of much of an overall turnout increase?
Just how many of them were actually votes for Romney?
I saw some numbers somewhere that said 99% of Republicans are projected to vote for Romney, but only 90-95% of Democrats will vote for Obama. I can't remember where I saw those numbers -- anyone else see them?
And in a state like Ohio, with the widespread disatisfaction over Obama's war on coal, healthcare mandates, gay marriage stance, etc., the percentage of Democrats voting for Romney could be a lot higher.