Silver got 2008 and 2012. Was he on the money in 2004 as well?
“Silver got 2008 and 2012. Was he on the money in 2004 as well?”
No, I’m including 2010. The final results for the generic ballot in 2010 was Republicans by +6.8. RealClearPolitics had their final forecast as Republicans +9.4:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
Nate Silver’s model had the final projection as Republicans +6.8....see the 16th paragraph here. He wasn’t even off by a tenth of a percentage point. That’s one hell of a model: