“Silver got 2008 and 2012. Was he on the money in 2004 as well?”
No, I’m including 2010. The final results for the generic ballot in 2010 was Republicans by +6.8. RealClearPolitics had their final forecast as Republicans +9.4:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
Nate Silver’s model had the final projection as Republicans +6.8....see the 16th paragraph here. He wasn’t even off by a tenth of a percentage point. That’s one hell of a model:
In 2010, Silver gave the GOP only a 25% chance of flipping 60 House seats. It ended up being 67. Some vaunted model...
Yea but from your link:
“But it tells you basically the same thing. Tonight, our forecast shows Republicans gaining 53 seats.”
We won a dozen more seats than that figure, so while his percentages were correct he low balled our seat gain. Gallup over shot by the same amount. Idk. I wanna see how accurate he is when Obama is not in the race. There’s something odd.