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Pundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread
Washington Post ^ | November 5, 2012 | by Brad Plumer

Posted on 11/05/2012 7:17:58 PM PST by Oldeconomybuyer

Here are the electoral vote predictions from various modelers, political scientists and pundits from around the Internet. All predictions are as of Monday evening:

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Obama 303, Romney 235.

Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 303, Romney 235.

Drew Linzer, Emory University: Obama 326, Romney 212.

Michael Barone, The Examiner: Romney 315, Obama 223.

Ezra Klein, The Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248.

Larry Sabato, UVA Center for Politics: Obama 290, Romney 248.

Josh Putnam, Davidson College: Obama 332, Romney 206.

Jay Cost, Weekly Standard: Romney victory.

Philip Klein, The Examiner: Obama 277, Romney 261.

Ross Douthat, New York Times: Obama 271, Romney 267.

Jamelle Bouie, The American Prospect: Obama 303, Romney 235.

George Will, The Washington Post: Romney 321, Obama 217.

Ben Domenech, The Transom: Romney 278, Obama 260.

Markos Moulitsas: Obama 332, Romney 206.

Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253.

James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 327.

Dick Morris, FoxNews: Romney 325, Obama 213.

Jim Cramer, CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98.

Dean Chambers, UnskewedPolls.com: Romney 311, Obama 227.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2012; pundits2012

1 posted on 11/05/2012 7:18:04 PM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

And Nate Silver says Obama up to 91.4%. LoL.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 7:20:49 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

0bamma gets 43% of the popular vote.

ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton


3 posted on 11/05/2012 7:21:48 PM PST by ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton (Go Egypt on 0bama)
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: Oldeconomybuyer

Jim Cramer is either Joking or high. I say Romney 288 Obama 250.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 7:22:31 PM PST by rwh
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 327.

Not possible.

6 posted on 11/05/2012 7:23:04 PM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 327.

That must be a typo...628 total electors??? It's 538 total.

Also, Jim Cramer has Obama 440 and Romney 98, what is he smoking???

7 posted on 11/05/2012 7:23:44 PM PST by boatbums (God is ready to assume full responsibility for the life wholly yielded to Him.)
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To: rwh

I’m glad Cramer isn’t managing my money.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 7:25:49 PM PST by PhiloBedo (You gotta roll with the punches and get with what's real.)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

There are ONLY two ways to go:

Romney 300+

... or ...

“After we win this election, it’s our turn. Payback time. Everyone not with us is against us and they better be ready because we don’t forget. The ones who helped us will be rewarded, the ones who opposed us will get what they deserve. There is going to be hell to pay. Congress won’t be a problem for us this time. No election to worry about after this is over and we have two judges ready to go.” V. Jarrett


9 posted on 11/05/2012 7:26:43 PM PST by C210N ("ask not what the candidate can do for you, ask what you can do for the candidate" (Breitbart, 2012))
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Great idea for a thread! Thanks!


10 posted on 11/05/2012 7:27:02 PM PST by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: SoFloFreeper

>> James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 327. Not possible.

IS possible.

It’s just arithmetic, FRiend: add up the EV from all 57 states and it totals 628.


11 posted on 11/05/2012 7:30:40 PM PST by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

I tend to agree with Barone, its going to be Romney 315, Obama 223 or thereabouts.

It will be a Romney landslide and a humiliating defeat for Obummer.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 7:36:39 PM PST by WonkyTonky
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To: SoFloFreeper

Very possible if you include all 57 states.


13 posted on 11/05/2012 7:37:41 PM PST by MNDude (OWS Movement RIP)
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To: rwh

Olde says: Romney-53%, Obama-46%, Other-1%


14 posted on 11/05/2012 7:38:28 PM PST by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: Nervous Tick

Dang! You said it first.


15 posted on 11/05/2012 7:39:29 PM PST by MNDude (OWS Movement RIP)
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To: MNDude

Yeah, you know the old saying, “even a blind tick occasionally finds a capillary”. Or something like that. :-)


16 posted on 11/05/2012 7:47:35 PM PST by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: Oldeconomybuyer
Romney Popular Vote 52%+

Electoral Vote
Minimum - 277
McCain plus NH, FL, NC, VA, IA, WI, & CO

Expected - 311
Minimum plus OH, MN, & NV

High end - 347
Expected plus PA & MI

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

17 posted on 11/05/2012 7:49:16 PM PST by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
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To: boatbums

Looks like a transposition of the 2 and 3. Should probably read 301 - 237.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 7:49:51 PM PST by FoxInSocks ("Hope is not a course of action." -- M. O'Neal, USMC)
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

Might as well weigh in with my most optimistic scenario: 55%-45% Romney, 353-185

From here:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map


19 posted on 11/05/2012 8:09:36 PM PST by Forgiven_Sinner (Seek you first the kingdom of God, and all things will be given to you.)
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To: rcrngroup

Check these predictions by the partisan MSM (most of the ones on this prediction page) and double check THEIR accuracy by tomorrow night!


20 posted on 11/05/2012 8:37:20 PM PST by rcrngroup
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