Skip to comments.Pundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread
Posted on 11/05/2012 7:17:58 PM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
Here are the electoral vote predictions from various modelers, political scientists and pundits from around the Internet. All predictions are as of Monday evening:
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Obama 303, Romney 235.
Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 303, Romney 235.
Drew Linzer, Emory University: Obama 326, Romney 212.
Michael Barone, The Examiner: Romney 315, Obama 223.
Ezra Klein, The Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248.
Larry Sabato, UVA Center for Politics: Obama 290, Romney 248.
Josh Putnam, Davidson College: Obama 332, Romney 206.
Jay Cost, Weekly Standard: Romney victory.
Philip Klein, The Examiner: Obama 277, Romney 261.
Ross Douthat, New York Times: Obama 271, Romney 267.
Jamelle Bouie, The American Prospect: Obama 303, Romney 235.
George Will, The Washington Post: Romney 321, Obama 217.
Ben Domenech, The Transom: Romney 278, Obama 260.
Markos Moulitsas: Obama 332, Romney 206.
Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253.
James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 327.
Dick Morris, FoxNews: Romney 325, Obama 213.
Jim Cramer, CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98.
Dean Chambers, UnskewedPolls.com: Romney 311, Obama 227.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
And Nate Silver says Obama up to 91.4%. LoL.
0bamma gets 43% of the popular vote.
Jim Cramer is either Joking or high. I say Romney 288 Obama 250.
That must be a typo...628 total electors??? It's 538 total.
Also, Jim Cramer has Obama 440 and Romney 98, what is he smoking???
I’m glad Cramer isn’t managing my money.
There are ONLY two ways to go:
... or ...
After we win this election, its our turn. Payback time. Everyone not with us is against us and they better be ready because we dont forget. The ones who helped us will be rewarded, the ones who opposed us will get what they deserve. There is going to be hell to pay. Congress wont be a problem for us this time. No election to worry about after this is over and we have two judges ready to go. V. Jarrett
Great idea for a thread! Thanks!
>> James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 327. Not possible.
It’s just arithmetic, FRiend: add up the EV from all 57 states and it totals 628.
I tend to agree with Barone, its going to be Romney 315, Obama 223 or thereabouts.
It will be a Romney landslide and a humiliating defeat for Obummer.
Very possible if you include all 57 states.
Olde says: Romney-53%, Obama-46%, Other-1%
Dang! You said it first.
Yeah, you know the old saying, “even a blind tick occasionally finds a capillary”. Or something like that. :-)
Minimum - 277
McCain plus NH, FL, NC, VA, IA, WI, & CO
Expected - 311
Minimum plus OH, MN, & NV
High end - 347
Expected plus PA & MI
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
Looks like a transposition of the 2 and 3. Should probably read 301 - 237.
Might as well weigh in with my most optimistic scenario: 55%-45% Romney, 353-185
Check these predictions by the partisan MSM (most of the ones on this prediction page) and double check THEIR accuracy by tomorrow night!
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