Posted on 11/05/2012 9:22:53 AM PST by nhwingut
When I posted that DU touted PEW poll yesterday, it may have looked like some hyperventilating. However, I wanted to show the internals which really favored Romney, and the difference between the headline of registered voters O 50% R 47% v. likely voters, 0 48% R 45%, and again, Obama doesn’t make it to 50% with like voters.
-PEW over-weighted women voters v. men voters by 8%
-PEW showed Indies breaking for Romney - 49% to 0 37%.
-PEW as usual over-weighted Dems like the rest of the Dem media pollsters.
PEW is also run by Madeleine Albright who as we know was Billy Clinton’s Secretary of State. So I know they are biased big time.
Exactly. If half the independents are going for Obama, and Obama pulls 85% of Dems, Romney would have to be at 65% with Republicans. Nutty Numbers.
Good link, thanks.
This explains a lot as to why Rasmussen is using a D+ model. You have to go with what has been historically accurate....now, if by some miracle the exit polls show R+ this year, it’ll be a more difficult job for pollsters in 2016.
Of course, it makes sense that more Ds show up in exit polls if it is true that Ds are more prone to talking to people...while Rs won’t.
Good link, thanks.
This explains a lot as to why Rasmussen is using a D+ model. You have to go with what has been historically accurate....now, if by some miracle the exit polls show R+ this year, it’ll be a more difficult job for pollsters in 2016.
Of course, it makes sense that more Ds show up in exit polls if it is true that Ds are more prone to talking to people...while Rs won’t.
Nate Silver - BWAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA! (It’s going to be better tomorrow - Silver, the NY Slimes, Wash. Compost, and PMSNBC all in one night...exploding (talking, liberal) heads...
Ahahaha you were laying in the weeds my friend!!!!!!!!!
I’d rather go in with low expectations. That way if it’s bad news tomorrow, I’ll be ready for it. And if it’s good news, it’ll be an even bigger rush of excitement. Any negativity I feel in advance of the election is mitigated by the fact that it’s still an uncertain outcome.
So either it’s slightly unhappy now followed by either a big rush or a mild crash tomorrow...
Or it’s slightly happy now followed by either a big crash or a mild rush tomorrow...
If I wore a Chick-Fil-A T-shirt to vote, would it be considered partisan campaigning within a polling place?
I think a lot of independents and Republicans have held back in their support because they weren’t sure Mitt could make it to the end in this climate. I think the enthusiasm is newly found respect and pure glee. I know I’m as impressed as all get out, and I’ve always liked Mitt. He has whipped the media and now it’s time to take it to Obama.
Despite RAS saying that he thinks the final turnout will be D/R/I of 39/37/24 (and I disagree) it turns out that for the full week ending SUN 11/04 he was using a D+4 sample!
No wonder his Republicans for Romney number was low
For those of you that have subscriptions:
Also, it is clear that for the full week, the Governor loses one point due to rounding. The “Leaning Romney” number is shown a 0, which is why the poll is R:49 O:48
However 1% of whites (74% of sample) lean Romney. But that got rounded down
BOTTOM LINE: Scott Rasmussen believes that in the general populace Republicans outnumber Democrats by 6% (as per his October release)
However, he believes that on Election Day, we will get a D+2 sample
ON TOP OF THAT, he polls with a D+4 sample!!
Because Rasmussen does not vary his sample based on his party identification results. I don’t understand why he doesn’t, but he doesn’t.
And there is nothing that the Criminal Organization Formerly Known as ACORN can do about it, because they can't cheat enough to make a difference.
Interesting. October 2012 closely resembles October 2008, except Republicans and Democrats have changed places.
That's because he is presuming that all the illegal voters are Democrat.
The polls have been based on false assumptions to keep an appearance of it being close.
This is why they know the GOP isn't going to lose the Congress!
Tomorrow is going to be a great day as millions of Americans rise up and retake this nation from the Marxists who have controlled it for the last 4 years.
The polls have been based on false assumptions to keep an appearance of it being close.
This is why they know the GOP isn't going to lose the Congress!
Tomorrow is going to be a great day as millions of Americans rise up and retake this nation from the Marxists who have controlled it for the last 4 years.
I've met them in PA. They're nominal Republicans. Maybe Rockefeller or Bloomberg Republicans. They're Republican because their parents were and they just "see" themselves that way. But their views are mostly liberal. They're likely to have voted for Ron Paul in the primary. They may have succumbed to peer pressure over the years from being in a heavily Democrat region where they were told they were "stupid" if they supported Bush. It also may be a form of "soft" rebelling against their parents votes.
I guess Rasmussen has to keep the numbers close to get you guys curious enough about the internals to become platinum members of his site.
“Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.”
I bet 1/2 of them are Democrats and liberal indie Obuggery sympathizers who lied that they were GOP voters.
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