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PPP: Obama leads in Ohio(+5) and Virginia(+4) (Also Obama up +2 in Iowa, N.H.)
PPP ^ | 11-4-12 | PublicPolicyPolling

Posted on 11/04/2012 7:09:03 PM PST by tcrlaf

PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.

Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. They don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50, Allen's is 42/48.

(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: Ohio; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: ohio; poll; ppp
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This is the same pollster that explained away there huge miss in the Wisconsin Recalls by saying "We underestimated the amount of Voter Anger out there."

Ohio sample is 1,000 Likely Voters 43% Dems, 35% Repubs, 22%I (+8 Dems!)

The crosstabs show Romney favorability in Ohio one-point HIGHER than Obama's! Only 20% over 65, with 15% Under 29. Wow... What can you say about this??

Ohio 2008 exits: 39 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican, 30 percent Independent.

So, MORE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO TURN OUT AND VOTE FOR OBAMA in 2012, than in 2008??? REALLY????

1 posted on 11/04/2012 7:09:03 PM PST by tcrlaf
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To: tcrlaf

not what I’ve been seeing.


2 posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:29 PM PST by television is just wrong
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To: tcrlaf

             

3 posted on 11/04/2012 7:12:28 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
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To: tcrlaf

All of these conflicting polls give me a headache. We shall see Tuesday if these pollsters were correct or just making stuff up.


4 posted on 11/04/2012 7:14:25 PM PST by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: tcrlaf

In Virginia I see 6 to 10 Romney signs for each Bronco Bama sign, and the Obama2012 bumper stickers are downright rare whereas NoVa was lousy with them in 2008.

I predict Romney will take Virginia by no less than seven. Call me optimistic, but I don’t see Obama taking Virginia.


5 posted on 11/04/2012 7:15:12 PM PST by Smedley (It's a sad day for American capitalism when a man can't fly a midget on a kite over Central Park)
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To: television is just wrong

We’ll know for sure on Tuesday night, but, it sure seems that they have been doctoring the polls, to create the impression that Obama is more popular than he really is.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 7:16:38 PM PST by Dilbert San Diego ('s)
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To: tcrlaf

Sure Obama is leading. That’s why Obama had 2800 at his last rally and Romney had 30,000 at his.

Obama is kicking azz . LMAO.

I sure will be glad Tuesday night when I have the real poll.


7 posted on 11/04/2012 7:16:57 PM PST by Venturer
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To: television is just wrong

I was at the West Chester Rally Friday night. no way that 25-30,000 people standin line for hours for a loser...

The electricity was palpable.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 7:17:37 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: tcrlaf

I’m sure Dims across the nation are giving one big sigh of relief upon their reading of this PPP poll.

Congratulations to the Dims must be in order (not!).

Oldplayer


9 posted on 11/04/2012 7:17:48 PM PST by oldplayer
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To: tcrlaf

+8 is ridiculous. +7 in 2008 was the largest turnout advantage in history if I’m not mistaken. Republicans are much more energized and likely to vote this time. Furthermore, although Obama holds an edge in early voting the Democrat turnout numbers are way down from 2008.


10 posted on 11/04/2012 7:18:49 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: television is just wrong

We’ll know for sure on Tuesday night, but, it sure seems that they have been doctoring the polls, to create the impression that Obama is more popular than he really is.


11 posted on 11/04/2012 7:19:23 PM PST by Dilbert San Diego ('s)
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To: tcrlaf

Well we’ve had a CNN poll today with +11 Dems and now this silly poll with +8 Dems.

MSM is really desperate to conceal Romney’s momentum. How do we know his Mo is still going? Look where Romney is campaigning (Blue states) and the size of his crowds in Dem territory (30K+). That’s all you need to know.


12 posted on 11/04/2012 7:20:20 PM PST by conservativepoet
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To: tcrlaf

PPP...thanks for the laughs..what next, a poll from the Daily Kos..hey how about they poll the idiots who work at MSNBC..PPP is a far left polling group I am laughing right now at these poll results thanks for the laughs


13 posted on 11/04/2012 7:21:56 PM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: tcrlaf

I’m headed to the Columbus rally tomorrow (from Dayton).


14 posted on 11/04/2012 7:22:12 PM PST by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, Democrats believe every day is April 15th.)
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To: Smedley
Bronco Bama

15 posted on 11/04/2012 7:24:42 PM PST by Bobalu (It is not obama we are fighting, it is the media.)
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To: television is just wrong

Pass the model airplane glue - it worked well for y’all. Romney in a blowout landslide. I know it. Feels lime 1980.


16 posted on 11/04/2012 7:24:54 PM PST by epluribus_2
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To: Sarah Barracuda

I was reading some stuff about PPP and push polling at Twitchy the other night....one of PPP’s questions was “Who do you trust more to make the rich pay their fair share?”


17 posted on 11/04/2012 7:25:19 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: tcrlaf
Reince Preibus was just on Hannity and demonstrated that the early vote numbers for Obama in Ohio are down 260,000 from 2008. Obama only won by 250,000 votes in 2008. So even if Romney only performs the same as McCain on election day he would still win by 10,000 vote...I think Romney is going to perform substantially better than McCain in Ohio...
18 posted on 11/04/2012 7:25:24 PM PST by apillar
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To: conservativepoet

Rasmussen has a tie in Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin and I think PA. He has Romney up one in Michigan and Romney clearly ahead in VA and Florida. I don’t remember about N.H.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 7:25:27 PM PST by Eva
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To: tcrlaf

Dems are quietly fearful of losing a few more seats in the House. No media poll or MSM analyst is predicting that the Dems gain the House or even come close. So how is it possible that Republicans increasing seats in the House could happen at the same time when enthusiasm (as set by a D+7 or D+8 turnout model) is supposed to be higher for Dems than in the unusual wave election of 2008? This is pure hogwash!!


20 posted on 11/04/2012 7:25:58 PM PST by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: tcrlaf

And all of these polls will be cassetted without question into the Real Clear Politics average. Then every MSM outlet will simply state the “RCP average for Virginia shows Obama holding a 2.4 point lead...”

This is all deliberate and extremely odious.


21 posted on 11/04/2012 7:26:47 PM PST by BlueStateRightist
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To: Dilbert San Diego

If Romney wins, and especially if he wins BIG, as I think he will, the Mainstream Media, and it’s pollsters, have some serious ‘splainin’ to do....


22 posted on 11/04/2012 7:27:09 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: Eva

This stupid PPP poll, and all the others like it, are a last ditch attempt to suppress the GOP vote. But it ain’t gonna work. And these polling companies will be laughed at Tuesday, and, hopefully, out of business on Wednesday.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 7:27:39 PM PST by Signalman
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To: tcrlaf

They are circling the wagons, dont be surprised if Gallup does the same on Monday also

I am confident only because my friend Michael Barone says so,otherwise I would be worried


24 posted on 11/04/2012 7:27:56 PM PST by Friendofgeorge (Michael Barone says its a landslide...believe it)
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To: television is just wrong

Pass the model airplane glue - it worked well for y’all. Romney in a blowout landslide. I know it. Feels like 1980.


25 posted on 11/04/2012 7:27:57 PM PST by epluribus_2
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To: conservativepoet

Rasmussen: Iowa remains neck-and-neck in the closing days of Election 2012, with Mitt Romney now showing a one-point lead.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds the Republican challenger with 49% support, while President Obama earns 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) like someone else in the race, and one percent (1%) is undecided.

Rasmussen has Romney at 50%, Obama at 48%. Wisconsin a tie, Ohio tied and PA tied and trending Romney.. Florida is solid Romney. Even Oregon is a toss up, trending Romney.

With left leaning newspapers, all over the country, making last minute Romney endorsements, it looks like election night may be disappointing for Democrats.


26 posted on 11/04/2012 7:28:30 PM PST by Eva
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To: tcrlaf

The poll is good news in VA and Ohio, PPP Democrat Poll, always review the internals. In both state -2 view of Obama +2 on Romney. Sampling way off. I am at the point I think Ohio is safer than VA which I had felt good about for some time. Bottom line, these polls and CNN are all positive indicators. Again look where the candidates are. Heck PA has to be looking good if Dems are sending Clinton back for four stops. Think about it NOT OBAMA , Clinton, because he is more popular their than Obama


27 posted on 11/04/2012 7:29:39 PM PST by shoedog
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To: conservativepoet

Rasmussen: Iowa remains neck-and-neck in the closing days of Election 2012, with Mitt Romney now showing a one-point lead.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds the Republican challenger with 49% support, while President Obama earns 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) like someone else in the race, and one percent (1%) is undecided.

Rasmussen has Romney at 50%, Obama at 48%. Wisconsin a tie, Ohio tied and PA tied and trending Romney.. Florida is solid Romney. Even Oregon is a toss up, trending Romney.

With left leaning newspapers, all over the country, making last minute Romney endorsements, it looks like election night may be disappointing for Democrats.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 7:29:45 PM PST by Eva
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To: Signalman
Dick Morris is on Live now on Greta. He just shredded the PEW poll.

Dick still says...LANDSLIDE!!

29 posted on 11/04/2012 7:30:01 PM PST by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
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To: tcrlaf
Here's what's interesting to me. In OH Obama's only winning 86% of Blacks, while he's winning 92% of Blacks in VA?

What were the 2008 numbers in those two states again? Nationally Obama got 98% of Blacks. According to CNN (am I looking in the right place here?) Obama drew 97% of the Black vote in Ohio and 92% in VA.

Virginia is consistent (although Black turnout will probably be lower this year) but Obama dropping 11 points amongst OH Blacks? Is that anything other than a collapse of support?
30 posted on 11/04/2012 7:30:34 PM PST by tanknetter
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To: Eva

“Rasmussen has a tie in Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin and I think PA. He has Romney up one in Michigan and Romney clearly ahead in VA and Florida.”

While it would be nice if true, I think your facts regarding MN, PA and MI are not correct. Could you provide links to Rasmussen demonstrating these figures? Last MI poll at Rasmussen shows Romney down 5. I’ve yet to see a recent MN or PA poll from Rasmussen.


31 posted on 11/04/2012 7:32:56 PM PST by BlueStateRightist
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To: tcrlaf

Any poll that shows Oblahblah up more in Ohio and Virginia than in Iowa is suspect.

Who knows, maybe the libs are right and the country is even more in love with the Kenyan this time than they were in 2008? If so, then he will win just like these polls predict, and our country will continue its stampede towards the economic toilet.

I’m just not seeing it though. I’m really not.


32 posted on 11/04/2012 7:33:08 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: tcrlaf

Unless it’s a propoganda arm of a party or cause a political polling firm’s main purpose would be making money.If such a firm is wildly inaccurate one would think it would cut into profits...unless,perhaps,they know that they have a built in customer base.Or maybe the “real* money is made doing the “internal” polls that the general public never sees.


33 posted on 11/04/2012 7:34:21 PM PST by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: Signalman

Dick Morris is on Fox right now predicting a Romney landslide win.


34 posted on 11/04/2012 7:34:28 PM PST by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: tcrlaf

Then why post it? this is one poll that really should be banned from this site. We have a ton of other polls to look at why give this bunch any attention. All it does is make people frustrated or anxious.


35 posted on 11/04/2012 7:34:30 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: tcrlaf

It’s not called the PeePee Poll for nothing.


36 posted on 11/04/2012 7:35:18 PM PST by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: tcrlaf

Oh Brother, Not this #$%^ again


37 posted on 11/04/2012 7:35:34 PM PST by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: rdl6989
Dick Morris is on Fox right now predicting a Romney landslide win

Oh noes, kiss of death? //sarc

38 posted on 11/04/2012 7:35:35 PM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Signalman

I have a question about posting. I didn’t think that any of my posts that I made tonight went through because all I got was a blank page. I was just about to give up, but wanted to post that Rasmussen poll.

So, if we get a blank page, we should just assume that the post went through. Forget accessing the response page, won’t ever happen.

Maybe FreeRepublic should ditch the side bar and simplify the posting until after the election.


39 posted on 11/04/2012 7:35:39 PM PST by Eva
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To: trappedincanuckistan

PPP is the same polling company that back in 2008 showed that Obama would win...ALASKA..LOL..their polling is actually quite funny..see that is the mantra now, make Obama look like the winner..to keep Republicans from voting on Tuesday..we are ENERGIZED..Obama is going DOWN


40 posted on 11/04/2012 7:36:07 PM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: tcrlaf

Unless it’s a propoganda arm of a party or cause a political polling firm’s main purpose would be making money.If such a firm is wildly inaccurate one would think it would cut into profits...unless,perhaps,they know that they have a built in customer base.Or maybe the “real* money is made doing the “internal” polls that the general public never sees.


41 posted on 11/04/2012 7:37:06 PM PST by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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Comment #42 Removed by Moderator

To: comebacknewt; All

6 Point spread between Rasmussen, and PPP, in both Ohio and Virginia.

Two days out from the election.

Someone is off. WAY OFF...
The question that MUST be asked after the election, is WHY?


43 posted on 11/04/2012 7:39:37 PM PST by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: Gay State Conservative

If all of these polls are correct, this will be nearly as big a blowout as McCain suffered. Does anyone actually believe that?!!? I just can’t see it. If so, our only hope going forward would be to scrap the GOP and infiltrate and moderatize and split the Democrat party.


44 posted on 11/04/2012 7:41:59 PM PST by amishman
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To: tanknetter

It’s not the percentage of blacks Obama gets, but how many show up to vote. Hate to sound cliche, but it’s ALL ABOUT TURNOUT. Dem voting in Ohio in 2008 was down from 2004. We lost because the bottom fell out of GOP participation.


45 posted on 11/04/2012 7:42:00 PM PST by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: tcrlaf

The poll is good news in VA and Ohio, PPP Democrat Poll, always review the internals. In both state -2 view of Obama +2 on Romney. Sampling way off. I am at the point I think Ohio is safer than VA which I had felt good about for some time. Bottom line, these polls and CNN are all positive indicators. Again look where the candidates are. Heck PA has to be looking good if Dems are sending Clinton back for four stops. Think about it NOT OBAMA , Clinton, because he is more popular their than Obama


46 posted on 11/04/2012 7:42:10 PM PST by shoedog
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To: Sarah Barracuda

CNN just released a ridiculous D+11 poll.


47 posted on 11/04/2012 7:42:18 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: tanknetter
In OH Obama's only winning 86% of Blacks, while he's winning 92% of Blacks in VA?

The sub-sample of blacks in Ohio and Virginia isn't going to be large enough (maybe 130-or-so each) for the difference to be statistically significant.

48 posted on 11/04/2012 7:43:18 PM PST by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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2012 is lost, 2016 anyone?


49 posted on 11/04/2012 7:43:38 PM PST by yield 2 the right (2012, the election year that stinks!)
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To: tcrlaf

Ugh Not TRUE they had Walker winning their last poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/06/walker-leads-by-3-points.html

How come everyone here keeps repeating that falsehood that all the polls had Walker losing or “too close to call” when all the polls I’ve looked at had it right with the recall, yes even PPP.


50 posted on 11/04/2012 7:44:09 PM PST by snarkytart
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