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A Final Romney Surge?
National Review ^ | 11/4/12 |  Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 11/04/2012 1:29:09 PM PST by randita

The storm for a week diverted attention away from the growing Mitt Romney wave, and for a time highlighted the president, replete in bomber jacket, as presidential in directing relief efforts, as news understandably went silent on the huge Romney crowds and another dismal jobs report, and turned instead to administration officials appearing engaged and busy — all critical for both turnout and a key 3—5 percent of the voters who probably have not yet made up their minds. It is hard to calibrate the effect, but Romney seemed last week to be slipping 1–3 percent in many of the polls.

But after a week, the volatile ebb and flow is changing one final time — as millions were left without power and help, the Libyan catastrophe won’t go away as voters are beginning to grasp that it was the worst terrorist attack since 9/11 (and largely avoidable), and the president foolishly reverted to his customarily divisive form in revving up his base to go to the polls in the spirit of “revenge.”

The result is that Romney’s October momentum seems like it is resuming, as he appears far more presidential than the incumbent, who is running as a challenger on the premise that he has not been president the last four years. Obama’s tenor is reminiscent of a desperate Jerry Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush who in the last 72 hours of their campaigns could feel their presidencies slipping away, without the ability to do much about it. In contrast, Romney’s crowds and buzz are far more reminiscent of a down-the-stretch upbeat 1980 Reagan, 1992 Clinton — and 2008 Obama — whom you could feel in the last few hours of the campaigns were happy warriors surging as never before.

In truth, throughout this entire hare-and-tortoise campaign, Romney has been steady, disciplined, and focused, and has dealt well with surprises — from the 47 percent video release to Hurricane Sandy — something not true of the herky-jerky president, at least if we look at the nature of the pro-Obama ads, the stump-speech rhetoric, and the crudity of all sorts of surrogates and supporters. Apparently, Obama decided that he could win only by going negative and talking about hypotheticals rather than the last four years — and so may thereby have ensured that he will lose. For most voters, it is just too much for a bright and shining Messiah to end up as an all-too-real Nixon.


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: riggedpolls; romney2012; vdh

1 posted on 11/04/2012 1:29:09 PM PST by randita
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To: randita

YESSSSSSS!!!!!!!!


2 posted on 11/04/2012 1:34:01 PM PST by WashingtonSource
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To: randita

Other than Romney’s vicious attack [/s] for Obama saying ‘vote for revenge,’ and Romney responding ‘vote for love of country,’ Romney hasn’t done/said anything to change the momentum he had coming out of the first debate.

Romney’s vision is upbeat, uplifting, pro-America.

Obama has been negative, mean, nasty, vicious, thuggish, condescending, angry since the 2nd debate. It shows and many do not like it.


3 posted on 11/04/2012 1:40:49 PM PST by TomGuy
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To: randita

That’s nice but the new PEW poll is not good.


4 posted on 11/04/2012 1:42:51 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: randita

Barack be nimble, Barack be quick, Barack be history, November 6th.


5 posted on 11/04/2012 1:48:39 PM PST by dancusa (Barack be nimble, Barack be quick, Barack be history, November six..)
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To: snarkytart
That’s nice but the new PEW poll is not good.

Is that the D+6 poll?

Snarky, I have to be honest. If there was a big FReeper party, you would be one of the people I would avoid. Whining, complaining, negative people are a turn off.

It will be, what it will be, but negativity does no good for anybody. You remind me of my mother who always has a black cloud over her head.

6 posted on 11/04/2012 1:53:26 PM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: snarkytart

7 posted on 11/04/2012 1:53:57 PM PST by SamAdams76
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To: snarkytart

The PEW oversamples D+s. Its been oversampling them all year.

Ignore PEW. How do you see the campaigns performing?

Again, people don’t turn in large numbers to listen to a loser and newspaper editors don’t endorse someone who won’t win.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 1:55:41 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: snarkytart

“That’s nice but the new PEW poll is not good.”

Wasn’t it D+7? I say this election is more like 2010, R+1.

Our side is clearly energized, our opponents muted...


9 posted on 11/04/2012 1:55:49 PM PST by Nabber
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To: snarkytart
That’s nice but the new PEW poll is not good.

PEW Poll?


10 posted on 11/04/2012 1:57:37 PM PST by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: snarkytart
Odd how all these experts forget the obvious.

In any election season the last week of the election the undecided and the indies take one last look at the candidate they are leaning against. So in the last week you see a tightening of the polls as they look back over their shoulder one last time. I suspect the polls tomorrow and Tuesday will show movement to Romney as his support with the Independent and undecided voters firms up.

11 posted on 11/04/2012 1:58:59 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: randita
...for a time highlighted the president, replete in bomber jacket, as presidential...

patent BS. He may "look presidential" to people like Ronny Milsap and Stevie Wonder, but not to the rest of us.

12 posted on 11/04/2012 1:59:48 PM PST by GoldenPup (Comrade "O" has got to GO!!)
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To: snarkytart

That PEW poll was D +6 and Female +8. So, 1) Do you *really* think the Dem turnout will be anywhere near +6? And 2) Are you a betting man?


13 posted on 11/04/2012 2:03:55 PM PST by kevao (Hey, Obama: The 1930s called, they want their economic policy back.)
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To: randita

14 posted on 11/04/2012 2:05:32 PM PST by carriage_hill ("0bummer's a towering figure" - even a Garden Gnome casts a long shadow at sunset.)
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To: randita

Romney needs one more surge.

He is right on the cusp of taking this, but I think he needs one final push to get him over the hump. Maybe the natural tendency of undecideds to break for the challenger will be enough to do the trick.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 2:06:36 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: snarkytart

PEW massively oversampled Dems

http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/2/

Dems 1557
GOP 1343
Indy 926

Not a rational sample.


16 posted on 11/04/2012 2:07:26 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: GoldenPup
.. to people like Ronny Milsap and Stevie Wonder


< 32oz snort >

17 posted on 11/04/2012 2:07:43 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
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To: snarkytart

Have you heard about the Redskin rule? When the Redskins win a game right before the election, the incumbent wins. When the Redskins lose a game right before the election the challenger wins. The Redskins lost today. The Redskin rule has only been wrong once, in 2004. Think positive.


18 posted on 11/04/2012 2:09:01 PM PST by forgotten man (forgotten man)
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To: MNJohnnie

Anyone who thinks it’s there’s going to be a huge Democrat turnout hasn’t looked at the early voting numbers, or isn’t paying attention to the enthusiasm gap lurking in all the polls.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 2:10:33 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: MNJohnnie

41% Dem? And even with that ridiculous sample they’re basically tied?

This is gonna be a blowout.


20 posted on 11/04/2012 2:14:17 PM PST by Personal Responsibility (In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act - Orwell)
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To: TomGuy
Obama has been negative, mean, nasty, vicious, thuggish, condescending, angry since the 2nd debate. It shows and many do not like it.

You are so right. Yet a newspaper like the Wisconsin State Journal, even as they announce they are flipping to endorse Romney, can say things about Obama like "Obama is the more likeable candidate and inspiring speaker. ". I don't get that at all. I find him personally repulsive and disgusting to listen to, especially compared to Mitt Romney. This is just plain weird, even Romney can say things like Obama is a "likeable" guy. Obama and his wife are not likeable at all, in my opinion. They have rotten, negative attitudes to me and are not likeable at all.

21 posted on 11/04/2012 2:17:32 PM PST by Reddon
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To: goldstategop

True Pew does over sample dems, and Ras is even sampling dems +4 this week. The only thing that gets me a little wobbly is off year elections like 2010 are not the same as general elections. The party out of power always puts up better numbers especially considering 2010 there was still time to stop Obamacare and the unemployment number was even worse than now. That motivated republicans to come out +1.
Not sure it’s gonna happen on Tuesday but I don’t think it’ll be 2008 for Obama either

I’m at peace with whatever happens because, all we can do is vote, donate, volunteer for our side. Once that’s all over and people vote it’s not up to us anymore.


22 posted on 11/04/2012 2:41:50 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart
It not only the +6 Dem sample, they also over sample Reps to reduce the Indy impact in the poll.

They do that because the Indy vote is massively in Romney's favor. Run a rational 37D-34R-29Indy sample and you would get a seriously different result more favorable to Romney

23 posted on 11/04/2012 2:46:20 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: snarkytart

yeah, not happy about Pew either. They are not as easily dismissed as other polls. BUT, most of this seems to be a last minute Sandy bump. And they stopped polling yesterday. Bumps come, bumps go. Let’s see what happens on Election Day.


24 posted on 11/04/2012 2:49:02 PM PST by Arthurio
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To: randita

25 posted on 11/04/2012 3:03:24 PM PST by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: WashingtonSource
the funniest part of this all is watching the DUmmies stroke each other with +6D and +8D polls that show obama leading by 1-2 points... hahaha.

No doubt this is getting more exciting by the day. I really want to wake up Wed morning reading about a Romney landslide and a senate republican majority... I'll call in sick just so I can troll for libs all day! Maybe gun sales will drop off and I can finally get my KSG, damnit!

...anyway, I'm backing up 2 steps now before I get all ahead of myself.

26 posted on 11/04/2012 3:10:17 PM PST by FunkyZero (... I've got a Grand Piano to prop up my mortal remains)
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To: mplsconservative

Bingo..

People who react to polls that are so easily disproved, with ridiculous D+6 and up samples, really tick me off..Why bother coming on FR? If I wanted to hear a false narrative I would watch MSNBC... Or even Fox News.(FNC is getting pretty bad with their “too close to call” BS)... Had to turn their asses off finally.

FR is for people seeking truth, not the leftist driven, almost DEMONIC propaganda of the enemy. Dont come on here with namby-pamby hand wringing.


27 posted on 11/04/2012 3:16:44 PM PST by HailReagan78
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To: HailReagan78

Okay. You’re invited to my election party! :) No more polls, except the one on November 6th, the one that counts.

We’ll have a beer cheese fondue with crunchy baguette, scallops wrapped in bacon, Szechuan green beans and a Caesar salad, just to pretend we’re healthy. Not to mention, lots of adult beverages.

Either way, I believe in Divine Providence. The pollsters are the same as the MSM in my book.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 3:48:12 PM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: dancusa

Nice!


29 posted on 11/04/2012 3:59:18 PM PST by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: mplsconservative

Szechuan green beans?
I’m I invited, too?


30 posted on 11/04/2012 4:14:00 PM PST by RCFlyer
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To: RCFlyer

Ah, another fan of the beans! No more fresh ones off the vine, but store bought. Still yummy though so c’mon down!


31 posted on 11/04/2012 4:28:11 PM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: mplsconservative

Sounds good to me!


32 posted on 11/05/2012 2:28:09 AM PST by HailReagan78
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To: mplsconservative

You had me at Bacon :)


33 posted on 11/05/2012 2:46:55 AM PST by Tony in Hawaii (Catch a wave and youre sittin' on top of the world...)
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