Posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:54 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
First one comment about a national bellwether county to tell us which way the election is going early in the nite. Indiana polls close at 7:00 est. Vigo county (terre haute) has not missed a national winner since 1956 and has been within 3% of the popular national vote every election from 1960 onwards up until 2008. It overestimated BO’s number by 4.4% in 08 giving him 57.3% when he received 52.9 nationally.
I ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO FOLLOW VIGO SO WE WILL KNOW HOW THINGS SHAPE UP EARLY.
Now for OH, I still go to my ohio bellwethers. Wood, Tuscarawas, clark, stark and Hamilton. All of these counties except for hamilton we are overperforming anywhere from 8 to 29%.
Hamilton is interesting because an astonishing 63% of early/ab voters are UAF. I think in Hamilton, these are mostly conservatives. As opposed to Franklin, I think a large portion of the UAF are libs. But even in franklin, we are overperforming 08 by 4%. And 36,000 fewer early voters in franklin compared to 08. Most of the other counties have long passed their 08 totals.
Glenn Beck said recently that a lot of dims, once they get inside the voting booth, will actually vote for Romney.
Awesome tip Ravi! Will do!
Everyone should bookmark this post
Great analysis on the “missing” Dems. LS and I were having this chat a couple of days ago. Lots of Democrats are making the (fake) point that Independents are really Democrats in OH as this Democrat primary was not contested
This has been proven false by multiple people
Poll ping in case I missed it.
For reference.
Don’t forget that a disproportionate # of “Unaffiliated” voters in Franklin and Athens are college students who won’t be around this cycle. Not the case in Hamilton.
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