Skip to comments.The MSM is Wrong about Ohio Early Voting - the Real Numbers from the Ohio SOS
Posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:54 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
1. Here are the 2008 early vote totals from the early voting project at George Mason
2. Download the Excel Spreadsheet on Early Voting from OH SOS
3. You will notice that OH early voting is just like VA early voting. Cuyahoga and Summit are 2 of the top 4 Democratic counties. Cuyahoga is at 95% of 2008 totals and Summit just about the same at 100% of 2008 totals. On average across the state, about a 2-3% decline in Democratic counties.
4. But look at the Republican counties. They are little by themselves but they add up. Union County had 3324 total EV in 2008 and has 7500 in now. Tuscarawas had 9339 in 2008 and 16000 now. Muskingum had 6629 in 2008 but 11900 now. You can find similar results in EVERY single Republican stronghold.
Cuyahoga in 2008 was almost the same as 2004. The difference in Ohio from 2008 to 2012 was the massive dropoff in support for McCain from Republican and swing counties. The (R) enthusiasm is not only back, but it is stronger than ever before.
Why more people aren't doing this kind of analysis is beyond me. Just look at the EV totals released by the states and you can see what is happening.
If I'm reading the numbers wrong, please tell me. But it seems that the OH and VA numbers by county tell the tale -- small decreases in the Democratic areas but huge increases in Republican areas.
Also missing in the MSM reporting is how many dems who voted early voted for Romney....
My guess is lots and lots did...
Huge increases in early voting only matter if it affects the final vote tally. That’s the question: would these early voters NOT have voted on election day?
I’m certain Romney is going to win big, but I could care less about who decides to get in line first to vote.
Very good analysis. Another would be to take the counties won by kerry/obama and compare to bush/mccain counties. Swing counties would be bush/obama counties. Their increase may indicate increased republican enthusiasm not necessarily democratic.
Another point to keep in mind. That’s what wasserman has been doing in VA for cook political.
Time for people to ‘buck up’ and stay strong!!!
Missing from the analysis will be the fact that, there are a lot of democrats with a lot of time on their hands, and so, have a lot more free time to go vote, while, republicans are busy earning a living, and won’t have as much time to head to the early election sites.
Exactly right. How many of the Dem early voters are Reagan Democrats again or Operation Chaos holdovers.
Similar in dynamic in Nevada.
That’s even before people get to the polls Tuesday.
Nothing indicates O’s Campaign is in good shape.
The polls only conceal the state of its collapse. People have no clue as to what’s going on.
Bill Cunningham on Hannity 11/2/2012 (Romney will win Ohio and Wisconsin)
Last night Michael Barone on "Huckabee" said that the increased 2012 turnout in small Republican counties would allow Romney to win Ohio.
Yes, I have looked at the Nevada numbers very closely. Nevada is looking good but it is much tougher because we have so much farther to go there. Washoe County is looking just like 2004 so far, but Romney needs independents to win. Nevada will go right down to the wire.
Bottom line - any state that Obama won by 10% or less in 2008 is either trending Romney or is essentially tied.
There is no early voting in PA, and where I live there isn't a Romney ground game. I live in a Republican county, that went for McCain in 2008, but a lot of Republicans voted for Obama and some stayed home. From what I have observed, the lost Republican vote is coming home. County wide, this probably amounts to 5 to 6 thousand votes going to Romney that McCain didn't get in 2008. If that repeats itself for other 60 Republican counties in PA, Romney is going to win. (BTW, PA is a red state on the county level. There are only 7 or so really Democratic counties in the state)
Yesterday both candidates had rallies in Ohio. Obama drew 2,800 — Romney 30,000 !
That’s voter enthusiasm.
Stevie Wonder just had an Ohio concert for Obama that only drew 200 people because it was poorly publicized—that’s campaign malpractice by ‘’Bronco Bamas” team.
FWIW. Here’s a local article (Portage co. OH) which went to Obama in 08 (54-46). I believe the Repub uptick is due to the hard work of our local Teaparty group. We are very organized and relentless. All polling stations will have members present on election day from open to close. I’m scheduled for the morning, will check in and give updates. My instincts are telling me Portage is going to Romney.
GOP surge surpasses Dems on Portage voter rolls
By Mike Sever | staff writer/Record Courier
Portage Countys majority political organization is now the Republican Party although far more voters remain unaffiliated with eithe GOP or the Democrats, according to voter registration statistics from the county board of elections.
As of Monday, Oct. 22, registration totaled 108,287 voters, a 4,540 increase from the spring primary election.
That total was split among 14,206 registered Republicans and 9,973 Democrats. Thats a 5,864 voter increase for the GOP and a 1,612 drop for Democrats from the primary.
The number of voters who declared no party affiliation was 84,043, a minimal 223 registration increase from the primary.
The numbers will change by Election Day, according to Faith Lyon, director of the Portage County Board of Elections. The local board is still processing registration info it receives from the Secretary of State in Columbus. Workers also are verifying the status of people who filed changes of address and making sure voters do not have duplicate registrations, Lyon said.
I came to this thread soecifically to post exactly what you said. They keep touting the early dem voting, but I’ll bet that at least a third of them are for Romney.
Yeah; as usual, the Dem's in Cuyahoga have voted early, and MANY will vote again at the Polls on Tuesday, for The Messiah....count on it.
Let me spell out the (obvious) case why Romney will trounce Obama in Ohio:
1) Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5%. McCain was a terrible, under-funded candidate; Obama was fresh, unknown, and NOT Bush. Four years later, Obama is a known quantity with a bad economic record and a ton of baggage. He obviously is in worse political shape than 2008.
2) Every state that borders Ohio is either overwhelmingly for Romney/Ryan, or is obviously moving in that direction. West Va. dems voted 43% for a FELON in the dem primary in May. Kentucky dems voted 41% “uncommitted” instead of for Obama. Obama won Indiana by a point in 2008; he will lose by 15 to 20 points this year. And now credible polls are showing that Romney is within strking distance in Pa. and Mich. Does anyone reasonably believe that the Ohio border somehow magically seals off the discontent for Obama in bordering states? I don’t think so.
3) The biggest myth about Obama’s 2008 win was that there was this massive turnout for dems. Not so. In fact, Obama rec’d far less votes than John Kerry. There was a precipitous drop-off of working-class white dems in Ohio, and an even bigger drop-off of Republicans and evangelicals. Does anyone reasonably expect that blue collar white dems are going to come roaring out for Obama in 2012. Hell no. He never had these John Kerry-democrats, and he never will get them. Obama’s big problem is that blacks, students, young people, etc. won’t post, which is what we are seeing in the early vote numbers.
4) Obama is weaker with every demographic. He will lose a small percentage of jewish votes around Cleveland and Cincinnat; his gay marriage stance will cost him a small sliver of black votes; conservative Catholics in Southern Ohio are ticked off about the contraception mandate. Please, someone out there name me one demographic group that Obama is doing better with in 2012? White, female reporters who work for MSNBC?
5) Ohio is a Republican state. Republican candidates in Ohio always outperform the national polls by 2 to 3 percent.
6) I’m from Cincinnati, but in I live in the DC suburbs. Obama is playing non-stop abortion and gay rights ads on Northern Virginia radio. His campaign obviously sees that turnout among the young dingbats is dicey. Imagine what we would be thinking if Romney were running pro-life and pro-gun ads in the week before the election.
So, please, everyone stop worrying about Ohio. Just get out and vote.
Here’s the myth that Axelrod propagated - Obama ground game and EV won Ohio in 2008 - that is wrong. The Cuyahoga numbers from 2008 were almost identical to 2004. It was, in fact, John Kerry that got the Cuyahoga numbers way up (in his case from 2000), not Obama. All Obama / Axelrod did was maintain the Kerry numbers and siphon off (R) support in (R) counties and swing counties like Wood.
I saw pix on the internet tubes, (can’t remember where), that had Romney at a rally with a lot of attendees wearing “Democrats for Romney” T shirts. I don’t imagine there is a single Republican for Obama out there now.
But I can run an analysis, and did so on absentees only (not early votes). I can't post because of formatting. If someone can post a Word document, I'm happy to send you what SoftwareEngineer put some of it in Excel, but only did 10, and this does not include Cuyahoga or Franklin).
Conclusions of my mini-study:
*I looked at the first 27 OH counties alphabetically, which includes Franklin, Clark, and Cuyahoga.
*The hypothesis is that if you automatically lose your party ID because you don't vote in a primary, then a decline of 30,000 Ds from 2008 should be offset by an increase of 30,000 Is in 2012. Didn't happen, except in two cases, Adams and Columbiana. There, large D decreases were matched with large I increases. But in Champaign, Ds lost 71% from 08, but Is only rose 11%. Cuyahoga lost .08% but Is only increased .04%. (Rs gained 30%)
*Franklin Ds fell 30%, but Is fell as well, only at -17%.
In short, it's very hard to find a "swap out" explanation for the D declines in OH.
” Nevada will go right down to the wire.”
But the bottom line is that if things go right in Pennsylvania, and Ohio, Nevada isn’t going to matter! When they report the wins in the East and Midwest, the RAT union scum in Las Vegas will have time to stay home ant take another hit on their bongs, or go out to the nearest Mexican restaurant and drink themselves under the table on cheap Margaritas.
Definitely will a lot more Democrats voting for Romney than Republicans voting for Obama.
While I think 1/3 of the Dem vote for Romney is too high — there are Dems voting for Romney. Those that listened to what Clint Eastwood really said and that is it is OK to NOT vote for Obama this time — you may have last time but he has failed and a change to Romney is OK.
Agweed, Arec, Ras Veags trury a ronerey prace f’wepubricans.
In regards to this post:
I will happily email anyone the Excel sheet I created for LS
It has all the formulas done. All you need to do is plug in raw data for BOTH 2008 and 2012 PER COUNTY in a D/R/I format and you can the difference immediately that the D dropff does NOT match the I uptick. Infact there was a demonstrable R uptick in the first 10 counties that LS sent
I’m a little disappointed for Stevie.
Here’s what I have not been able to figure out for some time — how can Romney be achieving a 9% swing in the RCP poll averages in state after state, but only a 1.7% swing in Ohio? That is not statistically possible.
Let’s look at the movements for Romney by % from 2008 final numbers to current 2012 RCP poll averages:
IN + 12
NJ + 3.8
NM + 5.1
OR + 10
NV + 10
IA + 7
MI + 13
NH + 8
Average: 8.933% shift to Romney
now let’s get to the real battleground states:
Are you kidding me? These #’s are ridiculous. You cannot have an average shift of 9% nationally and 4.225% in the key states. And the OH #’s are really and truly bizarre.
OH was virtually THE most resistant state to Obama in 2008. There was a 10 point swing nationally from 2004 to 2008 (51 / 48) to (46 / 53) but only a 6.5 point swing in Ohio. But even in 2008, there was a 65% correlative move from the national vote to the Ohio vote. Therefore, if there is an average 9% shift nationally from 2008 to 2012 (that brings us virtually back to 2004 #’s), it is almost inconceivable, without obvious fraud, for Romney to have a 9% swing nationally and less than a 50% correlative swing in Ohio (i.e., a 4.5% swing). Even using an extraordinarily low, and virtually unprecedented low correlation, Obama would get 49.25% in OH and Romney would get 49.4% in OH.
If you assume a 65% correlation going the other way, which, again, is very low on average (but not unprecedented), Romney wins Ohio by 1.4%, or 49.9% to 48.5%, which is about 120,000 votes.
We know from Barone that obama is having to get his normal reliable Tuesday voters to vote early to try and create an air of some semblance of momentum somewhere to spin. Some of that early vote will be normal Tuesday voters not voting... so the turnout on Tuesday for the dims will be less than predicted. Barone is correct.
colotomy bowel (colon powell).
colostomy bowel (colon powell).
Ds down 262,000. Zero carried OH by less than that. He is completely charred.
You are on the money when it comes to your analysis. I have been working with LS on analyzing some real-time early voting data.
While my analysis is by no means fully complete, early returns seem to show a huge uptick in Republican enthusiasm. Also, I can conclusively prove that the “Independents” in OH are not de-registered Democrats (a favorite talking point of Democrats)
My bottom line is that the Governor will win OH, but with a lower margin than his overall national victory. I say this based on the fact that the President has invested a lot of money in the GOTV effort in OHIO (and not very much in PA ;-))
Seems the pollsters are keeping the swing states closer than the other Liberal states which show erosion for OZero..... for me the election will be won on turn out one county at a time..... McCain was just not the mojo guy nor was he going to win against the ANTI BUSH mantra played by the media. Mitt has handled the MSM as well as one could hope since it is 100% against him daily. It is now up to all of us to do our duty and SAVE THIS LOVELY NATION!
You also have the Team Romney theory that Team Obama is taking reliable voters who would normally vote on elections day, and getting them to early vote...in a way it is similar to burning through cash reserve s to give an appearance.
Romney on the other hand, is trying to get unreliable voters to vote early, and count on the hardcores to show up on Election day. IF that is all true, then Obama probably has the biggest operation of this in Ohio, as does Romney...which could account for some of that appearance different.
In other words, their might be a Romney tidal wave on Election day, and many of those Obama voters ALREADY VOTED.
This of course, puts aside the issue of voting 4 times etc etc.
Well, there is one...
McCain trounced Obama on election day in 2008, it was just that it couldn’t overcome Obama’s advantage from the early voting.
If anything Romney will rout Obama even worse, and if Obama’s early voting advantage is significantly down from 2008, I don’t see how Obama pulls it out.
I dont imagine there is a single Republican for Obama out there now.
Even John McCain isn’t backing Obama this time, and he was Obama’s biggest supporter in 2008!
What about his fat daughter? Between her and Christie, I think Obama has the fat Republican vote sewn up.
I also think that not all of the “Democrats” will be voting for Obama, wheras I think virtually all of the “Republicans” will be voting for Romney (with a small contengent of Ron Paul/libertarian nuttos voting for Gary Johnson)!~
There is another factor in Romney’s favor in states like Ohio - it is the SECRET BALLOT... A fair number of people who are surrounded my die hard Democrats (neighbors, family, friends and coworkers) just do not want to argue, be ridiculed or be castigated by others for doing something common sense like vote AGAINST obama. The Secret Ballot means that others may wonder or even be rude and ask - but one does not have to tell... In this Cable/Satellite TV News, Talk Radio and Internet era... it is neigh on impossible not to be exposed to the truth... Many will never debate others, put up a sign or slap on a bumper sticker... but they vote their conscience in private - Silent Independents.
Yep Obama is using his Election Day voters to prop up early voting...I guess to maintain some kind of mirage of competitiveness.
Yeah, I always said that when McCain went into the booth, he probably voted for Obama!
County 2008 2012 % CO Decline /Inc D R I D R I Adams 843 1321 410 410 (-48%) 814 (-38%) 533 (+23) -40% Allen Data Not Avail 1049 1946 2215 -15% Ashland Data Not Avail 1241 3258 4489 -27% Ashtabula 1789 1940 5224 2443 (+26%) 2273 (+14%) 5668 (+7%) +13% Athens 4393 1054 5447 2298 (-47%) 935 (-11%) 4149 (-.05%) -20% Auglaize 437 1502 2019 338 (-22%) 1251 (-16%) 1589 (-.37%) -25% Belmont Data Not Avail 5335 2397 5306 -.08% Brown 605 1016 2230 627 (+.03%) 1127 (+.09%) 1754 (+5%) +.01% Butler Data Not Avail 1979 6883 14776 -45% Carrol 620 1061 1949 601 (-.03%) 867 (-23%) 1622 (-16%) -14% Champaign 1653 1820 1636 466 (-71%) 1381 (-24%) 1847 (+11%) -23% Clark 7403 3803 6831 3055 (-48%) 4137 (+.08) 9862 (+30%) -.05% Clermont Data Not Avail 1073 7084 14,587 -14% Clinton 1366 2039 2044 396 (-71%) 1659 (-18%) 2103 (+.02%) -23% Columbiana 2678 1912 3249 1734 (-28%) 2258 (+15%) 5342(+39) +16% Coshocton 457 1244 3943 471 (+.02%) 1378 (+.09%) 2565 (-34%) -.07% Crawford 2018 1965 1808 873 (-57%) 1550 (-21%) 2618 (+30%) -12%) Cuyahoga 151,296 36,232 96,224 138,493(-.08%) 52,039 (+30%) 84,669 (-.04%) -.03% Darke 743 966 2833 619 (-16%) 1968(+50%) 2587(-.08%) -.08% Defiance 620 1196 2701 585(-.05%) 1133(-.05%) 3754 (.+27%) -12% Delaware No Data Available 2799 8754 17,041 -16% Erie 5720 2262 6253 3407(-40%) 2458(+.07) 6048(-.02%) -16% Fairfield No Data Available 5475 7984 7612 -20% Fayette 880 946 1366 242(-72%) 488(-.48) 1774(+22%) -21% Franklin 48,811 40,334 180,656 33,690(-30%) 36,218(-10%) 149,626(-17%) -18% Fulton 552 1653 3150 443(-19%) 1413(-14%) 2255(-28%) -23% Gallia (no data at all) Geauga 1378 3840 8721 1333(-.03%) 3946(+.02%) 8388(-.04%) -.01%
If Cuyahoga and Summit are close to 2008 numbers, what does that say to those who told us that Democratic enthusiasm isn’t as strong in 2012 as it was in 2008?
The Rats have thousands of SEIU, NEA union members, ACLU types, NARAL, Planned Parenthood, LGBT and Rainbow Coalition, high school and college kids and by one report even illegals impressed into their ground game with fleet loads of buses taking even the homeless and mentally retarded to the polls. Do the Republican have a ground game to match?
You know now the myth of 2008 - that Democratic base turnout won the election - it didn’t. Kerry maxed out the base and Obama simply maintained it. Obama won because Republicans were unenthusiastic and/or crossed over.
Republicans have come home. That’s why this election will be like 2004.
That is the type of information Barone uses in his predictions. The shifting local demographics.