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The MSM is Wrong about Ohio Early Voting - the Real Numbers from the Ohio SOS
Arec Barrwin ^ | November 3, 2012 | Ohio Secretary of State

Posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:54 AM PST by Arec Barrwin

1. Here are the 2008 early vote totals from the early voting project at George Mason

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

2. Download the Excel Spreadsheet on Early Voting from OH SOS

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/Upload/news/2012/Early_Voting_Report_2012-11-02.xls

3. You will notice that OH early voting is just like VA early voting. Cuyahoga and Summit are 2 of the top 4 Democratic counties. Cuyahoga is at 95% of 2008 totals and Summit just about the same at 100% of 2008 totals. On average across the state, about a 2-3% decline in Democratic counties.

4. But look at the Republican counties. They are little by themselves but they add up. Union County had 3324 total EV in 2008 and has 7500 in now. Tuscarawas had 9339 in 2008 and 16000 now. Muskingum had 6629 in 2008 but 11900 now. You can find similar results in EVERY single Republican stronghold.

Cuyahoga in 2008 was almost the same as 2004. The difference in Ohio from 2008 to 2012 was the massive dropoff in support for McCain from Republican and swing counties. The (R) enthusiasm is not only back, but it is stronger than ever before.

Why more people aren't doing this kind of analysis is beyond me. Just look at the EV totals released by the states and you can see what is happening.

If I'm reading the numbers wrong, please tell me. But it seems that the OH and VA numbers by county tell the tale -- small decreases in the Democratic areas but huge increases in Republican areas.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: obama; ohio; romney
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1 posted on 11/04/2012 7:11:01 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
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To: Arec Barrwin

Also missing in the MSM reporting is how many dems who voted early voted for Romney....

My guess is lots and lots did...


2 posted on 11/04/2012 7:16:11 AM PST by Popman (November 7th...will be a good day for America..)
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To: Arec Barrwin

Huge increases in early voting only matter if it affects the final vote tally. That’s the question: would these early voters NOT have voted on election day?

I’m certain Romney is going to win big, but I could care less about who decides to get in line first to vote.


3 posted on 11/04/2012 7:17:16 AM PST by bolobaby
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To: Arec Barrwin

Very good analysis. Another would be to take the counties won by kerry/obama and compare to bush/mccain counties. Swing counties would be bush/obama counties. Their increase may indicate increased republican enthusiasm not necessarily democratic.

Another point to keep in mind. That’s what wasserman has been doing in VA for cook political.


4 posted on 11/04/2012 7:17:16 AM PST by Ravi
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To: Arec Barrwin; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Time for people to ‘buck up’ and stay strong!!!


5 posted on 11/04/2012 7:18:05 AM PST by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Arec Barrwin

Missing from the analysis will be the fact that, there are a lot of democrats with a lot of time on their hands, and so, have a lot more free time to go vote, while, republicans are busy earning a living, and won’t have as much time to head to the early election sites.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 7:20:38 AM PST by adorno
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To: Popman

Exactly right. How many of the Dem early voters are Reagan Democrats again or Operation Chaos holdovers.


7 posted on 11/04/2012 7:21:32 AM PST by ScottinSacto (Liberals support abortion on demand and gay marriage....sounds like a great strategic plan!)
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To: Arec Barrwin

Similar in dynamic in Nevada.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 7:24:22 AM PST by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: Arec Barrwin

That’s even before people get to the polls Tuesday.

Nothing indicates O’s Campaign is in good shape.

The polls only conceal the state of its collapse. People have no clue as to what’s going on.


9 posted on 11/04/2012 7:24:31 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arec Barrwin

Bill Cunningham on Hannity 11/2/2012 (Romney will win Ohio and Wisconsin)

http://barracudabrigade.blogspot.com/2012/11/obamas-katrina-bill-cunningham-with.html


10 posted on 11/04/2012 7:30:16 AM PST by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
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To: Arec Barrwin
4. But look at the Republican counties. They are little by themselves but they add up.

Last night Michael Barone on "Huckabee" said that the increased 2012 turnout in small Republican counties would allow Romney to win Ohio.

11 posted on 11/04/2012 7:31:37 AM PST by matt1234 (As Obama sowed in the Arab Spring, so he is reaping in the Arab Fall.)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Yes, I have looked at the Nevada numbers very closely. Nevada is looking good but it is much tougher because we have so much farther to go there. Washoe County is looking just like 2004 so far, but Romney needs independents to win. Nevada will go right down to the wire.

Bottom line - any state that Obama won by 10% or less in 2008 is either trending Romney or is essentially tied.


12 posted on 11/04/2012 7:32:48 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
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To: Arec Barrwin
I wonder if the gains in Republican counties is the result of the Romney ground game, or is it simply people are fed up and are voting.

There is no early voting in PA, and where I live there isn't a Romney ground game. I live in a Republican county, that went for McCain in 2008, but a lot of Republicans voted for Obama and some stayed home. From what I have observed, the lost Republican vote is coming home. County wide, this probably amounts to 5 to 6 thousand votes going to Romney that McCain didn't get in 2008. If that repeats itself for other 60 Republican counties in PA, Romney is going to win. (BTW, PA is a red state on the county level. There are only 7 or so really Democratic counties in the state)

13 posted on 11/04/2012 7:38:30 AM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
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To: goldstategop

Yesterday both candidates had rallies in Ohio. Obama drew 2,800 — Romney 30,000 !

That’s voter enthusiasm.

Stevie Wonder just had an Ohio concert for Obama that only drew 200 people because it was poorly publicized—that’s campaign malpractice by ‘’Bronco Bamas” team.


14 posted on 11/04/2012 7:45:14 AM PST by DJtex
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To: Arec Barrwin

FWIW. Here’s a local article (Portage co. OH) which went to Obama in 08 (54-46). I believe the Repub uptick is due to the hard work of our local Teaparty group. We are very organized and relentless. All polling stations will have members present on election day from open to close. I’m scheduled for the morning, will check in and give updates. My instincts are telling me Portage is going to Romney.

GOP surge surpasses Dems on Portage voter rolls
By Mike Sever | staff writer/Record Courier

Portage County’s majority political organization is now the Republican Party although far more voters remain unaffiliated with eithe GOP or the Democrats, according to voter registration statistics from the county board of elections.

As of Monday, Oct. 22, registration totaled 108,287 voters, a 4,540 increase from the spring primary election.

That total was split among 14,206 registered Republicans and 9,973 Democrats. That’s a 5,864 voter increase for the GOP and a 1,612 drop for Democrats from the primary.

The number of voters who declared no party affiliation was 84,043, a minimal 223 registration increase from the primary.

The numbers will change by Election Day, according to Faith Lyon, director of the Portage County Board of Elections. The local board is still processing registration info it receives from the Secretary of State in Columbus. Workers also are verifying the status of people who filed changes of address and making sure voters do not have duplicate registrations, Lyon said.
http://www.recordpub.com/news/article/5225009


15 posted on 11/04/2012 7:46:16 AM PST by Gorilla44
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To: Popman

I came to this thread soecifically to post exactly what you said. They keep touting the early dem voting, but I’ll bet that at least a third of them are for Romney.


16 posted on 11/04/2012 7:47:39 AM PST by MestaMachine (obama kills and none dare call it treason)
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To: Arec Barrwin
Cuyahoga is at 95% of 2008 totals"

Yeah; as usual, the Dem's in Cuyahoga have voted early, and MANY will vote again at the Polls on Tuesday, for The Messiah....count on it.

17 posted on 11/04/2012 7:50:15 AM PST by traditional1 (Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
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To: Arec Barrwin

Let me spell out the (obvious) case why Romney will trounce Obama in Ohio:
1) Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 4.5%. McCain was a terrible, under-funded candidate; Obama was fresh, unknown, and NOT Bush. Four years later, Obama is a known quantity with a bad economic record and a ton of baggage. He obviously is in worse political shape than 2008.
2) Every state that borders Ohio is either overwhelmingly for Romney/Ryan, or is obviously moving in that direction. West Va. dems voted 43% for a FELON in the dem primary in May. Kentucky dems voted 41% “uncommitted” instead of for Obama. Obama won Indiana by a point in 2008; he will lose by 15 to 20 points this year. And now credible polls are showing that Romney is within strking distance in Pa. and Mich. Does anyone reasonably believe that the Ohio border somehow magically seals off the discontent for Obama in bordering states? I don’t think so.
3) The biggest myth about Obama’s 2008 win was that there was this massive turnout for dems. Not so. In fact, Obama rec’d far less votes than John Kerry. There was a precipitous drop-off of working-class white dems in Ohio, and an even bigger drop-off of Republicans and evangelicals. Does anyone reasonably expect that blue collar white dems are going to come roaring out for Obama in 2012. Hell no. He never had these John Kerry-democrats, and he never will get them. Obama’s big problem is that blacks, students, young people, etc. won’t post, which is what we are seeing in the early vote numbers.
4) Obama is weaker with every demographic. He will lose a small percentage of jewish votes around Cleveland and Cincinnat; his gay marriage stance will cost him a small sliver of black votes; conservative Catholics in Southern Ohio are ticked off about the contraception mandate. Please, someone out there name me one demographic group that Obama is doing better with in 2012? White, female reporters who work for MSNBC?
5) Ohio is a Republican state. Republican candidates in Ohio always outperform the national polls by 2 to 3 percent.
6) I’m from Cincinnati, but in I live in the DC suburbs. Obama is playing non-stop abortion and gay rights ads on Northern Virginia radio. His campaign obviously sees that turnout among the young dingbats is dicey. Imagine what we would be thinking if Romney were running pro-life and pro-gun ads in the week before the election.

So, please, everyone stop worrying about Ohio. Just get out and vote.


18 posted on 11/04/2012 7:51:00 AM PST by bort
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To: traditional1

Here’s the myth that Axelrod propagated - Obama ground game and EV won Ohio in 2008 - that is wrong. The Cuyahoga numbers from 2008 were almost identical to 2004. It was, in fact, John Kerry that got the Cuyahoga numbers way up (in his case from 2000), not Obama. All Obama / Axelrod did was maintain the Kerry numbers and siphon off (R) support in (R) counties and swing counties like Wood.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 7:54:36 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
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To: Popman

I saw pix on the internet tubes, (can’t remember where), that had Romney at a rally with a lot of attendees wearing “Democrats for Romney” T shirts. I don’t imagine there is a single Republican for Obama out there now.


20 posted on 11/04/2012 7:58:20 AM PST by sportutegrl (Remember the Reagan Democrats?)
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To: Arec Barrwin; Ravi; SoftwareEngineer
Have been having a running argument with long-time county chairman and GOP insider based in Columbus who claims that new OH law says that if you did not vote in 2012 primary, you lost your D/R designation and became "unaffiliated." Ohio SoS office said the opposite, that you retain for six years, but this fellow replied "Did you talk to Husted? I did." Well, no. with all my "prestige" (lol) I can't just get the SoS on the line.

But I can run an analysis, and did so on absentees only (not early votes). I can't post because of formatting. If someone can post a Word document, I'm happy to send you what SoftwareEngineer put some of it in Excel, but only did 10, and this does not include Cuyahoga or Franklin).

Conclusions of my mini-study:

*I looked at the first 27 OH counties alphabetically, which includes Franklin, Clark, and Cuyahoga.

*The hypothesis is that if you automatically lose your party ID because you don't vote in a primary, then a decline of 30,000 Ds from 2008 should be offset by an increase of 30,000 Is in 2012. Didn't happen, except in two cases, Adams and Columbiana. There, large D decreases were matched with large I increases. But in Champaign, Ds lost 71% from 08, but Is only rose 11%. Cuyahoga lost .08% but Is only increased .04%. (Rs gained 30%)

*Franklin Ds fell 30%, but Is fell as well, only at -17%.

In short, it's very hard to find a "swap out" explanation for the D declines in OH.

21 posted on 11/04/2012 7:58:20 AM PST by LS
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To: Arec Barrwin

” Nevada will go right down to the wire.”

But the bottom line is that if things go right in Pennsylvania, and Ohio, Nevada isn’t going to matter! When they report the wins in the East and Midwest, the RAT union scum in Las Vegas will have time to stay home ant take another hit on their bongs, or go out to the nearest Mexican restaurant and drink themselves under the table on cheap Margaritas.


22 posted on 11/04/2012 7:58:45 AM PST by vette6387
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To: Popman
Also missing in the MSM reporting is how many dems who voted early voted for Romney....

Definitely will a lot more Democrats voting for Romney than Republicans voting for Obama.

23 posted on 11/04/2012 7:58:45 AM PST by TruthWillWin (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money.)
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To: MestaMachine

While I think 1/3 of the Dem vote for Romney is too high — there are Dems voting for Romney. Those that listened to what Clint Eastwood really said and that is it is OK to NOT vote for Obama this time — you may have last time but he has failed and a change to Romney is OK.


24 posted on 11/04/2012 8:01:29 AM PST by bunster
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To: Arec Barrwin

Agweed, Arec, Ras Veags trury a ronerey prace f’wepubricans.


25 posted on 11/04/2012 8:03:57 AM PST by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

In regards to this post:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954733/posts#21

I will happily email anyone the Excel sheet I created for LS

It has all the formulas done. All you need to do is plug in raw data for BOTH 2008 and 2012 PER COUNTY in a D/R/I format and you can the difference immediately that the D dropff does NOT match the I uptick. Infact there was a demonstrable R uptick in the first 10 counties that LS sent


26 posted on 11/04/2012 8:04:07 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: DJtex

I’m a little disappointed for Stevie.


27 posted on 11/04/2012 8:15:45 AM PST by rashley (Rashley)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Here’s what I have not been able to figure out for some time — how can Romney be achieving a 9% swing in the RCP poll averages in state after state, but only a 1.7% swing in Ohio? That is not statistically possible.

Let’s look at the movements for Romney by % from 2008 final numbers to current 2012 RCP poll averages:

GA +7
IN + 12
CT +11
NJ + 3.8
NM + 5.1
MO +11
MT +8
OR + 10
MN +5
NV + 10
CO +8
IA + 7
PA +6
WI +9
MI + 13
NH + 8

Average: 8.933% shift to Romney

now let’s get to the real battleground states:

VA +7
NC +4
FL +4.2
OH +1.7

Average: 4.225%

Are you kidding me? These #’s are ridiculous. You cannot have an average shift of 9% nationally and 4.225% in the key states. And the OH #’s are really and truly bizarre.

OH was virtually THE most resistant state to Obama in 2008. There was a 10 point swing nationally from 2004 to 2008 (51 / 48) to (46 / 53) but only a 6.5 point swing in Ohio. But even in 2008, there was a 65% correlative move from the national vote to the Ohio vote. Therefore, if there is an average 9% shift nationally from 2008 to 2012 (that brings us virtually back to 2004 #’s), it is almost inconceivable, without obvious fraud, for Romney to have a 9% swing nationally and less than a 50% correlative swing in Ohio (i.e., a 4.5% swing). Even using an extraordinarily low, and virtually unprecedented low correlation, Obama would get 49.25% in OH and Romney would get 49.4% in OH.

If you assume a 65% correlation going the other way, which, again, is very low on average (but not unprecedented), Romney wins Ohio by 1.4%, or 49.9% to 48.5%, which is about 120,000 votes.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 8:16:35 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
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To: Arec Barrwin
I seen u moobie... you wun funi guy.

We know from Barone that obama is having to get his normal reliable Tuesday voters to vote early to try and create an air of some semblance of momentum somewhere to spin. Some of that early vote will be normal Tuesday voters not voting... so the turnout on Tuesday for the dims will be less than predicted. Barone is correct.

LLS

29 posted on 11/04/2012 8:18:09 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: sportutegrl

colotomy bowel (colon powell).

LLS


30 posted on 11/04/2012 8:21:48 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: sportutegrl

colostomy bowel (colon powell).

LLS


31 posted on 11/04/2012 8:21:52 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Ds down 262,000. Zero carried OH by less than that. He is completely charred.


32 posted on 11/04/2012 8:22:32 AM PST by LS
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sfl


33 posted on 11/04/2012 8:22:59 AM PST by phockthis (http://www.supremelaw.org/fedzone11/index.htm ...)
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To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

Arec,

You are on the money when it comes to your analysis. I have been working with LS on analyzing some real-time early voting data.

While my analysis is by no means fully complete, early returns seem to show a huge uptick in Republican enthusiasm. Also, I can conclusively prove that the “Independents” in OH are not de-registered Democrats (a favorite talking point of Democrats)

My bottom line is that the Governor will win OH, but with a lower margin than his overall national victory. I say this based on the fact that the President has invested a lot of money in the GOTV effort in OHIO (and not very much in PA ;-))


34 posted on 11/04/2012 8:24:43 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Arec Barrwin

Seems the pollsters are keeping the swing states closer than the other Liberal states which show erosion for OZero..... for me the election will be won on turn out one county at a time..... McCain was just not the mojo guy nor was he going to win against the ANTI BUSH mantra played by the media. Mitt has handled the MSM as well as one could hope since it is 100% against him daily. It is now up to all of us to do our duty and SAVE THIS LOVELY NATION!


35 posted on 11/04/2012 8:25:35 AM PST by Republic Rocker
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You also have the Team Romney theory that Team Obama is taking reliable voters who would normally vote on elections day, and getting them to early vote...in a way it is similar to burning through cash reserve s to give an appearance.

Romney on the other hand, is trying to get unreliable voters to vote early, and count on the hardcores to show up on Election day. IF that is all true, then Obama probably has the biggest operation of this in Ohio, as does Romney...which could account for some of that appearance different.

In other words, their might be a Romney tidal wave on Election day, and many of those Obama voters ALREADY VOTED.

This of course, puts aside the issue of voting 4 times etc etc.


36 posted on 11/04/2012 8:35:31 AM PST by Crimson Elephant
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To: sportutegrl
I don’t imagine there is a single Republican for Obama out there now.

Well, there is one...


37 posted on 11/04/2012 8:36:05 AM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Crimson Elephant

McCain trounced Obama on election day in 2008, it was just that it couldn’t overcome Obama’s advantage from the early voting.

If anything Romney will rout Obama even worse, and if Obama’s early voting advantage is significantly down from 2008, I don’t see how Obama pulls it out.


38 posted on 11/04/2012 8:37:15 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: sportutegrl

I don’t imagine there is a single Republican for Obama out there now.


Even John McCain isn’t backing Obama this time, and he was Obama’s biggest supporter in 2008!


39 posted on 11/04/2012 8:38:27 AM PST by Rides_A_Red_Horse (If there is a war on women, the Kennedys are the Spec Ops troops.)
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To: Rides_A_Red_Horse
Even John McCain isn’t backing Obama this time, and he was Obama’s biggest supporter in 2008!

What about his fat daughter? Between her and Christie, I think Obama has the fat Republican vote sewn up.

40 posted on 11/04/2012 8:39:29 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: Arec Barrwin

I also think that not all of the “Democrats” will be voting for Obama, wheras I think virtually all of the “Republicans” will be voting for Romney (with a small contengent of Ron Paul/libertarian nuttos voting for Gary Johnson)!~


41 posted on 11/04/2012 8:40:57 AM PST by JSDude1
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To: Arec Barrwin

There is another factor in Romney’s favor in states like Ohio - it is the SECRET BALLOT... A fair number of people who are surrounded my die hard Democrats (neighbors, family, friends and coworkers) just do not want to argue, be ridiculed or be castigated by others for doing something common sense like vote AGAINST obama. The Secret Ballot means that others may wonder or even be rude and ask - but one does not have to tell... In this Cable/Satellite TV News, Talk Radio and Internet era... it is neigh on impossible not to be exposed to the truth... Many will never debate others, put up a sign or slap on a bumper sticker... but they vote their conscience in private - Silent Independents.


42 posted on 11/04/2012 8:50:03 AM PST by ICCtheWay
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To: dfwgator

Yep Obama is using his Election Day voters to prop up early voting...I guess to maintain some kind of mirage of competitiveness.


43 posted on 11/04/2012 8:55:16 AM PST by Crimson Elephant
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To: LS
LS: Try copying the text of the Word doc, and then pasting it to FR between <pre> </pre> tags
44 posted on 11/04/2012 9:00:43 AM PST by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: Rides_A_Red_Horse

Yeah, I always said that when McCain went into the booth, he probably voted for Obama!


45 posted on 11/04/2012 9:09:37 AM PST by Yaelle
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To: AFPhys
Still a little jumbled, but better. I don't know how to get it better.
County			2008                           2012		          % CO Decline /Inc   

                      D        R      I                      D                R                      I

Adams          843     1321 410	    410 (-48%)  814 (-38%)     533 (+23)           -40%   
   

Allen               Data Not Avail 	 1049               1946	            2215	                -15%


Ashland           Data Not Avail	 1241               3258                4489                   -27%

				
Ashtabula     1789    1940   5224        2443 (+26%)    2273 (+14%)  5668 (+7%)       +13%


Athens          4393    1054  5447         2298 (-47%)       935 (-11%)   4149 (-.05%)     -20%


Auglaize        437     1502  2019         338 (-22%)        1251 (-16%)   1589 (-.37%)    -25%


Belmont         Data Not Avail            5335                    2397 	   5306                  -.08%


Brown           605   1016 2230            627 (+.03%)      1127 (+.09%) 1754 (+5%)       +.01%


Butler              Data Not Avail             1979                  6883              14776	       -45%


Carrol            620   1061    1949          601 (-.03%)       867 (-23%)   1622 (-16%)        -14%  


Champaign     1653   1820    1636         466 (-71%)      1381 (-24%)   1847 (+11%)      -23%    


Clark              7403    3803    6831       3055 (-48%)      4137 (+.08)   9862 (+30%)       -.05%


Clermont            Data Not Avail            1073                 7084            14,587  	         -14%


Clinton           1366    2039    2044         396 (-71%)   1659 (-18%)     2103 (+.02%)       -23%

Columbiana     2678 1912  3249	1734 (-28%)   2258 (+15%)   5342(+39)                +16%


Coshocton      457   1244  3943         471 (+.02%)  1378 (+.09%)  2565 (-34%)             -.07%

							
Crawford       2018  1965 1808          873 (-57%) 1550 (-21%)   2618 (+30%)                -12%)


Cuyahoga  151,296 36,232 96,224  138,493(-.08%) 52,039 (+30%) 84,669 (-.04%)       -.03%


Darke           743   966   2833             619 (-16%)  1968(+50%)  2587(-.08%)                 -.08%

					
Defiance       620  1196  2701	 585(-.05%) 1133(-.05%)   3754 (.+27%)               -12%

		
Delaware         No Data Available      2799             8754             17,041                           -16%


Erie             5720   2262   6253         3407(-40%)  2458(+.07)    6048(-.02%)		-16%


Fairfield         No Data Available        5475            7984              7612         		-20%


Fayette        880       946    1366          242(-72%)     488(-.48)      1774(+22%)	             -21%


Franklin     48,811 40,334  180,656  33,690(-30%)  36,218(-10%) 149,626(-17%)               -18%


Fulton         552      1653   3150            443(-19%)      1413(-14%)   2255(-28%)                -23%


Gallia (no data at all)


Geauga     1378      3840   8721           1333(-.03%)   3946(+.02%) 8388(-.04%)                -.01%

46 posted on 11/04/2012 9:26:21 AM PST by LS
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To: Arec Barrwin

If Cuyahoga and Summit are close to 2008 numbers, what does that say to those who told us that Democratic enthusiasm isn’t as strong in 2012 as it was in 2008?

The Rats have thousands of SEIU, NEA union members, ACLU types, NARAL, Planned Parenthood, LGBT and Rainbow Coalition, high school and college kids and by one report even illegals impressed into their ground game with fleet loads of buses taking even the homeless and mentally retarded to the polls. Do the Republican have a ground game to match?


47 posted on 11/04/2012 9:27:03 AM PST by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

You know now the myth of 2008 - that Democratic base turnout won the election - it didn’t. Kerry maxed out the base and Obama simply maintained it. Obama won because Republicans were unenthusiastic and/or crossed over.

Republicans have come home. That’s why this election will be like 2004.


48 posted on 11/04/2012 9:36:31 AM PST by Arec Barrwin
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To: bort
In The PA Primary, there was a lot of under voting for Obama. People that left the Presidential pick unchecked. In my county people left the top spot empty on 25% of Democratic ballots cast. In the center of PA some counties had 41% left Obama’s name unchecked. So if you are not proud enough to check Obama’s name and want to send a protest vote to Obama, are you really going to go out of your way to vote for him on Nov 6th.
49 posted on 11/04/2012 9:41:39 AM PST by Plumres
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To: Arec Barrwin
If I'm reading the numbers wrong, please tell me. But it seems that the OH and VA numbers by county tell the tale -- small decreases in the Democratic areas but huge increases in Republican areas.

That is the type of information Barone uses in his predictions. The shifting local demographics.

50 posted on 11/04/2012 9:44:11 AM PST by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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