“If we can steal another midwestern state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, we could get some insurance incase Virginia goes sour.”
Add Iowa to the states likely to go sour. The Nov. 4 Des Moines Register poll is out showing President Obama with a 5 point lead - Romney only has 42.
That poll has a history of being horribly wrong. Said Obama would win by 17 points, he won by only 9. Said Kerry would win Iowa by 3, but Bush won Iowa.
Iowa is in play. No other reason for Obama to be spending so much time there in the final weekend.
Internals?
Forget Iowa, this is down to Virginia and Ohio.
Or, another way to look at it, less than a week before election day and Obama has only nailed down 47% of the vote in a state he won easily back in 2008.
If undecideds break heavily for the challenger, as they have in almost every single past election, Romney could indeed still take Iowa.
I’ve been polling folks in OH, PA, & WI (and other swing states as a pollster research assistant) for this election. A lot of Obama support but Romney has many backers too. Then I get folks who say they hate both parties/candidates & to “hell” with them both. Lol
Register's "Iowa poll" has 47, Romney 42 with each including one point of leaners.
Are there any other polls out there leaving 11% not allocated to either?! That 11% broke down as 4% Someone else, 2% "Not sure (didn't remember)" and 5% "Don't want to tell".
Does anyone think Gary Johnson wins 4% in Iowa? Ron Paul may have finished third in the caucus voting, but he captured the state party apparatus by outmaneuvering the rest during the subsequent conventions. If the Iowa Ron Paul leadership encourages voting for itself it is advising voting Republican!
As for those "Don't want to tell" folks, was it the voters didn't want to tell or the Register didn't want to tell about them?
I'll concede the "not sure" and "don't remember" folks as Obama fodder, but doubt they'll decide and remember to vote by Tuesday.
The poll provided no D/R/I breakdown. In 2008 in Iowa registered D lead R by a lot (about 200k IIRC), but currently R leads D by 1400 with I leading both. Last weekend's endorsement of Romney was the Register recognizing reality and trying to remain relevant after the election. This poll is their final attempt to thwart reality.