Or, another way to look at it, less than a week before election day and Obama has only nailed down 47% of the vote in a state he won easily back in 2008.
If undecideds break heavily for the challenger, as they have in almost every single past election, Romney could indeed still take Iowa.
As I recall most of the feeling by experts was that Kerry would take OH in 2004, if only narrowly. We see how that turned out.