Skip to comments.Parsing the Polls [Why Romney Could Win By 5-10 points]
Posted on 11/03/2012 5:07:11 PM PDT by Steelfish
NOVEMBER 3 Parsing the Polls If Gallup is right, Tuesday will be a long night for the Democratic party. By Michael G. Franc
Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this years polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romneys lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests.
Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with likely voters conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004. Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier.
But Gallup uncovered one very significant shift in this years voting electorate. There has been a remarkable movement toward the Republican party. As Gallup reports:
The largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters. Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.
If anything, Gallup understates the case......
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
If these sorts of predictions are true, what will happen to Chris Mathews on election night? Will he blow a gasket? Will he have a meltdown? What about Ed Schulz and others on MSNBC?
I want to watch MSNBC to see the reaction there if the election goes for Romney.
The way the pollsters are acting right now, I have to call bull**** that Romney and Barry are tied. I think it is being reported that Romney and Barry are tied in order to get Barry’s zombies to the polls in hopes of getting their messiah a decent showing and maybe getting it close enough that their “lawyers” can take over. JMO. I don’t trust any of the polls right now. They are ALL clueless.
If the country would pull its head out of its butt, this election would not be close. Personally, I think this will be the first one in a long time with no doubt as to who the winner is.
Heck, that'll happen if Romney wins, period. My personal take is that he has a 50% chance. Here's hoping...
Romney is going to win big!
That's definitely an issue for folks like me who don't pay to run our own polls.
If it over a four point difference I’m going to win a lot of bets. I made these bets months ago. (ps, Romney is NOT the answer to America’s ills but he will win big nonetheless)
I’m guessing 9%. PA might get called around 9PM and the last hour of CA and WA Dems stay home.
RCP was pretty accurate in 08 and 04. I dont want to get my hopes up. Demographic realities + buying votes = O2.
“PA might get called around 9PM and the last hour of CA and WA Dems stay home.”
Let’s hope that happens for CA, but for WA we have mail in ballots so most voters have already voted.
I agree with you. You can study these polls and still have no idea why the polls reached its conclusion. I personally think most of them are “made up”. The data can not be accurate. There is no way several random polls can have specific internals that mirror each other and yet the history shows it can not be accurate.
Also the people that alledgedly average these polls have a specific agenda. Take RCP. They pick and chose what polls are included and how often. A crappy poll from a relatively unknown Pollster can count as much as a Pollster with a previous “good” record. They also count the one poll into the entire average yet only count the rolling polls once despite they are posted daily. I have a favorite but regardless, the actions of the pollsters and the polling aggregators is clearly biased. they don’t even pretend to hide their agenda.
Two things ~ PEW says response rates are down to 9%. Muawiyah guesses that's due to Caller ID which makes it possible for folks to know who is trying to call them ~ so they can pick and chose!
Going beyond that Gallup has spent the last year asking their sample people about their sexual inclinations ~ no doubt to just find out how many gays are out there, but also to identify other characteristics that denote gays so they can, Voila! EXCLUDE THEM FROM THEIR REPORTS.
When we left off Gallup said there were about 3.5% gays in this country. With a 9% response rate (PEW report), and understanding gays always do the polls, that means they are overreported as much as 1100%. Same with their mates the Feminazis, and the Abortion business!
These three groups combined are probably 1% or less of the sample population, but they provide as much as 11% of the responses.
Gallup is telling us now that if they simply drop these people ~ who are probably also Democrats ~ from the results Romney, by reputation a straight guy, is sweeping all before him.
WTH are you trying to say there?
Why would they call East Coast States before the polls on the West Coast are closed?
I think we are all tuning in to MSNBC - they may have their highest ratings ever :)
People do not trust MSM or Obama. People are tired of hearing lies. Obama seems in over his head as President; not up for the job. Obama cannot work with a Republican House to solve problems and cannot negotiate properly or lead the country.
Most of the polls are based on huge Democrat turnout (2008+). Not going to happen. Obama is in trouble.
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