I respectfully disagree.
At this point, the only polls worth looking at are the tracking polls.
The state polls that will be released between now and election day would have been conducted during the Sandy bounce. In other words, they are outdated before the are even published.
The trends in the tracking polls should tell us who has the momentum and who will win. Historically, it is the challenger who gains momentum heading into election day.
If that holds true this year, Obama is in big trouble, although it is still very close.
Even tracking polls are garbage.
The data is bad because it rests on a bad assumption.
Namely, that this election is a rerun of 2008.
It won’t be. But the pollsters refuse to make adjustments for it. And Romney probably knows that in reality, he has a very comfortable lead. He can afford to take some risks.
O has run out of time.
And looking back to 2004 and 2008, the state polls were all over the place and often wildly off the final margins, whereas the national polls nailed it for the most part.