And looking back to 2004 and 2008, the state polls were all over the place and often wildly off the final margins, whereas the national polls nailed it for the most part.
I think one of the stories that will be discussed after the election is that national pollsters don’t know how to conduct state polls.
Just this week two polls from Florida showed totally contradictory results. One had Obama winning by five, the other had Romney winning by six.
Even “margin of error” doesn’t really explain that type of discrepancy.