Posted on 11/02/2012 6:29:11 AM PDT by Hojczyk
Obama took care to irradiate the swing states with his negative attacks on Romney. When the voters in those states saw that Mitt was not a Halloween monster but a pretty nice and reasonable guy, his negative stopped working and the states started falling to Romney.
But in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, the negatives on Romney never ran. The only Romney they saw in these states was the very presentable and attractive one who showed up in the debates. So there was no obstacle to hold them back from voting for Mitt.
Obama’s static dependence on the swing states to constitute a firewall backfired. The firewall became like the French Maginot Line of 1940, easily outflanked. When Romney began to buy ads in the semi-swing states, Obama was slow to respond. I nitially, his campaign dismissed Romney’s ads in Pennsylvania as a bluff intended to draw Obama’s resources away from Ohio. But it was no bluff. Romney’s people realized that 20 votes in Pennsylvania were as good as 18 in Ohio.
And, in this final week, Romney’s campaign and its allied groups are spending $11 million on Pennsylvania ads as opposed to only $2 million for Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...
in before the first “toe-sucker” comment ... which is getting old.
This is no joke, I live in South Jersey which is under the media umbrella of Philadelphia. This morning my wife had the local news on as we got ready and it was one ad after another saying how poor a job Obama has done. They weren’t from Romney directly, they were from various PACs. Add that to Romney’s direct media buys and it will be wall to wall Romney over the next few days.
I am calling it. PA goes R this year.
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Obama started to blow it here with his infamous “bitter clingers” comment in ‘08. That was directly aimed at residents of this Commonwealth.
Then his campaign made the inexplicable decision to write-off white working class voters over a year ago. Whenever the Dems win here that is the group that carries them to victory.
Pile on the fact that he has declared war on Catholics, Coal and the Shale Gas industry, and things are shaping up pretty badly for him.
Plus he further alienated those white blue-collar voters with the Skip Gates controversy, Philly Black Panthers, and Trayvon Martin, indicating that Obama had already chosen up racial sides. They’ll never tell a pollster but that scares the crap out of them.
An underrated factor was the passing away of John Murtha and the disappearance of his district. It was filled with Bitter Clingers to lean Conservative, but kept voting Democrat because the only jobs available depended on his ability to divert Federal monies. He is gone, those jobs are leaving, and it’s become a non-issue.
Barone makes a good point that affluent suburban voters, heavily present in PA, are deserting Obama in droves.
Exactly, I live in Lancaster Pa. Listening to Rush on the local radio network...during the commercial break there were 5 count em 5 Romney ads in a row from various PACs, including Conference of Catholic Bishops, National Right to Life, Republican National Committee, and Romney’s own ads. And that is EVERY commercial break. Other radio networks are carrying them too. This state is being inundated with ads for Romney
As much as we don’t like this about Mitt, he is moderate, RINO-y and non-threatening enough to sell in the Philly suburbs. Such Republicans are the ones who typically do quite well here unfortunately.
Not only is it old, it's completely irrelevant to the man's political analysis.
Actually there were a good bit of ANTI-ROMNEY ads early on... but Obama’s team figured they had it locked because they don’t have a clue about these states or the electorate in general.
Once they thought they had them won, and Mitt wasn’t fighting for them they stopped running ads.. in the mean time republican candidates accross these states kept fighting for election and found combinations of critiques and attacks that worked.
What worked? Simply tying a candidate to Obama and Pelosi worked! Why? because while rust belt states may be registered democrats, they are NOT raging liberals. They are mostly hard working folks who just believe everyone deserves a fair shake, many are dems out of historical reasons not ideological ones. When Obama declared war on their sensibilities... and religions.... and jobs they said enough is enough.
There is nothing different in the crap coming out of Obama’s mouth in 2012 than 2008, but in 2008 when you brough up the fact the guy said he wanted to destroy coal, miners in the Miners Union didn’t believe him.. now they have a 4 year record of destruction to know he did indeed mean it. 4 Years ago when it was pointed out Obama was in a radical anti-white church for 20 years, democrats said, get out of here, no one believes he believes any of that... now they know he does.
Obama took the blue collar white working class voters of the rust belt for granted, he kicked them in the teeth for 4 years and then just figured they’d come to the ballot box like they always do and pull the D lever... once Mitt withdrew they figured they didn’t need to work... Typical pattern for this guy actually.. talk a big game but when it comes to following through and doing the work... phone it in.
Obama will lose without question IA, OH and IN.. He will also lose at least 2 of the following PA, WI & MI.
MN and IL probably will hold but suprises have been known to happen, but I would classify them as safe.
what is going to be interesting to see is if this is a 1 election swing due to Obama, or if a long overdue re-alignment of the rust belt away from leftist democrats is occurring? The more radical and openly communist the Democrats go, the more likely we are looking at a fundamental realignment of the rust belt. And if that happens there will not be another democratic President for at least a generation.
Of those Michigan is the one which most surprises me. When I lived there I could not get over how the vast majority had totally bought into blue model union Democrat economics.
If Romney delivers on economic issues and fracking means PA will have industry again (like the ethane cracker planned in Beaver county and companies using its products), we could see a realignment. Democrats, of course, like Casey claim they are pro-coal and pro-fracking. Will the people buy it?
Unfortunately running anti-Obama ads during Rush is like preaching to the choir.
We may be witnessing a historic moment when hitherto instinctive Democrat voters permanently reject that party.
Time to toss all the chips in. We all playing for broke.
“Unfortunately running anti-Obama ads during Rush is like preaching to the choir.”
Very true, but just this morning I heard a very good ad on a popular FM station in the SE PA area. (Ben FM 95.7) It was Romney telling what he wants to fix, and by the way, he’s already proven he can do it as a governor.
As I drove to work in Malvern (30 miles west of Philly) I saw tons and tons of message signs, greatly outnumbering the regular campaign signs. CASEY+OBAMA=16 TRILLION IN DEBT. CASEY+OBAMA HATE JOBS. GROWTH + PROPERITY? VOTE REPUBLICAN.
I can’t speak for Philly, but the GOP is crushing the Obama campaign in the suburbs as far as signs go. Malvern, King of Prussia, Wayne, Downingtown, West Chester, Paoli. Pretty much up and down the mainline.
Overall I’m feeling pretty good about PA. The NEA libs in our neighborhood have no signs or bumper stickers this time around, and a few of our non-political neighbors actually have Romney signs in their yards.
Arlen Specter’s stronghold - ugh.
Not to mention that one Tom Smith commercial they play over and over and over and over, the one with his mom. If there is anyone in PA who hasn’t seen that a thousand times yet, they aren’t watching TV. Come on Tom, get a new commercial!
Regarding your last paragraph, this is exactly what happened with the Dixiecrats in the 1960s and was supposed to happen with the Reagan Democrats in the 1980s, but didn’t.
The future demographic realignment will happen along racial and ethnic lines. I expect that Texas and Arizona will be back in the D column within 20 years given the growth of the Hispanic communities there and their now solidifying alignment with the Democrats. Unless by some chance a Republican comes along and shows them the way to Conservatism and away from the identity politics demagaugery the Dems have been seeding them with.
Pennsylvania is the only state that could actually switch because of Hurricane Sandy.
New York and New Jersey were always going to vote for Obama. There has never been any question. How many votes Obama wins these states really makes no difference.
Pennsylvania, however, is close enough to swing. The Philadelphia area that was hardest hit by Sandy is a Democrat stronghold in the state. I can easily see Democrat voters who were never that fired up about voting for Obama anyway not taking the time to vote when they are more concerned about buying food, water and gasoline and cleaning up storm damage.
Regardless of his toe-sucking past, Morris is more often wrong than right when predicting election results. I don't necessarily discount anything he says, but I don't give it much weight either.
I am very afraid that you are right. Although most Hispanics that I know are far more socially and economically conservative than most Democrats, they still seem to be lining up to join the Democrat plantation.
I don’t watch regular TV. I have ROKU attached to my TV and spend all my time watching steaming movies and TV shows... without commercials...smile
Nice. I do too, mostly, Netflix for old stuff and DVR for the new (skipping commercials, of course). I refuse to pay for Hulu Plus because if I pay money for something that's free online I want no ads; they aren't playing along. Oh well, that's what DVRs are for. Of course news and sports have be live, and that's where I see commercials.
We recently got HBO and I discovered the HBO Go app, every original show HBO ever aired all free to stream if you subscribe to their channel. Wow, catching up on The Wire and The Sopranos alone will take months.
I’m in the same general area and can confirm. In fact, I don’t recall a recent election that had more republican signs, not McCain and not Bush.
I think PA. 2012 will look a lot like the Pennsylvania of 2010, not 2008.
-PJ
Obama took care to irradiate the swing states with his negative attacks on Romney. When the voters in those states saw that Mitt was not a Halloween monster but a pretty nice and reasonable guy, his negative stopped working and the states started falling to Romney. But in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, the negatives on Romney never ran. The only Romney they saw in these states was the very presentable and attractive one who showed up in the debates... When Romney began to buy ads in the semi-swing states, Obama was slow to respond. Initially, his campaign dismissed Romney's ads in Pennsylvania as a bluff intended to draw Obama's resources away from Ohio... And, in this final week, Romney's campaign and its allied groups are spending $11 million on Pennsylvania ads as opposed to only $2 million for Obama.Obama would wrap this campaign up if he'd just remind Pennsylvania voters of his war on coal. Whoops! Or the New Black Panthers. Whoops!
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