Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Obama’s Pennsylvania Blunder
Dick Morris.com ^ | November 2,2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 11/02/2012 6:29:11 AM PDT by Hojczyk

Obama took care to irradiate the swing states with his negative attacks on Romney. When the voters in those states saw that Mitt was not a Halloween monster but a pretty nice and reasonable guy, his negative stopped working and the states started falling to Romney.

But in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, the negatives on Romney never ran. The only Romney they saw in these states was the very presentable and attractive one who showed up in the debates. So there was no obstacle to hold them back from voting for Mitt.

Obama’s static dependence on the swing states to constitute a firewall backfired. The firewall became like the French Maginot Line of 1940, easily outflanked. When Romney began to buy ads in the semi-swing states, Obama was slow to respond. I nitially, his campaign dismissed Romney’s ads in Pennsylvania as a bluff intended to draw Obama’s resources away from Ohio. But it was no bluff. Romney’s people realized that 20 votes in Pennsylvania were as good as 18 in Ohio.

And, in this final week, Romney’s campaign and its allied groups are spending $11 million on Pennsylvania ads as opposed to only $2 million for Obama.

(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Michigan; US: Minnesota; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: michigan; minnesota; ohio; wisconsin

1 posted on 11/02/2012 6:29:12 AM PDT by Hojczyk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Hojczyk

in before the first “toe-sucker” comment ... which is getting old.


2 posted on 11/02/2012 6:36:20 AM PDT by InvisibleChurch (the mature Christian is almost impossible to offend)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Hojczyk

This is no joke, I live in South Jersey which is under the media umbrella of Philadelphia. This morning my wife had the local news on as we got ready and it was one ad after another saying how poor a job Obama has done. They weren’t from Romney directly, they were from various PACs. Add that to Romney’s direct media buys and it will be wall to wall Romney over the next few days.


3 posted on 11/02/2012 6:36:44 AM PDT by pepsi_junkie (Who is John Galt?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Hojczyk

I am calling it. PA goes R this year.


4 posted on 11/02/2012 6:44:20 AM PDT by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


5 posted on 11/02/2012 6:46:40 AM PDT by randita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Hojczyk

Obama started to blow it here with his infamous “bitter clingers” comment in ‘08. That was directly aimed at residents of this Commonwealth.

Then his campaign made the inexplicable decision to write-off white working class voters over a year ago. Whenever the Dems win here that is the group that carries them to victory.

Pile on the fact that he has declared war on Catholics, Coal and the Shale Gas industry, and things are shaping up pretty badly for him.

Plus he further alienated those white blue-collar voters with the Skip Gates controversy, Philly Black Panthers, and Trayvon Martin, indicating that Obama had already chosen up racial sides. They’ll never tell a pollster but that scares the crap out of them.

An underrated factor was the passing away of John Murtha and the disappearance of his district. It was filled with Bitter Clingers to lean Conservative, but kept voting Democrat because the only jobs available depended on his ability to divert Federal monies. He is gone, those jobs are leaving, and it’s become a non-issue.


6 posted on 11/02/2012 6:46:52 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye McFrog

Barone makes a good point that affluent suburban voters, heavily present in PA, are deserting Obama in droves.


7 posted on 11/02/2012 6:52:35 AM PDT by randita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye McFrog
Salena Zito thinks it is leaning to Mittens...she will probable be on John Batchelor Sunday or Monday..
8 posted on 11/02/2012 6:55:17 AM PDT by Hojczyk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: pepsi_junkie

Exactly, I live in Lancaster Pa. Listening to Rush on the local radio network...during the commercial break there were 5 count em 5 Romney ads in a row from various PACs, including Conference of Catholic Bishops, National Right to Life, Republican National Committee, and Romney’s own ads. And that is EVERY commercial break. Other radio networks are carrying them too. This state is being inundated with ads for Romney


9 posted on 11/02/2012 6:56:30 AM PDT by PaulZe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: randita

As much as we don’t like this about Mitt, he is moderate, RINO-y and non-threatening enough to sell in the Philly suburbs. Such Republicans are the ones who typically do quite well here unfortunately.


10 posted on 11/02/2012 7:01:21 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: InvisibleChurch
in before the first “toe-sucker” comment ... which is getting old.

Not only is it old, it's completely irrelevant to the man's political analysis.

11 posted on 11/02/2012 7:06:46 AM PDT by OldPossum
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Hojczyk

Actually there were a good bit of ANTI-ROMNEY ads early on... but Obama’s team figured they had it locked because they don’t have a clue about these states or the electorate in general.

Once they thought they had them won, and Mitt wasn’t fighting for them they stopped running ads.. in the mean time republican candidates accross these states kept fighting for election and found combinations of critiques and attacks that worked.

What worked? Simply tying a candidate to Obama and Pelosi worked! Why? because while rust belt states may be registered democrats, they are NOT raging liberals. They are mostly hard working folks who just believe everyone deserves a fair shake, many are dems out of historical reasons not ideological ones. When Obama declared war on their sensibilities... and religions.... and jobs they said enough is enough.

There is nothing different in the crap coming out of Obama’s mouth in 2012 than 2008, but in 2008 when you brough up the fact the guy said he wanted to destroy coal, miners in the Miners Union didn’t believe him.. now they have a 4 year record of destruction to know he did indeed mean it. 4 Years ago when it was pointed out Obama was in a radical anti-white church for 20 years, democrats said, get out of here, no one believes he believes any of that... now they know he does.

Obama took the blue collar white working class voters of the rust belt for granted, he kicked them in the teeth for 4 years and then just figured they’d come to the ballot box like they always do and pull the D lever... once Mitt withdrew they figured they didn’t need to work... Typical pattern for this guy actually.. talk a big game but when it comes to following through and doing the work... phone it in.

Obama will lose without question IA, OH and IN.. He will also lose at least 2 of the following PA, WI & MI.

MN and IL probably will hold but suprises have been known to happen, but I would classify them as safe.

what is going to be interesting to see is if this is a 1 election swing due to Obama, or if a long overdue re-alignment of the rust belt away from leftist democrats is occurring? The more radical and openly communist the Democrats go, the more likely we are looking at a fundamental realignment of the rust belt. And if that happens there will not be another democratic President for at least a generation.


12 posted on 11/02/2012 7:08:54 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay

Of those Michigan is the one which most surprises me. When I lived there I could not get over how the vast majority had totally bought into blue model union Democrat economics.


13 posted on 11/02/2012 7:15:46 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay

If Romney delivers on economic issues and fracking means PA will have industry again (like the ethane cracker planned in Beaver county and companies using its products), we could see a realignment. Democrats, of course, like Casey claim they are pro-coal and pro-fracking. Will the people buy it?


14 posted on 11/02/2012 7:18:28 AM PDT by SoothingDave
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: PaulZe

Unfortunately running anti-Obama ads during Rush is like preaching to the choir.


15 posted on 11/02/2012 7:19:57 AM PDT by PaForBush
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay; Buckeye McFrog
because while rust belt states may be registered democrats, they are NOT raging liberals. They are mostly hard working folks who just believe everyone deserves a fair shake, many are dems out of historical reasons not ideological ones

We may be witnessing a historic moment when hitherto instinctive Democrat voters permanently reject that party.

16 posted on 11/02/2012 7:21:36 AM PDT by Cronos (**Marriage is about commitment, cohabitation is about convenience.**)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Hojczyk

Time to toss all the chips in. We all playing for broke.


17 posted on 11/02/2012 7:30:16 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (Beware the worst Halloween nightmare, the "Comeback Kid".......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: PaForBush

“Unfortunately running anti-Obama ads during Rush is like preaching to the choir.”

Very true, but just this morning I heard a very good ad on a popular FM station in the SE PA area. (Ben FM 95.7) It was Romney telling what he wants to fix, and by the way, he’s already proven he can do it as a governor.

As I drove to work in Malvern (30 miles west of Philly) I saw tons and tons of message signs, greatly outnumbering the regular campaign signs. CASEY+OBAMA=16 TRILLION IN DEBT. CASEY+OBAMA HATE JOBS. GROWTH + PROPERITY? VOTE REPUBLICAN.

I can’t speak for Philly, but the GOP is crushing the Obama campaign in the suburbs as far as signs go. Malvern, King of Prussia, Wayne, Downingtown, West Chester, Paoli. Pretty much up and down the mainline.

Overall I’m feeling pretty good about PA. The NEA libs in our neighborhood have no signs or bumper stickers this time around, and a few of our non-political neighbors actually have Romney signs in their yards.


18 posted on 11/02/2012 7:33:36 AM PDT by ConservativeWarrior (Fall down 7 times, stand up 8. - Japanese proverb)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye McFrog

Arlen Specter’s stronghold - ugh.


19 posted on 11/02/2012 7:39:15 AM PDT by randita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: PaulZe

Not to mention that one Tom Smith commercial they play over and over and over and over, the one with his mom. If there is anyone in PA who hasn’t seen that a thousand times yet, they aren’t watching TV. Come on Tom, get a new commercial!


20 posted on 11/02/2012 7:50:17 AM PDT by pepsi_junkie (Who is John Galt?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay

Regarding your last paragraph, this is exactly what happened with the Dixiecrats in the 1960s and was supposed to happen with the Reagan Democrats in the 1980s, but didn’t.

The future demographic realignment will happen along racial and ethnic lines. I expect that Texas and Arizona will be back in the D column within 20 years given the growth of the Hispanic communities there and their now solidifying alignment with the Democrats. Unless by some chance a Republican comes along and shows them the way to Conservatism and away from the identity politics demagaugery the Dems have been seeding them with.


21 posted on 11/02/2012 7:52:15 AM PDT by tanknetter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Hojczyk

Pennsylvania is the only state that could actually switch because of Hurricane Sandy.

New York and New Jersey were always going to vote for Obama. There has never been any question. How many votes Obama wins these states really makes no difference.

Pennsylvania, however, is close enough to swing. The Philadelphia area that was hardest hit by Sandy is a Democrat stronghold in the state. I can easily see Democrat voters who were never that fired up about voting for Obama anyway not taking the time to vote when they are more concerned about buying food, water and gasoline and cleaning up storm damage.


22 posted on 11/02/2012 8:04:43 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (Are we nearing the end of the Obamanation?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OldPossum
Not only is it old, it's completely irrelevant to the man's political analysis.

Regardless of his toe-sucking past, Morris is more often wrong than right when predicting election results. I don't necessarily discount anything he says, but I don't give it much weight either.

23 posted on 11/02/2012 8:08:23 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (Are we nearing the end of the Obamanation?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: tanknetter
The future demographic realignment will happen along racial and ethnic lines. I expect that Texas and Arizona will be back in the D column within 20 years given the growth of the Hispanic communities there and their now solidifying alignment with the Democrats.

I am very afraid that you are right. Although most Hispanics that I know are far more socially and economically conservative than most Democrats, they still seem to be lining up to join the Democrat plantation.

24 posted on 11/02/2012 8:11:53 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (Are we nearing the end of the Obamanation?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: pepsi_junkie

I don’t watch regular TV. I have ROKU attached to my TV and spend all my time watching steaming movies and TV shows... without commercials...smile


25 posted on 11/02/2012 8:20:43 AM PDT by PaulZe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: PaulZe
I have ROKU attached to my TV and spend all my time watching steaming movies and TV shows... without commercials...smile

Nice. I do too, mostly, Netflix for old stuff and DVR for the new (skipping commercials, of course). I refuse to pay for Hulu Plus because if I pay money for something that's free online I want no ads; they aren't playing along. Oh well, that's what DVRs are for. Of course news and sports have be live, and that's where I see commercials.

We recently got HBO and I discovered the HBO Go app, every original show HBO ever aired all free to stream if you subscribe to their channel. Wow, catching up on The Wire and The Sopranos alone will take months.

26 posted on 11/02/2012 8:33:57 AM PDT by pepsi_junkie (Who is John Galt?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeWarrior

I’m in the same general area and can confirm. In fact, I don’t recall a recent election that had more republican signs, not McCain and not Bush.

I think PA. 2012 will look a lot like the Pennsylvania of 2010, not 2008.


27 posted on 11/02/2012 9:14:28 AM PDT by SueRae (See it? Hell, I can TASTE November from my house!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: OldPossum
At least he paid in full.

-PJ

28 posted on 11/02/2012 9:18:34 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Hojczyk.
Obama took care to irradiate the swing states with his negative attacks on Romney. When the voters in those states saw that Mitt was not a Halloween monster but a pretty nice and reasonable guy, his negative stopped working and the states started falling to Romney. But in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, the negatives on Romney never ran. The only Romney they saw in these states was the very presentable and attractive one who showed up in the debates... When Romney began to buy ads in the semi-swing states, Obama was slow to respond. Initially, his campaign dismissed Romney's ads in Pennsylvania as a bluff intended to draw Obama's resources away from Ohio... And, in this final week, Romney's campaign and its allied groups are spending $11 million on Pennsylvania ads as opposed to only $2 million for Obama.
Obama would wrap this campaign up if he'd just remind Pennsylvania voters of his war on coal. Whoops! Or the New Black Panthers. Whoops!


29 posted on 11/02/2012 9:01:31 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson