in before the first “toe-sucker” comment ... which is getting old.
This is no joke, I live in South Jersey which is under the media umbrella of Philadelphia. This morning my wife had the local news on as we got ready and it was one ad after another saying how poor a job Obama has done. They weren’t from Romney directly, they were from various PACs. Add that to Romney’s direct media buys and it will be wall to wall Romney over the next few days.
I am calling it. PA goes R this year.
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Obama started to blow it here with his infamous “bitter clingers” comment in ‘08. That was directly aimed at residents of this Commonwealth.
Then his campaign made the inexplicable decision to write-off white working class voters over a year ago. Whenever the Dems win here that is the group that carries them to victory.
Pile on the fact that he has declared war on Catholics, Coal and the Shale Gas industry, and things are shaping up pretty badly for him.
Plus he further alienated those white blue-collar voters with the Skip Gates controversy, Philly Black Panthers, and Trayvon Martin, indicating that Obama had already chosen up racial sides. They’ll never tell a pollster but that scares the crap out of them.
An underrated factor was the passing away of John Murtha and the disappearance of his district. It was filled with Bitter Clingers to lean Conservative, but kept voting Democrat because the only jobs available depended on his ability to divert Federal monies. He is gone, those jobs are leaving, and it’s become a non-issue.
Actually there were a good bit of ANTI-ROMNEY ads early on... but Obama’s team figured they had it locked because they don’t have a clue about these states or the electorate in general.
Once they thought they had them won, and Mitt wasn’t fighting for them they stopped running ads.. in the mean time republican candidates accross these states kept fighting for election and found combinations of critiques and attacks that worked.
What worked? Simply tying a candidate to Obama and Pelosi worked! Why? because while rust belt states may be registered democrats, they are NOT raging liberals. They are mostly hard working folks who just believe everyone deserves a fair shake, many are dems out of historical reasons not ideological ones. When Obama declared war on their sensibilities... and religions.... and jobs they said enough is enough.
There is nothing different in the crap coming out of Obama’s mouth in 2012 than 2008, but in 2008 when you brough up the fact the guy said he wanted to destroy coal, miners in the Miners Union didn’t believe him.. now they have a 4 year record of destruction to know he did indeed mean it. 4 Years ago when it was pointed out Obama was in a radical anti-white church for 20 years, democrats said, get out of here, no one believes he believes any of that... now they know he does.
Obama took the blue collar white working class voters of the rust belt for granted, he kicked them in the teeth for 4 years and then just figured they’d come to the ballot box like they always do and pull the D lever... once Mitt withdrew they figured they didn’t need to work... Typical pattern for this guy actually.. talk a big game but when it comes to following through and doing the work... phone it in.
Obama will lose without question IA, OH and IN.. He will also lose at least 2 of the following PA, WI & MI.
MN and IL probably will hold but suprises have been known to happen, but I would classify them as safe.
what is going to be interesting to see is if this is a 1 election swing due to Obama, or if a long overdue re-alignment of the rust belt away from leftist democrats is occurring? The more radical and openly communist the Democrats go, the more likely we are looking at a fundamental realignment of the rust belt. And if that happens there will not be another democratic President for at least a generation.
Time to toss all the chips in. We all playing for broke.
Pennsylvania is the only state that could actually switch because of Hurricane Sandy.
New York and New Jersey were always going to vote for Obama. There has never been any question. How many votes Obama wins these states really makes no difference.
Pennsylvania, however, is close enough to swing. The Philadelphia area that was hardest hit by Sandy is a Democrat stronghold in the state. I can easily see Democrat voters who were never that fired up about voting for Obama anyway not taking the time to vote when they are more concerned about buying food, water and gasoline and cleaning up storm damage.