Posted on 10/28/2012 7:01:43 PM PDT by SmithL
FWIW - I happened to be in Wilmington, DE (I’m from the pacific NW) yesterday driving around and saw zero, zilch, NADA obama signs but tons of Romney signs.
This has to be a scary scenario for Obama: for sake of argument I am giving him Michigan, Nevada, Iowa, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. This article was enough to put Florida in the Romney column. If Romney wins Virginia but loses Ohio he can still win by winning New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Romney obviously can’t lose both Virginia and Ohio but if he splits he is still in position to win. Obama doesn’t have any safer path than Romney as soon as Florida goes to Romney.
Ames is a university town. Any opinion base on a poll of reporters’ questions is going to be biased. Reporters aren’t going to bother to ask “workers”.
They’re not counting the same swing states that RCP is. Here are Romney’s possible paths to victory if the election is close.
Romney needs to get a base of 248 EVs including VA, NC and FL. Then he has several ways to carve up the swing states and win. My favored target is with WI, CO and NH.
Swing states:
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (18)
Michigan (16)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Winning OH gets him 266. He needs any one of the other 7 remaining swing states to win, the smallest being NH.
Winning PA puts him in the same position at 268 of needing one more state.
Winning MI puts him in almost the same position, except NH wouldn’t be enough to put him over the top then, he’d need any one of the other bigger states.
Winning WI gives him 258 EVs. He needs 12 more EVs to win. It could be CO and any one of NH, IA or NV, or it could just be IA and NV.
If he misses all those bigger states, then he needs all 4 of CO, IA, NV and NH to win outright. He could lose NH in that scenario and still tie, which would guarantee him the win in the tie-breaking House vote, but possibly allow the Senate to elect Biden as V.P.
The AP is still asuming that FL, NC, VA, CO and NH are still “toss-ups” which is not the case. They are lean Romney. So in fact Romney is closer to victory than Obama.
I'm in CA (SF East Bay Area) and I am skeptical of the "deep blue" CA on that electoral map. In one of the most liberal congressional districts in the state, the old stomping grounds of Ron Dellums, I am seeing BO bumper stickers on fewer than 1 percent of the cars. There are almost NO BO yard or window signs. I drove down a street that had a BO sign out in front a few weeks ago and today it wasn't there. No Romney signs or bumper stickers around, but people don't want their property vandalized.
Only in a small community with a responsible and responsive police presence will you see Romney signs in yards (sometimes more than one sign in the same yard -- I will not name where this is, out of a desire to protect the residents and their freedom to express their political preference on their own property).
If the mood is like this in CA-13, I have doubts about that color on the map. It should be no more than light blue, maybe even a tossup. Who knows? There are MANY grim people around here.
Only if he wins CO also, but CO seems to be one of the likelier swing state wins for Romney win for Romney. I think this path to victory seems more doable and I hope Romney starts hitting Wisconsin harder than he's hitting Ohio. I don't see how that state can vote for Obama after keeping Walker on by a large margin despite massive liberal action to defeat him. It certainly seems less likely than Ohio voting for Obama, especially if both Romney and hometown boy Ryan hit it hard.
Sununu and Romney's New England roots should be a boost to pulling in NH. Romney also did far better in NH's primary than IA, so I'd look to NH for a win before IA.
Hey great comparison there VikingMom!
AP via SFGate ..... No thanks.
Our neighborhood have chairs in the driveway meaning that they’re Romney supporters. Different kinds, subtle...some wicker, some plastic, some wooden, a rocker, etc. and flying the flag on the house.
I saw a chair in a front yard, by the curb. Didn’t see if it had a “free, please take” sign on it though.
A house that had a McCain/Palin sign on it in 2008 had an American flag on it when I saw it a few days ago. Having a flag out is a good statement. Vandals can’t justify attacking it, but it sends the right message.
No way FL & VA. are Tossups they are SOLID Red and O’Bumler has all but conceded them to Romney. IA and NH Are lean Romney and almost done. OH was JUST TODAY said by the Plain Dealer to be all tied at 49 - 49. That means O’Bumbler and WI and PA and MI are the NEW toss up states.
Fear not the ice is breaking under O’Buimblers feet. The October surprise is no surprise at all: A weak economy and a massive scandal of incompetence and political calculus over American lives is BLOWING UP AS WE SPEAK!
Romney 53 - 46 takes 320 -350 electoral votes, Rats lose the Senate and the House stays firmly Republican. Nov 7th, let the heeling begin!
Correct, I had put Colorado in the Romney column and I think Romney should be going hard in Wisconsin.
Correct, I had put Colorado in the Romney column and I think Romney should be going hard in Wisconsin.
Greta Van Susteren actually said she thought Romney was going to take Wisconsin last week. She’s a Cheesehead and that’s an unusual statement from someone who doesn’t offer a whole lot of opinions on her show. If Romney wins Wisconsin, it becomes very likely he can piece together a win, needing just a couple other small states.
Maybe Obama should make a You Tube Video of him and Biden drowning some Kittens to put them over 300 EV’s.
I swear, if this Country has a majority Electorate who can pull the lever for Obama / Biden, knowing what they know now, we are in a world of hurt with no way back to sanity.
This article is garbage..and merely repeats a Democr4at talking points mantra that I’ve heard for quite a while.
But things have changed.
Romney no longer NEEDS Ohio to win..
Instead..it is Obama to NEEDS Ohio..as his firewall against an easy Romney victory.
If anyone is rapidly losing options when it comes to an electoral college victory..it’s Obama.
I hope these so called leaders are ready for the next revolution. They are being put on notice. People are fed up with the bastards.
Most of them should be hung in a public square. They are traitors to this country.
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