Posted on 10/23/2012 11:13:53 AM PDT by CA Conservative
Obama: +2.0 Obama 46.5% | Romney 44.5% Obama’s lead over Romney eroded further in a polling taken the day of the final debate. Romney strengthened among males, going from a 1-point deficit two days ago to a 4-point lead. Likewise, Romney has gained 6 points among those described as “working class.” Romney also appears to have regained momentum among Catholic voters, among whom he was trailing three days ago, but has opened up an 8-point lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
for later
Some conservative aren’t counted as “Likely Voters” because they sat out the 2008 elections.
When you combine that with the poll bias due to High Dem enthusiasm last time, that isn’t present this time, the polls are 2-3 points short on measuring Romney support.
It’s all about momentum and Romney still has it.
They all seem to have Zero at 46-47%. That’s a killer number at this point.
Some conservative aren’t counted as “Likely Voters” because they sat out the 2008 elections.
When you combine that with the poll bias due to High Dem enthusiasm last time, that isn’t present this time, the polls are 2-3 points short on measuring Romney support.
“Some conservative aren’t counted as “Likely Voters” because they sat out the 2008 elections.
When you combine that with the poll bias due to High Dem enthusiasm last time, that isn’t present this time, the polls are 2-3 points short on measuring Romney support.”
This is an interesting observation. I don’t think Gallup and Rasmussen aren’t short because of what you’re pointing out here, (since it’s hard to be believe, for example, that Romney is really ahead by 8 instead of 6), but it could explain, at least in part, why the IBD poll has been so different than the Gallup poll. They were 10 points apart!
Sorry, I got a Network error after the first post, so I hit it again.....
There needs to be a whole lot of converging going on.
Gallup (presumed liberal) and IBD (presumed conservative) differ by 7 points, opposite of presumption.
A +7 spread for Democrats!
Keep in mind that IBD uses a D+7 turnout model - essentially predicting the same Dem advantage as 2008... Not gonna happen.
looks like the polls are moving more toward Gallup than the other way around - woo hoo!
Young women want abortions
Atheists want seclarism
Blacks want power
And what does the Jewish vote want?
All polls will start moving toward the truth now. They need to be seen as accurate in that last week otherwise they Zogby themselves and become a laughingstock, a useless poll.
“Some conservative aren’t counted as “Likely Voters” because they sat out the 2008 elections.”
Conservative Republicans because of McCain and RINO’s because of Palin.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.