Polls, Debates, and More with the Campaign Insiders! [FOX News segment w/ Pat Caddell]

YouTube ^ | 10/21/2012 | johnny dollar

[JediJones]

This is FOX News' Campaign Insiders weekly Sunday segment with the best and most unbiased, unslanted election analysis in the biz.

Caddell is not too enthusiastic about Gallup's polling model. Thinks 350 voters a day over 7 days are too small samples. They all think Romney is a couple points ahead though, closer to Rasmussen than Gallup.

They also think Obama did not get a bounce from the 2nd debate despite the liberal media trying to will it into reality. They think the trend is still moving in Romney's direction.

Caddell's saying Ohio may have been poisoned by Obama's very early and continuous advertising there, so he thinks Romney should look at other swing states like Pennsylvania to make up for it.

Caddell hates the WSJ/NBC polls showing Obama way ahead in some other swing states like Iowa, think's it's totally off the mark.

They think people will watch the 3rd debate in large numbers despite Monday Night Football. Undecided voters rank foreign policy very low, around 10% as an important issue, but they still think a big debate win or a big gaffe could affect the momentum of the race. They think Ryan and Romney have been flubbing the Libya issue and they better be prepared to nail it tomorrow. One guy is worried about Romney, thinks he too often fumbles the ball on foreign policy issues.

Their usual online Monday show will be posted on Monday at 10:30 AM.

[Utmost Certainty]

Agree with Caddell, I think OH is a lost cause as well.

Unfortunately, I can’t see PA going red. So I’m not sure where R-R is going to make up the EV shortfall.

[PghBaldy]

Considering how the 2nd debate went, with them literally getting in each other’s faces, I would think people would tune in for some sparks that may fly.

[Utmost Certainty]

Right now my sense is that Obama will indeed lose the popular vote by at least a few %, yet narrowly squeak out enough EVs to win.

I see a lot of people being optimistic, and that’s great. But I’m trying to take a step back and look at this situation dispassionately, and I’m just not seeing any indicative data to support the idea that Romney is necessarily going to win this thing. I see wild speculations about momentum shifts and what not, but the numbers simply aren’t adding up in my rough estimations.

Hopefully Mitt has an excellent debate tomorrow (and/or Obama bombs it hard).

[DemforBush]

Ohio’s been giving me an ulcer this election. I’m not ready to write it off just yet, but I don’t think it’s any better than 50/50. My recurring nightmare is that R/R come achingly close in Ohio as well as the fallback states that could make up for Ohio’s loss, but Obama manages to bamboozle just enough fools to prevail in just enough states to win.

[Utmost Certainty]

Yup, you’ve articulated exactly the same concern that’s been wracking me the past few days. Where it’ll come close—real close—but there’ll be just that 0.1% to put Obama over the top in the few key states he needs (like OH, PA, NV, etc).

[MestaMachine]

Don’t underestimate the impact of obama’s war on coal in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West by G-d Virginia. Not to mention his intent to reintroduce a ban on ‘asault weapons’.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

I believe Romney takes Ohio (and PA) athough it's been a little frustrating to follow - Ohio is a bit like a wagon stuck in the mud these past 10 days.

Oddly - if you follow Rasmussen in Ohio all the way back to September 12 - and maybe further - he's had it a 1 point race in ever poll since then. Just noticed that.

Following assumptions:

1. Absentee Ballots figures from LS
2. Skewed Polls giving Obama at least a 2.5 kiss in RCP averages
3. Undecideds breaking for challenger of unpopular incumbent

We know Rasmussen is not using his own party affiliation numbers nationally - rather a D+3 Model. I don't know what he's using within individual states - so it's hard to know what the current Ohio Rasmussen skew is, if any. Maybe someone with a subscription can comment on Rasmussen state internals?

FYI here's latest RCP for Ohio ...

[snarkytart]

There’s noway Romney wins the popular vote by a few points or more and lose the EV. Not for a Republican.
The reason a D can do that is states like heavily populate and very blue California.

[Arthurio]

Right now my sense is that Obama will indeed lose the popular vote by at least a few %, yet narrowly squeak out enough EVs to win.

Theoretically possible, but utterly without historical precedent.

[JediJones]

Unfortunately, I can’t see PA going red. So I’m not sure where R-R is going to make up the EV shortfall.

There are a few ways, but only a few.

1. PA
2. MI
2. NV, IA and NH
3. NV, IA and 1 EV from Maine
4. WI and ANY one of the above states

In a way it shows Romney's pollsters may have had a sense of where things were going as far back as the Ryan pick. Picking up Wisconsin could be a BIG help if they lose Ohio. And it turns out they didn't need Rubio to get Florida. I think they need to hit WI, NV and IA hard, hard, hard.

After McCain/Palin bombed badly in PA even though even Rendell thought McCain had a great chance here, I think they're better off looking for other states. Plus it just makes more sense to campaign for smaller chunks of EVs than the one big chunk in PA. Because of winner-take-all rules. A miss in PA means losing the whole chunk, but missing a smaller chunk out of a few smaller states is not necessarily death if you win most of the chunks.

[fortheDeclaration]

Ohio is not a lost cause, that is nonsense.

[fortheDeclaration]

If Romney has a few % lead in the popular vote, he will win the EV vote.

[HotHunt]

When that socialist thug, Hugo Chavez, of Venezuela, that communist dictator, Fidel Castro, of Cuba, that autocratic strong arm ruler, Vladimir Putin, of Russia, that crazy president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, of the leading terrorist country in the world, Iran, the leftist UN and the Communist Party of the USA all endorse Barack Obama for president, that’s all I need to know to NOT vote for him in November. Birds of a feather, flock together, as they say.

[fortheDeclaration]

Ohio is going to go for Romney with a comfortable margin.

I see this like the WI recall when it was called a dead heat and it turned out to be an easy GOP win.

The GOP get out the vote will be the difference.

[1035rep]

“Agree with Caddell, I think OH is a lost cause as well.”

Caddell didn’t say he thought it was a lost cause.

[JediJones]

Get 49% in PA (20 EV) and you lose the election. Get 49% out of WI, NV, IA and NH (26 EV total), and you could win. You could even win with just 30% of the vote from those states, assuming you get 51% in WI and NH, and lose the others totally. That’s why it makes more sense to campaign for EVs in smaller chunks rather than eyeing a single big prize. It takes less overall votes to get you over the threshold.

I think Romney is going to be back in dangerous territory after Monday. His campaign did poorly when it spoke directly to the public on the regional campaign trail. The debates are the only thing that saved him. We’ve had 2 and a half weeks of debates. After tomorrow we’ll have 2 weeks of no debates. That’s obviously enough time for one side to change the momentum of the race.

Romney’s probably going to go back into play-it-safe mode when he should probably be getting on every TV show out there, no matter how hostile, and continuing to make his case forcefully and confrontationally if necessary, on a national media level. That’s the only style of campaigning that’s worked for him so far.

[JediJones]

The GOP get out the vote will be the difference.

The type of voters that love Obama ONLY vote in presidential elections or in primaries where Obama's on the ticket. It's not reliable to compare to 2010 or to a special election. Not to mention, polls did show Walker ahead in the recall leading up to it. It was pretty clear to both sides that Walker was going to win that one once his opponent had been picked, although I think you're right that the margin of victory was bigger than expected.

[9YearLurker]

I think it’s interesting that Caddell says the same thing Dick Morris said earlier in the week: the ad-saturated swing states don’t move easily, and some of the now close, but less traditionally battleground, states may now have more potential for Romney because they could respond better to more advertising and outreach in the last couple of weeks.

We know that the Romney campaign has poured late resources into PA, but I don’t know about the other states.

[Utmost Certainty]

PA, OH, and WI will most likely fall to Obama—after that, all he has to do is pick up either NV, CO, or IA, and it’s game over.