Rasmussen Daily Swing State: R: 50% O:46%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/21/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[SoftwareEngineer]

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

[SoftwareEngineer]

Unchanged from yesterday. Good news!

[ScaniaBoy]

Yippee-ki-yay!

[tatown]

You beat me again. Lol!

[scottinoc]

Steady as she goes. Praying that the “cake is baked”, but we gotta work harder than ever the next two weeks.

[SoftwareEngineer]

Ooh! My apologies. I thought you were “oot and aboot”. I waited till 9:05

[Stosh]

Has Pennsylvania always been in Ragmuffin’s “swing” category?

[lodi90]

“Steady as she goes. Praying that the “cake is baked”, but we gotta work harder than ever the next two weeks.”

Hopefully Big Bird baked the cake. These are serious times and the dims continue with dribble. But after Roberts gift wrapped obamacare, I am not going to take anything to the bank just yet.

[paul in cape]

“Green Jobs Are Dead, and Al Qeada Is Alive!”

[paul in cape]

“Vote Romney/Ryan, Because 8 Years Of Carter/Obama Are Enough!”

[GrandJediMasterYoda]

Don't forget though: Obama still could win with electoral votes so the nightmare is still quite alive.

[SoftwareEngineer]

To the best of my knowledge, yes

[TornadoAlley3]

http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/viewart/20121020/NEWS01/310200012/GOP-voters-flock-early-ballots

[STJPII]

I realize we cut the differential from 14 to 7 but I was hoping to be ahead....

[Jeff Chandler]

[TornadoAlley3]

We show up H U G E on election day. Enthusiasm gap is ours. Obama may be winning with same groups as in 08, but he is down in those %ages. Further down with groups he lost.

[apillar]

I think we can now safely say that Obama got zilch in the way of a bump from his media declared “victory” in the second debate. We have had four complete polling days after the debate and the numbers are essentially unchanged or even a slight bump for Romney.

[TornadoAlley3]

[apillar]

The problem for Obama is that with just over two weeks left, the pool of undecideds in growing smaller and smaller every day, and once an undecided “declares” for a candidate it is very difficult to get them to switch. With Romney sitting at 50% in Rasmussen and 51% in Gallup, Obama will have to convince declared Romney voters to switch. This is not an easy task because once somebody “comes out” and tells their spouse, friends, coworkers (and pollsters) that they are voting one way, it gets very difficult to get them to change.

[TornadoAlley3]

Since 2008, Obama Down the Most Among Whites, Middle-Aged Voters, and Southerners

Compared with 2008, Obama’s support is down the most among voters in the South, 30- to 49-year-olds, those with four-year college degrees, postgraduates, men, and Protestants. He has also slipped modestly among whites, Easterners, women, and Catholics.

Obama’s support is roughly the same now as in 2008 among 18- to 29-year-olds, seniors, nonwhites, and voters in the West and Midwest; however, he has not gained support among any major group compared with 2008.

More specifically, here are the key changes in Obama’s support by group since 2008:

Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.
Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.
Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.
White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.
Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.

Bottom Line

With three weeks to go in the campaign, Obama appears to be losing momentum, and now trails Romney by four percentage points among likely voters. That contrasts with his seven-point win over McCain in 2008. Given this shift in overall voter preferences, it follows that Obama will have lost support among at least some subgroups of the electorate. Those losses are not proportionate across all subgroups, however. He shed the most support among Southerners, college graduates, postgraduates, 30- to 49-year-olds, men, and Protestants. He also lost a moderate amount of support among whites, Easterners, women, and Catholics — while not building new support elsewhere.

http://www.gallup.com

[erod]

Mittens laying the smacketh-down on the Kenyan Commie.