"The party ID is Dem +8 (Dem 42, Rep 34, Ind 20). This compares to 2008 of D +8 (Dem 39, Rep: 31, Ind 30) and 2004 of R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind: 25). A very aggressive turnout mirroring the 2008 level which increasingly is less likely as we approach election day. Additionally Independents look light based on general voter sentiment where identifications with Independents grows while the two major parties lose support. Despite the Obama lead, Team Romney should feel very good about this poll."
I am getting sick and f**king tired of every single Fox poll being so favorable to that POS Marxist.
“Team Romney should feel very good about this poll.”
I agree, it will not be dims +8 this time around. I would say Romney is either tied or somewhat ahead. The trend is in his favor which is very good. One does not want to peak to soon.
Enthusiasm gap = +12% in favor of GOP.
The Dip is dipping.
D+8 and O at 46%? Romney will win OH.
an improvement from last night...
“Incredibly Romney leads among Independents by 24-points, 52 to 28. If Independents support Mitt Romney by anywhere near this margin, he will carry Ohio with room to spare.”- Battlegroundwatch
I was just depressed looking at intrade comments and how confident some of them are in Obama carrying Ohio. However,this poll has me jazzed up again with that huge independent league.
Fox has Obama leading the early vote by 20 percent as well, where do they get these numbers?
Obama will get no more than 35% of the popular vote and will not carry even one state. He may carry non states like DC, PR or even Guam, but not one state and no more than 35% of the popular vote.
The only way obama can win is if one of two things happens,: Either Christ raptures His church or obama suspends elections and declares martial law.
Now I shall go back to lucking. Thank you all very much.
Again, I think using 08 is just silly. So far, looks like ZEro has a 7 point lead coming out of early voting. In 08 he had 20, won by just over 4.5. That means that if this holds up, Romney would win by 9. Just sayin’.
Again, WHO THE HELL is Nate Silver and why does he carry so much weight when it comes to polls? AND why is he tearing apart the Gallup poll just to suit the RATS fears....WHO IS HE and why is he of importance??
So, with a +8 Dem sample, when it’ll really be a +1 GOP on election day, Romney is actually ahead 51-38 with 11% undecided. With 75% of the undecideds breaking towards the challenger, that means Romney wins Ohio 59-41.
Maybe we’re worrying too much. From the beginning, Mitt Romney has run his campaign like a marathon, conserving hundreds of millions of his campaign dollars for the final push in the final weeks, while Obama has spent most of his campaign money as soon as it’s come in.
The current polls in Ohio are being conducted before Mitt Romney’s airforce has come in to carpet bomb the state with ads.
We’re also not taking into account the full implications of the significantly lower requests by Democrats for absentee ballots in large Democratic centers like Cuyahoga County compared to 2008.
If Democrats are not applying for as many absentee ballots as they did in 2008, it likely means they’re fed up with Obama and don’t intend to vote for him. But there also must be many Democratic voters who are similarly fed up with Obama and for that reason intend to vote for Romney. The situation concerning the decrease in Democratic ballot requests is better for Republicans that it at first appears.
--via Drudge