Posted on 10/19/2012 9:54:32 AM PDT by Arthurio
Today’s presidential tracking poll from Rasmussen shows a two-point gain for Barack Obama, bringing him into a tie with Mitt Romney at 48/48. At first blush, that looks as though Obama may have righted the ship after the second debate, but Rasmussen warns that the most recent surveys show momentum in the opposite direction:
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
According to Rass number, Obama got a bump.
“According to Rass number, Obama got a bump”
Actually, no. The bump was pre-debate sampling.
Here’s what they reported:
“In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage. Tomorrow morning (Saturday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the second debate.”
Obama did not maintain over 50 percent in the polls. For incumbent that is not good because the undecided should have made up their minds if they like the past four years. The only issue for Romney’s slight edge (only 2 percent) is how does that translate into electoral college votes? It is possible to win popular by 2 or less points but lose the election via electoral college votes. Based on the electoral college map, if Romney takes PA or OH, odds go gainst Obama. If Obama takes PA (only one poll show Romney by 5) and OH, Romney loses. The converse for PA and OH means Obama loses. Right now PA leans Obama and OH leans Romney. That leaves IA, CO, NV and NH to determine who is next POTUS.
Anyone with any real intention of voting has long ago made up their minds so the numbers won’t change much either way.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.