Posted on 10/01/2012 3:54:57 AM PDT by blam
JOHN HUSSMAN: We Are Already In Recession, And The Economists Just Don't Know It Yet
Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 1, 2012, 5:00 AM
In his latest weekly letter, investor John Hussman reiterates his belief that we are already in recession.
In regard to a U.S. recession, keep in mind that the consensus of economic forecasters – not to mention central bankers - has never recognized the start of a recession in real-time, largely because their assessments typically revolve around a “stream of anecdotes” approach that treats each new economic report with equal weight, without distinguishing leading/lagging and upstream/downstream structure. For example, we’ve noted that real consumption growth and real income lead new factory orders, which lead employment. Yet observers have already largely dismissed the soft data on income, consumption and factory orders thanks to last week’s single outlier on new weekly unemployment claims.
As for the payroll report this Friday, we fully expect that September payroll growth will ultimately be reported as a significant loss in jobs. The main wrinkle, as I’ve noted frequently, is that the “real-time” employment figures in the early months of a recession are often hundreds of thousands of jobs off from where they are ultimately revised (see the economic notes in Late Stage, High Risk). So while Friday’s employment report seems likely to be disappointing, the data tends to be heavily revised, and even the seasonal adjustments amount to hundreds of thousands of jobs, so our expectations for a negative figure may or may not be realized in the initial report.
Last week, the second quarter GDP growth figure was revised down to 1.3%, from the previous estimate of 1.7%. Durable goods orders plunged at a 13.2% rate in August,
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Click here to read Hussman's full report.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
"Marc Faber is still convinced that there's a 100 percent chance of a global recession and that stocks are due for a big sell-off."
Oh hey.
Lets dump trillions into the economy and prop it up to make it look good.
No nevermind that as soon as we stop dumping money the economy collapses.
That will be Bush’s/Romney’s fault
The end will come when the world asks:
Are dollars money?
The world has been an economic basket case for a long time.
Using a 6 year olds math ability it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to subtract the deficit spending(which goes into GDP figure for some bogus reason) from GDP to see we have been at negative 8 percent for three years running.
The economists know that the recession is back,they just won’t talk about it until after the election.
Many do know it - but they won't admit it until Obama is out of office and they can pin it on his successor.
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