Posted on 09/29/2012 4:21:28 PM PDT by LS
Edited on 09/29/2012 9:34:42 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
All: Go to the spreadsheet. Looks like some of the drive-bys are concerned enough to try and "caveat" us!!
His first point is bogus. You're going to tell me that people who actually voted in PRIMARIES (i.e., the hard core) "aren't particularly informative" as a number?
Can't sneak his second point by us: these numbers represent not MAILED REQUEST FORMS BUT MAILED ABSENTEE BALLOT REQUESTS!!!
Point three is absolutely RIGHT, and that's what apparently is really scaring them, is that we will be able to track this stuff even better.
Does anyone else have this same reaction, or am I off base? I smell fear here.
As for new updates, Franklin CO now maintains its 5.5% GOP lead; Hamilton a large GOP lead edging on 2:1.
Does ANYONE think they would bother doing this if these numbers weren’t destroying a template somewhere? What professor in the world has a stake in how accurate the polls are? What does he care? HEHEHE.
If you are not aware, Ohio does not truly have party registration, it is
simply a record of the last party primary a voter participated in. For a number of reasons then, a comparison of 2008 and 2012 “party” is not particularly informative. Another important change is that all registered
voters have been mailed an absentee ballot request form - something I applaud SoS Husted for doing since the larger Democratic counties were the ones that tended to do this in 2010. As a result of that change from 2008, I expect mail ballot requests to increase. Finally, Ohio considered in-person
early voting to be a form of mail balloting in their reported statistics. The numbers are going to change considerably once in-person early voting
starts, particularly closer to Election Day when more people (particularly Democrats) tend to vote in-person early.
For these reasons, I do not think the absentee ballot stats are particularly informative at this early stage as to what will happen in Ohio, much like I do not think the wildly pro-Democratic Iowa statistics are informative as to
what will happen in that state. I suppose if you want to do a better apples to apples comparison for Ohio, you might run the 2008 numbers for the same
point in time prior to the 2008 election. That might give us some sense of the overall level of early voting to be expected in the state. But I would
again caution about drawing inferences about “party” as I have seen some do with your numbers. I do not think these numbers tell us the Ohio polling is
incorrect. We need more information before we can draw that conclusion.
Yep. This is the caveat. Check out my responses.
A possible reason the last primary a voter participated in might not be his party is Democrat mischief in the Ohio Republican primary of this year. Democrats tried to get Santorum to win the Ohio primary (and a few others), just as they tried (successfully) to get Akin nominated in Missouri.
Is the party line that Clinton won more regular delegates than Obama because of Republicans?
They have a lot to worry about. An incumbent president with approval under 50% this close to an election is not something that should make them confident.
Don’t believe in a lot of “Operation Chaos” in 2008. I know Rush touted it, but I don’t buy it.
So, shall I say we’re doomed?
Eh. Sure, why not?
BTTT
-snip-
The CNN/ORC International poll of registered and likely voters released Tuesday shows likely voters favoring Obama by 52 percent to 46 percent over Romney -- evidence, pundits said, of a post-convention bump for the president.
But a figure buried in the report shows Romney leading Obama among likely independent voters,54 percent to 40 percent.
Both Democrats and Republicans believe independents will be critical to deciding the outcome of the election, in part because they make up a growing part of the electorate and are considered up for grabs because they fluctuate in their political preferences from one election to the next.
"That's a significant lead," said pollster Ron Faucheux.
It was the independent vote that helped Obama win the 2008 election. He won 52 percent of independents, compared with 44 percent for McCain. Independents comprised about 33 percent of the overall vote in 2008.
"If Romney can beat Obama among independents this time, he can win the election."
A poll conducted two weeks ago by Democracy Corps showed Romney with a 15-point lead among independents, 53 percent to 38 percent.
Romney also appears to have an advantage over Obama when it comes to voter enthusiasm.
The CNN/ORC International poll showed Republicans leading Democrats among the most enthusiastic voters, 62 percent to 56 percent. The enthusiasm level helps determine which party will show up in greater numbers to vote.
"This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day," Romney campaign pollster Neil Newhouse said in a Monday memo aimed at downplaying reports of an Obama bounce."
-end snip-
We see the liberal main stream pollsters are under polling Indies, over polling Dems, and again, under polling Repubs.
Th liberal main stream media are very desperate to fool the US voters over the next 5 to 6 weeks to push Obama over the top.
Can’t sneak his second point by us: these numbers represent not MAILED REQUEST FORMS BUT MAILED ABSENTEE BALLOTS!!!
Note how wrong he gets this simple point.
His first point is bogus, and his third point is good for us cause we can track.
Yeah I saw. Now, look at our thread on the OH spreadsheet of absentees. Go to the actual spreadsheet and see the caveat (It is reprinted in its entirety in comment #2).
THEY ARE SCARED. I’m starting to think this is indeed a Dan Rather moment.
Doh. I was typing so fast I left out “REQUESTS.”
“MAILED REQUEST FORMS BUT MAILED ABSENTEE BALLOT REQUESTS”
Yeah the pollsters are running scared.
This to me is like the middle ages, only the Priest spoke Latin. and the books were in Latin, now the peasants have learned Latin on the internet and have spreadsheets and the High Priests of polling are acting very defensive telling the peasants all the reason they can’t see the books. ;)
Excellent excellent report. I too smell fear with michael mcdonald. Money quote for me is the polls aren’t wrong, yet.
I did some research online on this topic. Is this website wrong?
http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx
You can change parties at primary time, but otherwise it sounds like it “sticks” with you? You don’t even have to change affiliations to vote at primary time, but you can be challenged on it.
Not that many OH people are independents. I really doubt that primary turnout is high if it’s a clock that more or less resets every year.
Fantastic example.
The "dirty trick" of having Dems register as Rs in an "Operation Chaos" overlooks one teeny point : the numbers we see are all going the same way, even in heavily R counties. You might explain that Ds are down in Franklin, but that on election dat they will "really" go back home but hat wouldn't explain higher R turnout in counties that were redder in 04, got bluer in 08, and now are back to red.
I appreciate the yeoman’s work you are doing re Ohio, as I’m sure many FReepers are. There is no doubt in my mind this is a harbinger of what will happen on Election Day.
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