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Reminder/Flashback:Flashback: Gallup Had Carter Up 4 Points Over Ronald Reagan in September 1980
The Gateway Pundit ^ | Sept 8, 2012 | Jim Hoff

Posted on 09/22/2012 8:27:10 PM PDT by Innovative

Back in 1980 Gallup had Jimmy Carter up over Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid to late September... And, Carter was up 8 points in October. In fact there was a published Gallup poll showing Carter up six among likely voters in a poll conducted Oct. 24 to 27.

Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states.

(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: carter; elections; obama; reagan; romney
The Dem controlled Media is trying to discourage and suppress Romney-voters by making it seem that an Obama win is inevitable.

Don't let them. Be sure to vote, not just in battleground states -- Romney needs to win both the electoral and popular votes.

1 posted on 09/22/2012 8:27:15 PM PDT by Innovative
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To: Innovative

People, Romney ain’t no Reagan. Reagan won California and New York. Different time.


2 posted on 09/22/2012 8:32:10 PM PDT by timlot
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To: timlot

The demographic changes have been brutal for the GOP. There’s just no getting away from it.


3 posted on 09/22/2012 8:35:09 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: timlot
People, Romney ain’t no Reagan. Reagan won California and New York. Different time.

Yeah, he won CA and NY, and the polls had him 4 down in Late sept...Seems they were off by a bunch more then, were they not?

4 posted on 09/22/2012 8:35:39 PM PDT by going hot (Happiness is a momma deuce)
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To: timlot

Exactly. This is a useless comparison. Demographics is destiny. Things have changed to an extent we now have a different nation.


5 posted on 09/22/2012 8:45:05 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Innovative.


6 posted on 09/22/2012 8:47:59 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Steelfish

Yup.....some people are just not grasping what 40 years of open borders have done to the GOP election base. We have lost CA. CO & NV are purple, at best. VA is falling away & NC is a struggle.


7 posted on 09/22/2012 8:53:35 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: timlot

Yeah, Romney isn’t Reagan but Obama is WORSE than Carter. Most of the Reagan voters were NOT for Reagan, but against Carter. Reagan success was a pleasant surprise for most voters which explains ‘84. Daddy Bush screwed that up.


8 posted on 09/22/2012 8:55:41 PM PDT by Wingy (Don't blame me. I voted for the chick. I hope to do so again.)
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To: Innovative

The posters making points about demographics have part of the story but the other factor here is the negative shift in the veracity levels of the polling organizations. Think about just the concept of “push polls” — those did not exist, to any great extent, in 1980.


9 posted on 09/22/2012 8:59:20 PM PDT by T-Bird45 (It feels like the seventies, and it shouldn't.)
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To: Innovative

Four years and a week ago, McCain was up by three, for a more recent example.


10 posted on 09/22/2012 9:16:53 PM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: Innovative

An excellent book on the 1980 election is Rendevous With Destiny by Craig Shirley. Carter did have a slight lead in some polls up until about 10 days before the election when Carter and Reagan debated at Reagan won the debate clearly with the american people even if much of the media was pretty convinced that Carter had won.


11 posted on 09/22/2012 9:17:17 PM PDT by fkabuckeyesrule (Lets institute SARAH-ia law in America!)
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To: Innovative; Gilbo_3; timlot; LongWayHome; Steelfish
Wow, talk about irrelevant historic facts, too many differences to list. You really believe they compare?

I woke up after the 2006 midterms and have not been surprised yet since.

12 posted on 09/22/2012 9:32:00 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Romney is still a liberal. Just watch him. (Obama-ney Care ))
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To: Gilbo_3
I see the “Threads that show that Republicans are winning this election big” ping list has been pinged to this thread : #6
13 posted on 09/22/2012 9:33:51 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Romney is still a liberal. Just watch him. (Obama-ney Care ))
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To: timlot

Nope, the real difference between now and Reagan era is that dependents on food stamps, unemployment, disability etc. are 5 or 6 times larger.


14 posted on 09/22/2012 9:37:31 PM PDT by entropy12
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To: LongWayHome

And TX is now fast becoming or has already become a majority “non-white.” When TX becomes a swing state just like VA, FL, NC, and MO before it, then all is lost. No, this is not the same nation of the Reagan era and any comparisons to the Reagan-Carter polling data are just fanciful and irrelevant.


15 posted on 09/22/2012 9:46:51 PM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Steelfish

All these new immigrants are not buying what the GOP is selling....most of them are poor, can’t read or write & on & on. A lot just go right on welfare. Texas will be gone by the 2020 cycle, if not before, along with Arizonia.


16 posted on 09/22/2012 10:01:26 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: All

Can’t believe the negativity on this thread — go ahead, so-called conservatives, just stay home, don’t even try to defeat Obama and be proud that you will have contributed to Obama’s reelection and the destruction of the US as we know it!


17 posted on 09/22/2012 10:11:55 PM PDT by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: Innovative

I’m voting for R/R & think they are going to win a tight race.....that said: there are some real demographic shifts going on that can’t be ignored. We are having trouble defeating Obama because of these demographic shifts & it will only get worse in the coming years.


18 posted on 09/22/2012 10:23:23 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: Innovative

The media back then was nothing compared to what we have today. I still believe Romney will win despite them, but comparisons like this are apples and oranges..


19 posted on 09/22/2012 10:23:34 PM PDT by cardinal4 (RageBoy for DNC Chair!)
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To: Innovative

Just wonder if at any time in the past 30-40 years has the “media” or polls had the Republican candidate up?
The reason I ask is I am not sure that we can beleive the polls. Obama is the worst President America has had in the past 100 years. He is destroying our economy, he is hastening the decline of our societies morals, he has no plan for the future, no plan for today and zero leadership ability. Yet he is tied or ahead of the Republican candidate.
Any candidate should be up 30-40 points over Obama!
Is this some scenario that if Romney wins the media can constant challenge him because he cheated or voting irregularities etc? Cuase surely he should not have won because Obama was ahead so much in the polls...


20 posted on 09/22/2012 10:43:49 PM PDT by SECURE AMERICA (Where can I sign up for the New American Revolution and the Crusades 2012?)
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To: Innovative

Where are all those people who oppose Obamacare?


21 posted on 09/22/2012 11:32:13 PM PDT by lilypad
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To: Ingtar

Not according to Gallup.

McCain was never ahead of Obama in the national tracking polls.


22 posted on 09/23/2012 12:54:35 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Innovative

They are not conservatives. Check e signup dates. The commies are here.


23 posted on 09/23/2012 12:57:58 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: Innovative

The media purpose is to 1) discourage Romney voters with poor poll numbers, and 2) encourage Obama voters with good poll numbers. Conservative jounalists need to STOP wasting valuable ink talking about poll numbers and START talking about the issues. And conservatives in general need to ignore the polls.

BTW-If Carter was 4 points over Reagan at this time, one has to wonder where Romney is with being tied in the polls.


24 posted on 09/23/2012 2:57:47 AM PDT by HarleyD
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To: All

Of course I agree you can’t compare Romney with Reagen and there have been demographic shifts as others have pointed out. However, I think the main thing to take away from looking back at the Carter vs Reagan polls is that the polls can never be trusted. I believe most polls are understating support for Romney by 3-5%.


25 posted on 09/23/2012 4:07:34 AM PDT by Laura722
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To: fkabuckeyesrule

Rendezvous


26 posted on 09/23/2012 4:29:37 AM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: Innovative
Gallup's poll yesterday was 47-47 and Rasmussen was 46-46 yesterday. Historically, the "undecideds" have tended to break for the challenger. (Morris says "all" but I'd be more conservative.) Romney is no Reagan, but Zero is is worse shape than Bush was in 2004, and that one was a 2% election. As it stands now, it looks like the mirror image of 2004 to me. As challengers go, I think of Romney, not as another Reagan, but as a John Kerry who doesn't look and sound like a complete doofus.

I think that a lot of potential Romney voters haven't heard Romney except for selected, brief sound bites, and if the Obama campaign and MSM is to be believed, Romney has hooves and a pointed tail. At the debates, many will see that he doesn't for the first time. How has Zero performed in debates in the past? Without a teleprompter? My impression is that he's said some pretty dumb stuff when he's unscripted.

The Obama campaign should be in full-fledged panic mode right now. If they don't seem to be, it's because Democrats can lie much more effectively than Republicans can lie, and because they have a lot of help from the MSM.

27 posted on 09/23/2012 4:34:10 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Innovative

If 2010 was any kind of indication, Romney will win, not in a landslide, but by as much as Zero did during the advent of the latest Dark Ages.


28 posted on 09/23/2012 4:48:43 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: Innovative

True that the MSM is trying to discourage the center and right for voting for Romney. If you look at the most recent polls, it is not working.

Given all the comparisons to previous election polls like here in 1980. I wonder how accurate these polls were? Did they poll adults or registered voters and did they over sample dems? If someone like Rasmussen was polling back then, what would the polls be like?


29 posted on 09/23/2012 5:10:32 AM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: Innovative

True that the MSM is trying to discourage the center and right for voting for Romney. If you look at the most recent polls, it is not working.

Given all the comparisons to previous election polls like here in 1980. I wonder how accurate these polls were? Did they poll adults or registered voters and did they over sample dems? If someone like Rasmussen was polling back then, what would the polls be like?


30 posted on 09/23/2012 5:10:32 AM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: BarnacleCenturion

I was looking at the RCP averages. Gallup was near the bottom in accuracy and has been for a long while.


31 posted on 09/23/2012 10:38:19 AM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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