University of Colorado Prediction Model: Romney Wins 320 - 218

National Polls ^ | 9/7/12 | staff

[LucianOfSamasota]

If you're following the electoral college predictions on this site, you'd see that all of the major analysts say Obama will win in November.

But one model by the University of Colorado (released in late August) projects Romney to win in a landslide so I wanted to share that here for your review.

From the Colorado.edu news release

The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

According to their analysis, ... Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent...

From theDC:

Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight still projects a likely Obama victory.

[LucianOfSamasota]

Interesting prediction from a pretty liberal university.

[bigbob]

Wow...no kidding, CU profs haul bums off the Pearl Street Mall to polling places, so this is kinda hugh...

Don’t tell those DUmmies who are shaking their piggy-banks to get more money to send to Obummer!

[Col Frank Slade]

Any idea what kind of track record this Univ has in polling ?

[Ingtar]

Now that polling shows momentum for Romney in Ohio and Iowa, my weighted method has it as a 269 tie today. The direction of movement is toward Romney as about a month ago it had things 320 - 218 the other way. One caveat: since I am pessimistic about Romney, he is quite possible further ahead already.

[dps.inspect]

All things being equal (under normal circumstances) if the DNC/ Obama show couldn’t fill the Panther’s Stadium (Bank of America Stadium for all of you who feel the need to correct everybody) then how the hell is he going to pull off a win in Nov? I know, I know... with Marxist’s, all things are possible (sorry God)...

[MNDude]

do they have a link to past election predictions?

[erod]

FWIW I remember hearing somewhere that this poll has accurately predicted every president since 1980.

[Perdogg]

I have heard they have gotten every election right since 1980 with the exception of 1.

They are even predicting Romney gets 1 EV from ME.

[erod]

From the source:

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

[kara37]

They have been correct on every election since 1980. I think they even predicted that Bush would win the election, but Gore would win the popular vote.

[Col Frank Slade]

Thanks I hope they’re right again.

[LS]

Interesting also (I think this is what I read) that the Gallup poll just prior to the conventions has predicted every winner, period. (Romney was up one).

[OrangeHoof]

The CU thing is a computer program, not a polling result. It basically looks at the economy of past election years and compares them to this year and extrapolates the results.

The problem I have with their theory is that FDR was re-elected in 1936 and 1940 despite a crappy economy.

[ZULU]

BIGOTS!!! They are BIGOTS I tell you!!!!! Obama is the ONE. He DESERVES to win!!!!!
(Sarcasm)

[matthew fuller]

Just for reference- (Intrade)

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
57.9%
CHANCE

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
41.9%
CHANCE

I’m personally prejudiced toward the University model.
MF

[ScottinVA]

What gives me pause is this model shows Romney taking Pennsylvania. Short of a miracle, I don`t see any way that happens. For Presidential elections, it`s pretty firmly locked down for the dems.

[goldstategop]

The Intrade prediction model hasn’t been wrong yet. It correctly predicted Obama’s win in 2008.

Its far more reliable than any poll since while people can lie to pollster about whom they’ll vote for, they don’t lie about where they put their money.

Material interest is a more powerful predictor of people’s intentions than sentiment, which is inherently changeable.

[ScottinVA]

Really...Minnesota.??? That`s long-ago conquered territory. No friggin` way.

[goldstategop]

The debates are going to decide the election outcome. Obama’s odds look less favorable than they did before the Democratic Convention but he is still the incumbent and Americans are reluctant to vote out a sitting President.

That has happened only twice in the last generation.

[Biggirl]

One of those times was 1980.

But I sense the floodgates have started to be opened up when one Clint Eastwood talked about an “empty chair”.

[Crimson Elephant]

I just cannot see what people who predict Obama the favorite are seeing. There is NO WAY he wins Fl, NC, and Indiana again, and Ohio and VA are clearly very close...so there is no reasoning to make Obama a clear EC favorite.

[pogo101]

Hey, maybe here in California, we’ll hold Obama under 65%!!

[Future Snake Eater]

Intrade also had Obamacare being struck down by SCOTUS by a pretty wide margin. As the decision loomed, the gap closed pretty quickly, but it was still wrong on that one, and that was a BIG one.

[thingumbob]

Even with the keystone pipeline debacle and the EPA fight against the coal industry courtesy of the O’bummer administration?

[WalterSkinner]

..the best scenario for Obama gives him around 200 EVs--I don't think it will be that close

CREATE YOUR OWN EV MAP

[kingattax]

this model has a 100% accuracy record for the last 32 years.

it even correctly predicted the 2000 outcome that Bush would lose the popular vote while winning the electoral college.

[DrDude]

I have been following closely and use the create a map on RCP. I have been adjusting since Romney locked up the Nomination. I believe you are very close. I have the best case scenario for BO at 221 EV’s. Just my thoughts.
Intrade isn’t really that accurate. It is legal gambling.

[Poison Pill]

The Intrade prediction model hasn’t been wrong yet. It correctly predicted Obama’s win in 2008.

It's generally accurate at the time of the event. In this case on election day. It was dead wrong on the SCOTUS Obamacare decision.

[ShasheMac]

Hey, no more worries, it’s all over, I just made ‘em all red! No need to thank me.

[Leto]

Intrade is also a small enough market that a campaign can buy the desired result with pocket change, I prefer the economic model.

[Reily]

He will NOT win Virginia.

The novelty act is old now, skittles did not rain down from heaven. There is little enthusiasm among the “usual suspects” now. There is much more on the GOP side in spite of the fact its Romney. Romney is running a much more professional campaign here in Northern Virginia then McCain did. It's visible and aggressive. I have yet to see a Zero Zomba going door to door in my neighborhood. That was an almost weekly occurrence in 2008.

[matthew fuller]

I’ve never invested any money there, but I do consider them as important, and valid as most polls.

[matthew fuller]

Current Intrade odds-

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
57.3%

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
42.5%

[Future Snake Eater]

They can definitely be pretty accurate, but they’re far from the final word like some folks tend to think. Up until the Obamacare decision, I probably would’ve counted them as practically infallible.

[Thickman]

InTrade is much more difficult to participate in since the law was passed ot allowing U.S. citizens to use credit cards. It takes several days for checks or wire transfers to clear. I quit using the site - I assume others have as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if money were being “invested” (read: George Soros) just to skew the numbers in hopes of influencing the conventional wisdom.

[1035rep]

Mitt Romney’s vice president July 2012

Paul Ryan Intrade chances: 4.1%

Rob Portman Intrade chances: 32%