Skip to comments.This Is How China Is Going To Rebound
Posted on 09/04/2012 7:38:16 PM PDT by blam
This Is How China Is Going To Rebound
Lucy Hornby, Reuters
Sep. 4, 2012, 7:35 PM
The last time China's vast manufacturing sector had conditions like those in August it was March 2009 and the economy was about to rebound from the global financial crisis.
This time around analysts are not so certain a clear recovery for the major global growth engine will come anytime soon.
In fact, two purchasing managers' indexes showed new orders are falling, adding to other evidence that suggests a slide in economic growth for the world's second-biggest economy is deepening, pushing back expectations for when a rebound may occur.
"It's quite clear we have a pretty rotten industrial cycle coming on. I don't see it getting a whole lot worse... but I don't expect them to get back for a long, long time," said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of GK Dragonomics in Beijing.
"I see things bouncing along at the bottom of the cycle."
An HSBC purchasing managers' index released on Monday fell to 47.6 in August, its lowest reading since March 2009 and a similar survey by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed the manufacturing sector shrinking for the first time since November.
A reading below 50 points to contraction, while one above 50 indicates expansion.
Still, the HSBC PMI adds to other figures that suggest the economy is revisiting 2009. Industrial output growth in July rose at its weakest pace since 2009 and exports were rising at their lowest trajectory since that year, excluding a fall in January.
The Shanghai stock market has slumped almost 18 percent from this year's highs to levels last seen in March 2009.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
1.) When was the last time that China had a significant economic recession?
2.) If China’s recent economic boom has been asymptotic, then will their resultant recession be significant?
way too many assumptions
China will rebound when it’s customers (us) rebound
It is time to start wondering whether we in fact want China to rebound, under the conditions China currently considers to be “rebound”?
That is to say, China grows by stealing everyone else’s markets.
If that is the case, I say to heck with that. Let China fail, if China’s goal is to cause everyone else to fail.
Which will it be China?
We’ve been pretty understanding. Over-understanding in fact.
How about playing some of those good vibes back our direction.
Europe is a bigger customer than the US.
Then China is in a crap sandwich
i think china will be recovering oh some time after japan does
Electronic data interchange (EDI)
Packaging and product quality are tanking as well.
In other words... You are dead on correct. They live and die by our economy.
They have been entire cities for “stimulus” even though their citizens can’t afford to live in them, talk about a bubble. That is the kind of thing that makes their GDP numbers suspect (understatement), you hear of COSCO shipping containers abandoned by the thousands because they aren’t needed.
A lot of the citizens of China have just begun to get used to a growing economy, a crash back to the levels of the Cold War will cause major upheavels. I think the Politburo knows this. Too bad they went Keynesian instead of free market. It’s going to come back to bite them.