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Thanks Fennie.

Obama does not want to intervene militarily before the presidential elections in November, and it is doubtful that he would act afterwards... may believe that the US can live with a nuclear Iran... Mitt Romney... takes a more forceful position, but would probably not have the domestic support necessary to act in the first year of his presidency, if elected, and after that it would be too late.

Iran fights by proxy; the one time the mullahcracy fought a conventional war was when Saddam's Iraq invaded the Iranian oil fields, claiming them as Arab land.

And Iran's good at it.

Right now Iran serves as the major distraction and diversion; they've armed the Hizzies in Lebanon and support protests and/or armed uprisings in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, various other spots in Asia and Africa.

Hamas and the so-called PA have been charmed away (cut off from other funding) by the Saudis, who supposedly claimed they'd support a US-Israeli mission against Iran, but would shoot down Israeli planes trying to do it solo. The Israelis will not be intimidated by this of course, and have a number of options.

Egypt's new Islamofascist leader has met with the Saudis, has bitched about the Sadat-era treaty with Israel, and has claimed to want closer ties with Iran.

Turkey's not as far off as one might think from joining Syria in the list of failed states. It has no friendly neighbors (not entirely their fault, either) and has alienated its only two stalwart allies -- the US and Israel.

Jordan has had large protests, and though it's easy to forget now, looked like it was headed for regime change around the time Egypt was. Jordan's only reliable neighbor is Israel, with which it has a peace treaty (1994); both Syria and Saudi Arabia wouldn't mind seeing the Hashemite realm erased from world maps, and the Assad dynasty in Syria has illegally withheld part of Jordan's natural water supply. So, Jordan's response has been to make sure Israel has good intel (fell on deaf ears in 1973 though) while publicly acting like the Arab a-holes they consider their brothers.

Israel is going to be attacked both conventionally and unconventionally as soon as Syria has a single, stable regime again. It'll be much better if that never happens.

The Israelis will not be intimidated by this of course, and have a number of options.

The casual tone of many of the the "Attack Iran" conversations on this site are extremely disturbing, at least to me. The military option seems to me to be nowhere near "on the table" for many reasons. To begin with, Iran is larger than Western Europe, making it a much better missile target (for thousands of missiles) than an airplane objective, especially since Israel has no bases within range and would have to refuel over hostile airspace. Even if all the potential targets were known, it would be impossible to prevent immediate missile retaliation against Israel. Iran took a million KIA against Iraq and would not be passive in the face of even an overwhelming attack. In addition, many of the primary "nuclear" targets are underground and doubtless hardened to the point where a pinpoint nuclear attack would probably be the only option. The idea of a limited strike against nuclear plant targets only seems also a non-starter to me.

Any military action against Iran would have to be at the very least, on the scale of a Gulf War III. I sincerely hope Obama is not entertaining any thoughts of an October Surprise in Iran. I'm fairly certain the Israelis aren't.

There is also the usually unspoken issue of the Shiite mindset. Their theology calls for an Armageddon, in which the Earth is to be wiped clean by fire, so that Allah The All Wise can remake it as a Shiite Earthly Paradise, with no bad Muslims (i.e., non-Shiites,) and certainly no Infidels. Defeat does not matter. After all their highest holy day celebrates the loss of the Battle of Karbala and they march in the streets inflicting terrible wounds on themselves until the parade route runs with blood.

You ain't dealing with Presbyterian People from Peoria.