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Economist Richard Duncan: Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral'
Atlanta Journal Constitution ^ | August 10, 2012 | Terry Weiss, Money Morning

Posted on 08/10/2012 3:04:47 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC.

And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it."

And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral."

Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions.

Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included.

However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.

So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?

A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent.

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:

"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible.

"And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."

According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything."

(Excerpt) Read more at moneymorning.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Extended News; Government
KEYWORDS: debt; deficit; economy; spending
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

The site looks like it markets investments and/or investment advice to people concerned about exactly this kind of collapse. That makes me fairly skeptical of the ‘reporting’ aspect of the site.


21 posted on 08/10/2012 4:44:16 AM PDT by expat1000
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To: agere_contra

Evidently your English to Quislingese translator isn’t working this morning. Try some new Chicom batteries.

Meanwhile — How’s that freetraitor Subprime CDO A$$paper digesting?

Did you know that ESAD is a double entente for which the lesser known meaning is that if you do, you will?

Plop plop Fiz Fiz, dirtbag. Bonapetit.


22 posted on 08/10/2012 4:46:45 AM PDT by OldEarlGray (The POTUS is FUBAR until the White Hut is sanitized with American Tea)
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To: pieceofthepuzzle
At the risk of offending any Freepers who may be economists, I just don't think economics is a ‘science’, and that much of the complex modeling and calculating has little predictive value and obscures the very fundamental issues that matter most.

I mostly agree with that. Economics is a science, but it's a soft science. It is the study of human action -- what do people tend to do in a given situation.

You are correct that human behavior cannot be reduced to formulas and equations. The idea is nonsense and is an outgrowth of the socialists' belief that society can be planned and managed more effectively by wise technocrats than by us stupid individuals acting in our own best self-interest.

23 posted on 08/10/2012 4:51:49 AM PDT by BfloGuy (Without economic freedom, no other form of freedom can have material meaning.)
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To: agere_contra
...Protectionism would be the final nail in the coffin. The last vestiges of American industry would be turned into feather-bedded welfare cases, and freeborn Americans would be forced to buy their stuff from the Government store.

Protectionism will also increase Government power. The Dems will collect all of that lovely tariff money and spend it on union pension bailouts or some damn thing....

Hugo Chavez dictated such low prices on food that there is no profit and stores failed. He owns the oil company. A once prosperous country that exported is now under the control of a communist dictator (who like Castro holds "elections").

2003 - Chavez foes slam land grants - 'Agrarian Reform' and "Land Redistribution' in Venezuela ***Under the law, the land distributed to the peasants is still owned by the state, and the government must encourage the formation of peasant cooperatives and collective farms, where the state is to provide housing, health care and education. The law also gives the government power to dictate how private land can be used, based on soil conditions and the country's food-security needs.

Critics argue that the law violates the right to private property and is a throwback to state-planned communist economies."....

2004 - Venezuela to decriminalize theft "Thou shalt not steal say the Ten Commandments, but it might eventually no longer apply if you are starving in Venezuela.The poor, oil-rich nation is considering decriminalizing the theft of food and medicine in cases where a thief is motivated by extreme hunger or need.

Supreme Court Judge Alejandro Angulo Fontiveros said the so-called "famine theft" clause should be part of a broad penal code reform measure for humanitarian reasons. "This is a guide for judges to avoid injustice," said Mr Fontiveros, who is in charge of drafting the reforms. "They lock up for years a poor person who lives in atrocious misery and what they need is medicine."

2004 - Penalties Stiff for Slander in Venezuela "CARACAS, Venezuela — A new penal code approved by Venezuela's Congress would stiffen prison sentences for slander and libel, drawing criticism from opponents of President Hugo Chavez.

Chavez on Friday called the new rules an attempt to crack down on dissent.

The changes are "incompatible with freedom of expression," said Alberto Arteaga, a law professor at Venezuela's Central University who often defends opposition politicians in court.

Under the old penal code, the maximum sentence for libel was 18 months in prison. The new code, passed by Congress late Thursday, increased the maximum to four years in prison.

Sentences for slander — statements that impugn "the honor, the reputation, the respect" of a person — were lengthened from eight days to up to one year. There are no exceptions when the speech is directed at public officials."......

2005 Chavez poised to take control of banks***Caracas - Venezuela is preparing to take political control of private banks as part of a drive to spread “revolutionary” government control over the economy of the world's fifth largest oil exporter. Trino Alcides Diaz, Venezuela's banking superintendent, has privately told the heads of several of the country's banks that President Hugo Chavez wants to place two government representatives on the institutions' governing boards…..***

2007 - "BOGOTA, COLOMBIA — Delivering on campaign pledges to move Venezuela toward socialism, President Hugo Chavez announced plans Monday to nationalize the country's telephone and electricity sectors and hinted that he would seek a majority stake in so-called heavy oil projects in the Orinoco River basin.

"We are heading toward socialism, and nothing and no one can prevent it," Chavez said at a ceremony in Caracas to swear in new Cabinet members.".... Source

24 posted on 08/10/2012 4:52:12 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Post of the day!


25 posted on 08/10/2012 4:52:16 AM PDT by JCBreckenridge (Texas, Texas, Whisky)
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To: Recon Dad

Nightmare on the horizon.


26 posted on 08/10/2012 4:53:09 AM PDT by Fred911 (YOU GET WHAT YOU ACCEPT)
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To: OldEarlGray
Jubilant Bump.

Are you a Steve Keen fan?

27 posted on 08/10/2012 4:54:57 AM PDT by Stentor
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To: Fred911

....hope is going to ride out in the sunset as of 11-06-12.


28 posted on 08/10/2012 4:57:13 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Gas & Petroleum Junkie)
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To: OldEarlGray
I just wrote a perl script that attempts to emulate your intriguing prose style. Let me know what you think!



“We take the stars from heaven, the red from our mother country, separating it by white stripes, thus showing that we have separated from her, and the white stripes shall go down to posterity, representing our liberty.” ~ George Washington

FREE TRAITERS KISS MY BUTTOCKS


29 posted on 08/10/2012 4:57:30 AM PDT by agere_contra (Vote ABO. Don't choose the Greater Evil and then boast about how principled you are)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Folks better be prepared to survive a major supply disruption, at the very least. The very least.


30 posted on 08/10/2012 5:01:50 AM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
All you need to know, Hyperinflation here we come.

See chart from: http://decourcy.wordpress.com/2009/06/18/what-is-money-a-look-at-the-us-dollar/

31 posted on 08/10/2012 5:03:39 AM PDT by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
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To: pieceofthepuzzle
“7) How do you incentivize people to make more pie?”

Wean them off all forms of welfare, so that if you don't eat, you will starve.

If politicians can't do it, mathematical reality will in the end.

32 posted on 08/10/2012 5:04:00 AM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Stentor

Never heard of him.


33 posted on 08/10/2012 5:05:34 AM PDT by OldEarlGray (The POTUS is FUBAR until the White Hut is sanitized with American Tea)
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To: Travis McGee

Need more coffee. Should be, “Wean them off all forms of welfare, so if they don’t WORK they will starve.”


34 posted on 08/10/2012 5:07:42 AM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Travis McGee
Folks better be prepared to survive a major supply disruption, at the very least. The very least.

It will be a domino effect--accelerated by executive orders and dictates -- all done in the name of "correcting" the economy:

Hugo Chavez dictated such low prices on food that there is no profit and stores failed. He owns the oil company. A once prosperous country that exported is now under the control of a communist dictator (who like Castro holds "elections").

2003 - Chavez foes slam land grants - 'Agrarian Reform' and "Land Redistribution' in Venezuela ***Under the law, the land distributed to the peasants is still owned by the state, and the government must encourage the formation of peasant cooperatives and collective farms, where the state is to provide housing, health care and education. The law also gives the government power to dictate how private land can be used, based on soil conditions and the country's food-security needs.

Critics argue that the law violates the right to private property and is a throwback to state-planned communist economies."....

2004 - Venezuela to decriminalize theft "Thou shalt not steal say the Ten Commandments, but it might eventually no longer apply if you are starving in Venezuela.The poor, oil-rich nation is considering decriminalizing the theft of food and medicine in cases where a thief is motivated by extreme hunger or need.

Supreme Court Judge Alejandro Angulo Fontiveros said the so-called "famine theft" clause should be part of a broad penal code reform measure for humanitarian reasons. "This is a guide for judges to avoid injustice," said Mr Fontiveros, who is in charge of drafting the reforms. "They lock up for years a poor person who lives in atrocious misery and what they need is medicine."

2004 - Penalties Stiff for Slander in Venezuela "CARACAS, Venezuela — A new penal code approved by Venezuela's Congress would stiffen prison sentences for slander and libel, drawing criticism from opponents of President Hugo Chavez.

Chavez on Friday called the new rules an attempt to crack down on dissent.

The changes are "incompatible with freedom of expression," said Alberto Arteaga, a law professor at Venezuela's Central University who often defends opposition politicians in court.

Under the old penal code, the maximum sentence for libel was 18 months in prison. The new code, passed by Congress late Thursday, increased the maximum to four years in prison.

Sentences for slander — statements that impugn "the honor, the reputation, the respect" of a person — were lengthened from eight days to up to one year. There are no exceptions when the speech is directed at public officials."......

2005 Chavez poised to take control of banks***Caracas - Venezuela is preparing to take political control of private banks as part of a drive to spread “revolutionary” government control over the economy of the world's fifth largest oil exporter. Trino Alcides Diaz, Venezuela's banking superintendent, has privately told the heads of several of the country's banks that President Hugo Chavez wants to place two government representatives on the institutions' governing boards…..***

2007 - "BOGOTA, COLOMBIA — Delivering on campaign pledges to move Venezuela toward socialism, President Hugo Chavez announced plans Monday to nationalize the country's telephone and electricity sectors and hinted that he would seek a majority stake in so-called heavy oil projects in the Orinoco River basin.

"We are heading toward socialism, and nothing and no one can prevent it," Chavez said at a ceremony in Caracas to swear in new Cabinet members.".... Source

35 posted on 08/10/2012 5:10:30 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Excellent post. Government intervention is the kiss of death to the free market.


36 posted on 08/10/2012 5:13:15 AM PDT by agere_contra (Vote ABO. Don't choose the Greater Evil and then boast about how principled you are)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
All very true and on point except we are not a democracy... we were a federal republic... we are now a thugocracy. The difference between a republic and a democracy is in a republic... the rights and views of the minority are protected... in a democracy the majority rules... IOW we have mob rule... all powerful and whatever the mob votes for... the mob gets.

LLS

37 posted on 08/10/2012 5:19:37 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Don't Tread On Me)
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To: agere_contra

How’s that fraudulent LIBOR CDO NyLon A$$Paper digesting?


38 posted on 08/10/2012 5:22:24 AM PDT by OldEarlGray (The POTUS is FUBAR until the White Hut is sanitized with American Tea)
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To: OldEarlGray
Dude, it’s cool. Take the rest of the day off. My Perl script will take it from here



“ The dangers of a concentration of all power in the general government of a confederacy so vast as ours are too obvious to be disregarded..” ~ Franklin Pierce

Eat A$$ NYLON QU$ILING CHICOM DIRTBAG$


39 posted on 08/10/2012 5:23:20 AM PDT by agere_contra (Vote ABO. Don't choose the Greater Evil and then boast about how principled you are)
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To: ClearCase_guy

That’s what many people would argue has happened since 2008.


40 posted on 08/10/2012 5:24:50 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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