I still think “favorability” is a misleading indicator. I think a lot of people don’t want to admit they don’t like him because of the “R-ism” issue.
The real poll numbers
The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.
The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.
So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.
http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-data-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
“I think a lot of people don’t want to admit they don’t like him because of the “R-ism” issue.”
THAT, and Romney running like a scalded dog from the Chic Fil A episode, a master opportunity for the fool to stand up, for just once, on speech and religious liberty.
I guess his favorability would “plateau”, among devout Christians, and real conservatives, when he publically rebukes us by ignoring the constitutional concerns screaming in the Chic Fil A brouhaha. This is the Romney way of disinfrangizing, marginalizing the conservative Right.
I get the message and I am happy to return the favor he laid on us. Down ticket voting and letting Myth twist in the wind is the only answer if there is any future for conservative thought in the Republican Party, or elsewhere.
Those who find him likeable obviously haven’t seen him on the campaign trail. He’s one angry, nasty piece of work.
100 million on welfare, 47% on food stamps? That is the reason Bama wins all the Blue states and some Purple. Enough to nip Mitt. We just do not have enough real Americans anymore to outvote the takers. The only hope is if the takers do not come out in full force to vote then and only then could Mitt enable enough states to cobble together for the 270 electoral votes. It is a real shame that so many people want a soviet America but that seems to be the case: likeable or not, Mitt has an agenda to stop that. Many Americans now do not want it stopped. The Makers, the Producers are their enemies. See Bama in Pueblo , Col. today promising to bail out all industries if they will only give their freedom to him. Sounds very Stalinist.
I think you are right. It reminds me of a businessman I once knew, people would say something like, “Yeah, I know he’s a crook but he’s a nice guy.” I could never understand how a person can be both.