The real poll numbers
The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.
The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.
So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.
http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-data-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
I sure hope Dick Morris is right
Democrats are much harder to dislodge when all you can offer them is what was once described as "me to".
I think that was directed at Willkie, a very Romney-esque fellow, by Roosevelt in his third campaign.
A Democrat will vote for a Republican who has some fundamental ideas straight about truth, justice and the American way and who is not a weak kneed wimp.
Otherwise a Democrat will vote for another Democrat every time ~ even twice if he can get away with it.
I think that there will be historically dem states that will not only be in play but Romney will pick up. Last week, Rush mentioned a poll in Connecticut where Romney was leading by 7. Even States like Mass will be close considering that Romney was gov there and Scott Brown is running. Also, Michigan will be in play since the Romneys are from there.
The economy is getting worse, not better. And the “You didn’t build that” statement by Obama is still resonating.
Lastly, look at the Tea Party victories in Indiana, Texas as well as conservative victories this week in Kansas and Missouri. And let’s not forget about Scott Walker winning convincingly in Wisconsin in June.
The dems have shortened there convention to 3 days and have brought in Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton to speak. Still, a growing number of Dems are not going to the convention. They would still not attend if Obama was so favorable??
Finally, Romney and his PAC’s are raising much more money than Obama is for the 3 straight month. This will continue in my opinion. And Romney and the PAC’s haven’t really begun to spend their money yet.
When you look at the above, something very special is happening. I think it may even dwarf the 1980 Reagan landslide. But we have to be vigilant and ignore these misleading polls.
Dang, you had me until I found out it was dick morris.