Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.
We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 7/7/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.
Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.
Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.
It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.
| 7/7/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold/Gain |
| NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
| IN* | Richard MourdocK | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
| AZ* | Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#) | HOLD | |
| MO | Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#) | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
| NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
| WI* | Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#) | GAIN | |
| ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
| MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester* | GAIN |
| MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
| VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
| OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
| FL | Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#) | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
| MI | Primary 8/7/12 | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
| NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
| NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ | GAIN |
| PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
| WV | John Raese | Joe Manchin+ | GAIN |
| HI* | Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#) | GAIN | |
| CT* | Primary 8/14/12 | GAIN | |
| WA | Primary 8/7/12 | Maria Cantwell+ | GAIN |
| ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
| *Open Seat +Incumbent #GOP Frontrunner | |||
Oops posted this in the wrong thread, the chart kinda overlapped into the next post on my ping list
My take
NE
AZ
IN
MO
WI (with Tommy T)
ND
NV (maybe should be higher now eh :) )
MT
WI (with a different Republican than Tommy T)
MA
VA
OH
(I think we’ll win the above races, that would make 53)
FL
NM
MI
NJ
ME (it looks bad in polling but I think it’s a better chance than the below)
PA
HI
CT
WV (wish it was much higher)
WA
Where, on your chart, is the line drawn where the “Most Likely” “pick-up and holds” ends and the “Less Likely” begins. I’m thinking between Florida and Michigan. Florida and above, I think we have a good chance of taking or holding. Michigan on down.... not so hopeful. Michigan reelected Jenny Granholm Governor when that State was ranked 49th Economically, just above Mississippi. And the dolts reelected her.