Where, on your chart, is the line drawn where the “Most Likely” “pick-up and holds” ends and the “Less Likely” begins. I’m thinking between Florida and Michigan. Florida and above, I think we have a good chance of taking or holding. Michigan on down.... not so hopeful. Michigan reelected Jenny Granholm Governor when that State was ranked 49th Economically, just above Mississippi. And the dolts reelected her.
Good question. My personal opinion is that NE through MA would fit in the Most Likely, VA through NM would be Toss Ups at this point, and NJ through ME would be early Christmas gifts.
It’s hard to analyze races where the candidates haven’t even been decided yet. By late August, when all candidates are known, we may start to see how things are trending.
It’s early to get a handle on the mood of the electorate. If they’re as ticked off as they were in 2010 - and that may well be the case with Obamacare and the sour economy, we might see trends favoring the GOP.