So what does he call Arkansas 4th? Safe Democrat? Most local Democrats I speak to expect a Republican pickup.
AR-04 is not on Rothenberg’s list of the 66 seats he thinks are in play. So he probably considers it Safe-R with Ross retiring.
John McCain got 58% of the vote there in 2008.
“So what does he call Arkansas 4th? Safe Democrat? Most local Democrats I speak to expect a Republican pickup.”
All these pollsters are the same. Rasmussen shows McCaskill as a tossup when Silverman is over 50% and nine points ahead of her. It’s always the same, they stick with the incumbent until the eleventh hour. It’s the same with Heller in Nevada, but he’s the appointed incumbent at 51% with his opponent ( a worthless liberal ex professor transplant) polling only 40%. Go figure!
Both Sabato and Rothenberg have AR-4 as safe REPUBLICAN now.
I wouldn’t have thought so, I fully expect to win but I’d still give the rats a sliver of a chance.
But I won’t argue with with them on that!!!!!
I will argue with a bunch of their other rankings. I think both are being too charitable to the other side and putting too many GOP seats in play.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-houses-15-closest-contests/
Sabato is fixating on a mere 15 seats which he calls tossups and said he expects the rats to win of 10 them (I don’t) and that will net them just 3 seats. But he says even a “Romney romp” wouldn’t guarantee that we gain a mere 5 seats.
Sabato I think is just a moron,. He has Hochul and McIntyre not only winning but he doesn’t even rank those as tossups.
I am not an “expert” but I consider myself a skilled amateur and while I have yet to do a comprehensive state by state look I see very little net partisan change happening, which both experts seem to agree with. Unlike them though I think we are as likely to gain 5 as to lose 5.
And I think the rat’s actually getting to 218 is all but impossible. +10 seems to be the high limit for them unless circumstances change drastically.